WEEKEND REPORT Aug 14- TORN

The past few weeks of trading have been very good. Active traders have been able to find set up after set up, especially in Miners and now Energy. Some that Bought Miners in late May and Early June are still reaping rewards, and we have been looking at Energy trades for the past 2 weeks too. I am just a little torn about what I am seeing in some areas.  For example, The General Markets broke to new highs and consolidated, but the VIX is very low. Also I’ve mentioned the  lack of follow through in Golds Pop at the open for the last 3 days, etc.  Lets go through our weekend update and review our weeks activity.

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SPX – After a long sideways consolidation, we had a pop and basically more consolidation.

The Markets should have a strong move after such a long consolidation, but so far they are just continuing sideways and the VIX is at a point that usually ushers in a temporary top. Cycle-wise, we are due for a DCL soon,  so I’d expect that we get a drop soon.

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SPX WKLY – That drop could back test the break out or the 10ma.

The VIX is back around 11, and that can POP and cause the markets to drop.  This was the VIX on Wednesday and it is a bullish Vix / bearish Markets sell off  (short term at least).

USD  – The USD is only on day 8 of a new daily cycle The initial run higher out of the low displayed weakness in the macd. I’d like to see the $USD bounce to the 200sma, and Gold to do a dip, then both reverse course, but I dont always get what I want.

USD WKLY – Neutral to bullish looking, but only because of the wicks on the bottom of each candle. My big picture view since 2015 of a double top in place still stands.

WTIC  – On day 7 of a new daily cycle and most likely an new Intermediate Cycle, Oil is acting correctly. We’ll see if the 50sma offers any resistance, but it should only be temporary if it does.

WTIC WKLY – Week 2

XLE – The XLE is actually almost back at the highs, and is still making higher lows.

GOLD 

This is, according to ‘seasonality’,  usually one of the most Bullish times for Gold, so maybe we should expect a drop before a pop (contrarian view) ? 😉 .  As mentioned in my Friday update, Gold keeps moving up Higher in pre-market, then it runs higher during morning trading, and sells off  by the end of the day.  This has me Torn about how to view Gold & Miners shorter term ( as mentioned in Fridays report). I’m not bearish long term at all as you’ll see in a minute, but I’m trimming a few positions to lock in some great profit, until I see more upside buying. Lets review the current situation.

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GOLD – This has the look of weakness, and it closed below my trend line Friday. Now I have a close below the trend line and the 10sma, and actually it has been closing below the 10sma for the past 5 days. We are on day 16, and I really expect a drop here, not a pop higher. This would then be a left translated daily cycle if it breaks down completely. Not ideal, but a triangle formation would negate that for me, and a drop and then a burst higher would too. For example: A drop to the 50sma and then a new high on say Day 22 would be a R.T. Daily .

GOLD WKLY – 6 strong weeks higher and then consolidation. It is normal at this point. If Gold rolls over it could drop to and back test the 200 ma on this weekly chart over time.

GOLD WKLY #2 – Gold is on Week 10, so I just wanted to point out that week 10 can be early, and in the last intermediate cycle, Gold went sideways for weeks too.

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GOLD BIGGER PIC – How exactly we get there remains to be seen, but we are at resistance and likely working up steam to break out higher. It is a BULLISH set up in the big picture.

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GDX –

GDX from Thursday. I was seeing and pointing out weakness with my indicators.

GDX – Day 14 gave us a new high in Miners, but then they gave up their gains again going into the close. Weakness continues. Lets see what Next week brings, and re-read Fridays report if necessary.

GDX – It is still an uptrend in the big picture.

We really need to see what happens next week as these variables play out. I do expect a Pop in the VIX, and a drop in the markets. SO far that move has been drawn out and pushed off.  I like the look of Oil and Energy for the past 2 weeks I have mentioned bullish set ups and but the dip opportunities that might arise.   They’d be low risk entries, because your stop could be below the higher low. I mentioned a few energy stocks in the Thursday and Friday report of Aug 4th and 5th. I will look for more set ups as things play out.

Re – read Fridays report if you forget what I was looking for in Gold & Miners. We pretty much got 1 more day of the same thing, except that Gold looks like it broke the uptrend line and remains under the 10sma on a daily chart. Will it jump back above it Monday or Tuesday?  Will weakness prevail? 

We need more time to clarify the next direction.

Be cautious, alert and remain Frosty – not panicky.

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~ALEX

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GOLD LONG TERM: I forgot to add this chart, and this possibility is one of my more likely scenarios