Weekend Aug 6th – Good News
And the good news is, I see quite a few bears falling asleep again. Our trading has been fantastic in 2016, especially in the beaten down Precious Metals sector, Commodities like Steel and Aluminum stocks did well, and Oil and Energy. The bears had attacked these sectors for quite a while, but now it seems that when one sector runs strongly and then gets a little tired, another one that was selling off begins perking up. That seemingly bearish selling fades and the baby bear goes to sleep, allowing us to do some sector rotation in our trading.
This weekend we’ll discuss which bears look to be calling it a day, and also review Gold, Silver, and Miners. We should discuss what happened Friday and whether it is the start of something big, or just a little noise. lets review…
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SPX – We’ve been watching this constructive consolidation for a while. This was the Aug 1st chart.
SPX – The Jobs report gave it the needed boost to put any thoughts of a bearish drop to sleep for a while. The dip 3 days ago was likely a 1/2 cycle low of this daily cycle.
Lets look at the weekly chart …
SPX WKLY – We are at all time highs, so you can get a run away move. I do want to point out what happened into Oct 2012 after a similar break out though. After the daily cycle completes, we can get a pretty deep pullback to the 30 or 50 weekly ma.
USD WKLY – This looks bullish, at least for the short term. We just saw a POP in the USD on the jobs report, and a drop by Gold & Silver. If the dollar is to make a quick run, will metals have a quick drop? We’ll keep that in mind, and discuss precious metals later in this report.
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WTIC – Looks like a possible daily cycle low, maybe an ICL is in place. The timing is right for both ( leaning a little on the short side, but the timing is right for an ICL). Lets see if the weekly looks like we may have a higher low permanent bottom.
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WTIC WKLY– This looks complete with a higher low in place from the Feb Low. It is week 25 and the highs were on week 17. That is a right translated cycle = Bullish. I expect a run to above $60 this year.
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THE CRB also has put in a low. This makes sense since it also has OIL/Energy in it.
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GOLD , SILVER, and MINERS
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GOLD – This wasn’t looking strong and the drop Friday was the result. Now it has to hold up or else it may start to give up important support.
Longer term wkly charts remain healthy looking.
Consolidation above $19.27 is o.k. If we get a repeat of the consolidation & then run higher, Silver could go to $23-$26.
Consolidation in weekly Silver chart is taking place. It looks healthy here too.
GDX – This could be a 1/2 cycle low type of a drop. If so, I would think that this chart needs to stop dropping and give us some sideways movement to repair the divergence.
Here you can see that GDX is pushing on the top of the rising price channel, and this often causes volatility.
WKLY topping candlein most cases after a strong run higher.
CDE – Though silver looks weakish, a few silver stocks climbed right back after the drop Friday as shown below.
I’ve discussed Energy stocks recently as possibly setting up bullishly with a low in Oil forming. Fridays report had several charts, and I want to add a few more ideas here.
ERF – Back near 2016 highs already. That says a lot about the strength of this one.
OAS DAILY – Quite a move from $6.50 to over $8.50, but it’s really just getting going. If we get a pullback, I’ll buy it because…
OAS – The weekly is just getting going. You could even buy it here, this will likely double. Big weekly reversal, higher low.
BTE WKLY – Once this gets going, I dont see a lot of resistance. I took a position in BTE last week, even though I am jumping the gun without solid confirmation and follow through that Oil has put in an ICL.
SHIPPERS may be bottoming too. I mentioned this in the chat section Friday . I have seen MANY shippers put out earnings, and break out upside. That is a positive. I posted this list of shippers for those that want to look up their charts. I will post a couple below. ( AMRS and ODP are not shippers, I dont know how they got into my list).
SB – I saw what looks like a bullish triangle nearing the apex, and earnings have already been released. I like it because…
SB WKLY- The weekly shows great potential. Do you see this? SB went from $0.29 to $1.50 in stealth mode. This has been an extremely bullish move from a beaten down Shipper, yet if flies under the radar.
SBLK WKLY –
Look up SINO, SHIP and you’ll see they’ve popped 45% and 145%. These are not without risk, the sector can be very volatile, so I plan on mentioning it here for active experienced traders, and I will keep an eye on it for set ups that others may want to take in time, after they prove themselves. I do like these set ups and will likely buy SB as it works around that triangle pattern (Stop below the apex).
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I thought about posting more shipping charts and Energy charts, but instead I want to release this report early Sunday. We will look at these areas and more as the week unfolds. Increased confirmation comes with time. I see many possible opportunities in the weeks ahead to add to our gains and winning trades. Thanks for being a chartfreak!
