Does Anybody Wants More Chops?

I’ve seen choppy markets before, but it seems like Oil and Gold are up one day, down the next , up one day, down the next.  It can be very difficult to navigate the choppiness, but Cash is also a position until we get a nice trending market.  Other trade set ups are an option too. Lets take a look at the charts.

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SPX – Short term I see a choppy triangle forming, and the larger picture might be forming a rising wedge. We can look for follow through with a break down or a break out.

USD –  Even the USD is choppy, unable to break out above the 50 & 200sma.  Those specific price markers are on this chart for you to watch as the day goes forward.

WTIC – More sideways chop.  These are pretty big moves for Oil, up & down roughly 3%. I do not think that Sept 1 or Sept 20 are dcls, so here is something to watch for…  we could break those lows, but not the ICL August lows.  This would cause people to start shorting oil on a break down, and then a dcl could form and Oil would move higher. Maybe a tag of the 200sma?

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This is Gold & Silver as I write this morning. That shows the choppiness continuing with a sell off that recovers. Anyone want to guess what happens by midday?  By the end of the day? Lets zoom out.

GOLD – I would expect a sell off below the $1305.50 to give us an ICL. This would be a great buying opportunity, but we sold off on Tuesday and so far this morning, we are getting another bounce.  I may never enjoy chops again!  Look at the size of this sideways chop. Is that trade-able?  It looked it at times, when the lows formed, but the joy was short lived.

SILVER – I wanted to look at the big picture too. There will be some great upside in Silver, look at that base.  The problem is that many are getting frustrated and tired of waiting.   Trust me,  there will be some good trading and good money will be made for those that do not lose sight of the bigger picture. For now we are looking at more choppiness and patience is necessary. .

Miners get a lot of attention.  I do have people ask if I think that the Miners put in an ICL in August, since the selling was steep and steady.  I did consider that as a possibility, but it is important to note that that would have been only 3 months after the May ICL  ( LATE MAY).  So let me show you what I have in the back of my mind with Miners.

GDX – Watch the $25.17 area, this is the lowest point from the August sell off. Please note that after the steep sell off, we have simply chopped around, sideways price action frustrates both Longs and shorts right now. Think about people that bought NUGT or DUST. 

GDX – Now look at the ICL formation of May 2014.  A steep sell off and then a choppy sideways frustrating move for W-E-E-K-S. At the end of that period of time there was simply a 2 or 3 day quick flash drop. Think of how many longs got stopped out, and how many others went short and THEN price took off higher when no one dared to buy.We may be in that sideways chop now.  🙁

WE WILL BE READY TO BUY IF THAT HAPPENS HERE, but are you patient enough to wait out the choppiness?  It is not easy day by day, but it will be rewarding.

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Right now, the Energy and Precious Metals markets are very choppy and hard to make any lasting gains unless you buy a reversal and sell it within a day. Chartfreak is not a day-trading website, though we do discuss shorter term trades in the comments section.  For now, I think we are watching the FAT PITCH setting up.  We will make very good gains in the future once the sideways chop ends. Are we seeing exactly what happened in early 2014 play out again? I cannot say that for sure, but so far we had the steep sell off and a whole lot of sideways choppiness chewing up time and frustrating everyone. Patience will pay off.  

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~ALEX

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I will add this- I posted charts at the last low and discussed buying some trade set ups.  Maybe you sold some for a little profit, maybe you held on in case they stay strong?  I bought a few and have sold ASM.  Others that I own, I may just hold on to.  Why?  Some may just do very well on the next run and may not make new lows.  For example: Goro has remained very bullish.This will probably hold up rather well if we get a sell off. Yes it could drop to the 50sma, or it might just go sideways.

NG –  This was Nova Gold with Gold selling off $11 yesterday .  AU, RIC,  and a few others also did the same, so some Miners may try to hold up despite selling.   Reminder:   I pointed out in some earlier reports that some Miners bottomed well before the final lows of January 2016 and NG and RIC were 2 of those companies.

I mentioned HMY a week ago and showed how HMY might only bounce and then sell off again to $3.00 area. It has been dipping down the past few days and I really like the potential longer term.

 I think that it could drop to $3, but I will not sell what I own, I will add if it does.  $3 to $6 is very attainable, but even $3- $9 is not out of the question here. The longer term weekly charts are finally reaching oversold, yet the RSI is staying bullish. $3 to $12 in this longer term chart is also attainable with a core position.

ALSO –

Instead of simply repeating myself day after day, reporting chop after chop,  I may start to place a few trade set ups from other sectors in the reports for those that want to trade shorter term. The biotech area has some great set ups, but the risks are HUGE with biotech stocks due to individual trial results, FDA rejection, etc. etc.  You can trade XBI or IBB ( LABU if you are experienced with 3x ETFs). The gains are pretty small  in my opinion for XBI or IBB, unless you use options or another method. 

For the higher risk takers, many set ups are looking good in individual stocks.  May I recommend keeping positions small or manageable, in case company specific problems result.

KTOV – Can this return to $6?  Yes, these patterns often do.  It sold off at resistance yesterday.

CRMD –  This is an example of how they can climb.  Not always straight up, but they often form cups using the 10sma as a step.

BCRX has been a steady climber, CALA and EYES are tight bases that I am watching, so I may start just showing trades and market reviews will be brief.  JUNO, MACK, VBLT, CARA were mentioned in the comments area yesterday