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Keeping core in metals miners Alex?
My ‘Core’ positions are for holding and riding the wiggles and pull backs.
The core position for me ( In the U.S. ) is to avoid paying a higher tax on gains . Taxes are less for positions held over 1 yr. Some are bought and tucked away last January 15th onward, so that can just be held for yrs or at least a yr
I’m still in newer positions too, nothing has been violated in this report, there is just divergence that indicates volatility and consolidation is likely. Stops protect shorter term positions ( metal or physical stops) though Friday may have triggered a few of them.
Thanks for another early report, Alex – you’re spoiling us, ya know
Your welcome Cal,
I would love to sit down and write a weekend report early each week actually, but I do set aside the weekend for family. My wife was away helping her family after her dad had surgery last week, and since I was available to help out during the week, I took care of things here this weekend and had some of the time that I usually spend with her available again.
So try not to get toooooo spoiled : ) Its a balancing act on weekends .
If silver hangs in and consolidates and moves higher how long would you expect it to take to move to 23-6?ty
Hi Rm
Timing a consolidation is not easy, maybe even impossible. I usually take things one step at a time.
Once the consolidation breaks, $23 would be quick, but if it doesn’t break out, 26 will not be tagged before the ICL. The ICL will catch up to it ‘time-wise’ . Silver will not escape a drop into an intermediate low if time runs out I.M.O.
Got it ty so 4-6 weeks would be an appropriate guesstimate at this point based on where we are in the IC?
Guesstimate is a good word 🙂 Here is how I picture it at this point. My big picture charts did show Gold getting above $1400 and even $1470ish.
As a rough estimate, I was picturing the IC to begin dropping maybe late Aug or early September, and then I pictured the ICL to come in possibly around the end of October. They usually last 5 to 6 months from ICL to ICL, and the last one was at the end of May. 5 months fro m there would lead to the end of Oct. Within that time frame, I’d say that the peak of this intermediate cycle could be Aug or Sept.
With that said, do you think that Energy is a better play than miners at the moment? 60/40 energy? or is it worth more of a slant?
Also, with the potential for an ICL to be in place in energy, do you think leverage is appropriate?
I do like the way Oil / Energy is setting up, and I do usually use leverage when the ICL is in place. AT TIMES, you can get a meandering at the lows that makes leverage difficult, but if we are looking at THE LOWS of that bear mkt for oil to be in place last Feb ( And I do think that is the case), the next higher low should be a strong buy and should have a good run higher. My only hesitation is that the low may be in, or it may get undercut ( shake out) since we are early in timing for a low. I like to see a close above the 10sma for a couple of days to help confirm the buying.
I also think that some Miners will still do very well, so I am looking at Miners, and still holding my miners at this point / looking at good set ups in Energy / and I kind of have an eye on shippers too ( they have been much more volatile and difficult to trade in the past. Performance may vary within each sector.
Watching the markets today ( really needed another day or two to answer this accurately) , it could be time to at least have a split account. I dont know which % is best yet , 60/40 …70/30…50/50, but the beaten down energy stocks look very willing to recover.
Great! Thanks Alex!
Yeah, miners action and forecast a little cloudy for me. I want to maintain a ‘core’ but need a bit more cushion before holding through a future ICL drop. Up pretty good on many miners still since last DCL and both don’t want to give it up nor jump out too early b/c of one bad day Friday. What are other folks doing – mostly hanging in here?
I got antsy too seeing Alex’s comment about charts of Gold and Silver “not acting correctly”. Scared me. So, I spent some time this weekend doing some research on my individual companies and then putting them in groups. I already have a “core” group I will just hold because I got them so low and already took some profits. Some are “lotto ticket” types. [I look at 4 year chart to keep them in perspective. I want more in that “core” if they look good. So, I now have list of holdings I like and want to sell some for profit and keep the rest for my core… so I am watching them to dare to let them go as high as possible before selling the partial position. I also have a list of holdings I am looking to dump [some still in red so would like to wait a bit so as to not take a loss.] This way I will still have funds to trade in and out of. Right now, I am all in.
I like it, might try to replicate that this week/next weekend. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Yeah, some of these smaller ones that move fast might not be the ones I want to hold but some like MUX, EXK, SA have been strong. BTG has been cleaning up last 2 weeks as well.
I’ve been listening to conference calls too..it gives you the “feel” of the management and direction they are heading. I just would like to understand more of what things mean on financial side of earnings. MUX is in my core. BTG is one I am watching to sell some of and keep some in my core. I unfortunately sold out of EXK in fear at one point, then it ran off without me! SA I never had.
Did not have much $ left but I bought into BBG last week to have some skin in the oil game. I did really well with that one last time so thought I would try again.
BOUGHT LGCY at the open
Aw…man…now you’ve done it. I’m back in LGCY. :O
Yeah, It was in my Friday report I think. Nice small base on a 2 month chart, earnings out already ( less surprise, but I do not like their debt, just the chart), Broke above the 10sma in that base, and then the 2 yr wkly….promising. 🙂
Yeah, was looking at the chart this morning and really liked the base it’s layed out. I tried a few months back on LGCY and it didn’t work out but 50-day
was right there so at least stop was nearby and obvious.
I am trying to pick some long term core positions in some of these energy stocks… the accum/dist line on the daily and weekly doesn’t seem promising to hold for longer term core position, do you agree? quick trade for sure, yes..
WOW! SN must have had very good earnings, up 16% this morning
Hoping to get out of the red on that one!
EMES also released
LPI, BTE, WLL, DNR – All 7% or more so far!
Just saw that – now up 25%!
Those that followed me in on the AXU trade ( got in around $1.60) it is now breaking out and it is doing so with good volume. I like that a lot, but they do release earnings after the close Wednesday. Something to consider.
Gains are so good at this point that one could hold on and anticipate a possible surprise to the upside, or if a position is heavy, take partial profits off of the table
ALSO EXK looks ready to break out – silver stocks are shining ( pun intended).
Took the SB trade this morning, mentioned in the report. Added to BTG
EVERYTHING looks pretty good : )
Agreed. SIL (silver stocks ETF) is up 2.23% with heavy 1 hr volume. On pace for 550K volume for the day which is very strong. Bodes well for the underlying metal.
Glad I didn’t let Fri trick me into selling!! Gold should want to set a new high in this cycle, right? GDX/J already have last week as well as numerous ind. miners we’ve discussed.
Alex, your NAK was an awesome call as well:) I’m up 50% on it and do want to thank you! Holding it as a core.
I’m still holding it too…I have 4 charts for tonights report discussing it longer term. The charts are great. There is substantial risk though.
I have read GREAT things about NAK, and also the “All or nothing” stories, so it is a tough one to hold for core.
if your position is small to medium, thats fine, if it is huge, you could take some just in case. Here is part of their story in my own words from memory, so dont quote me on this…
The ALL or NOTHING story is that they sit on HUGE amts of precious metals in Alaska – even if they were bought out for the gold in the ground, it would be big. The value of the stock if they start producing from this area is very valuable. The hard part is that Alaska has to approve their permits to dig the gold/silver/metals up, and that part of Alaska is precious to them….I believe that the greatest amount of Salmon comes from there, they spawn there, etc and that is a huge industry for them / good jobs / etc , and they can’t afford an accidental contamination with the waste from Mining.
So for NAK to get the necessary permits to get at the precious metals is an ongoing process.
Recently Eric sprott acquired 5,4% of shares in NAK. I think few news letter also recommended recently. It is keep going up…
Alex, what is your take on NSU?
They released good earnings and you got that nice pop & run, now it has pulled back to the 10sma .
Still has a gap below that may or may not fill.
The weekly charts candle was ugly, but the daily looks like a normal correction
Does anyone have any recommendations for a good, economical data provider, for end of day futures data?
http://www.investing.com/
I still own this one too, and that is a break out with nice volume. I like it .
Did I mention below that I took that SB trade this a.m..
Earnings out, nice chart in this report on a wkly and daily ( triangle at apex, breaking out today with good volume).
50 week moving avg might cap this temporarily @1.4? watching to break out that level too
Yes, refresh –
I think it could blow right through the 50wma ( and yes, that is $1.40) due to the recent base / consolidation and it broke above 50% RSI on the weekly. It may just have the strength to make the move.
yep, nice chart and I agree and its a more a matter of when… waiting to join you on above $1.40 on this 🙂
You witing for a close above? I only ask because You better be quick, I’m waiting to add above $1.40 , and its just sitting there now….pushing pushing pushing : ) – lol
I do like the chart set up
lol, it is just sitting right at that level there teasing me… yep, i am waiting for it at the close today.
What a nice OPEC surprise. Glad I read those chartfreak reports and got OAS and LGCY before the close Friday. Good lookin’ out Alex! *double bort*
Nice grab Bort, glad to help 🙂
OAS is just going straight up. Crazy sauce!
You must have a Monday off ? : )
Yep! Whole week off, it’s beach time. Oh, and CF time!
Ya, I wish I had MORE of it! 🙂 Glad I have some though!
Funny how that lines up right at the recent lows in oil and just as the chart firms up, eh?
Fidelity platform now indicates AUMN will announce earnings today after the close. We’ll see….
Thanks Pat – Good to know, I hadn’t seen anything. I owned a lot and sold a lot just from the uncertainty.
I can always get back in after the earnings.
Thanks, was going to ask if anyone had seen, b/c I still hadn’t…
Sounds like I’ll need to keep this one! 🙂
🙂 afternoon friends… Rockin out the join CF .. 😉 woop
G-Afternoon Maria ( barely)
You in DNR? DQ? AREX? The Energy stocks are definitely waking back up here
yes yes and yes … how the heck did u know? ur cray cray.. and SN .. and stalking VSLR – ER today… hmmmmmmm
also gold&silver miners… still love..
I know, It’s so hard to go shopping when there are so many sales of valuable items.
I’m slowly cutting Miners back just to maintain cash and have entered Energy beats downs starting last week, and the rewards do keep coming ( So far).
And I bought SB at the open.
really surprised there is no gif for peckerhead…..
oh.. actually there is … I’ll grab it for you…
*follow the red arrow
** oops – that arrow is a tad bit off — should be pointing to the ducks.
**or ISSSSS it … ??? muahhh ha ha ha hahhh
*THATS a knee slapper
that guy is definitely a real ducker
That guy looks like a nice guy…he even stops to feed the ducks during trading hours?
I give him a big thumbs up : )
There’s your dip in OAS for an entry with all other energy and oil still near highs
Cason it could be that the pressure from covering shorts is winding down.
Makes sense for sure.
A lot of the early runners in energy reversed lower with crude this afternoon. Maybe turning around to pick some more folks up? 🙂
My OAS finally is back in the green.
GDX running but metals going nowhere. Maybe a tell that SLV and GLD will perk up tomorrow?
PACD up 27%….That girl is in my basket and just about jumped out of said basket ! 😉
my kinda girl… 😉
That stock did a 1:10 split in May , its really only a 60 cent debt wagon, and I’ve warned you 100 times about these low priced Juniors! – lol
Chart looks awesome though : ) And how about that TPLM while we’re at it
My friend you apparently have not looked at the financials of PACD: 🙂
Operating Margin % :
2012: 24%
2103: 28%
2014: 34%
2015: 29%
YTD: 21%
It is right up there with my favorite girl: WG.
refresh –
Isnt it funny – Right back at the 2016 lows and had to do a 1:10 reverse split to stay listed.
Look at the chart, and it has gone 40cents to $1,20 ish and back to 40 cents split adjusted in 2016.
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You don’t like the chart?
I see higher highs and higher lows with very good margins.
That thing was a +$100 dollar stockade few years back when Crude was higher obviously, but if we get to your $60 Crude ……..
I am seeing Crude,s Aug. 1 25 week ICL, do you concur?
If so, I am seeing wave 3 just beginning………
Mine too ! 😉
shazammmmm
Lol……. 😉
WG also in said basket up 12% today.
Not to mention my USO Dec. Calls …….. moving stop up to protect profits.
ALEX…. this morning I would like to buy some BTE and ERF, but…. it was strong up.
Is it wise to wait or buy it now Alex?
Hi Geurt – I left for a while and came back after the mkts closed or close to it. Sorry I missed this. I added today, the charts I drew show that they could double over time, so with Oil up, I added. I can always put a stop below support..
Also, it depends on what you are looking for, and if you can buy here and take a little pull back if it does happen, or not. It looks like Oils lows are in. BTE & ERF – could pull back , yes. It might not, yes. It might run straight up for 10 days like we’ve seen some do in the past? yes. It might pull back tomorrow? yes.
There is no way for me to know if these will go straight up day after day . Some Miners have in the past and some energy stocks did too, with out pull back. Will they run 3 days and drop 2 days , run 3 days and drop 2 days? I dont know. . So what do you do when you don’t know that? You have to make a decision if you can take a little draw down or not. It can happen, it might not.
My weekly charts of these showed that they both could double from here- so you kind of make up your mind how picky you want to be on your entry. Like I have said in the past, when faced with that decision, I start a starter position and if it continues higher, I like it and may add to it. If it dips, I might add if it looks healthy.
I hope that helps, but I’m not sure if it does.
Yes, this helps a lot my dear.
You explained it excellent. It’s not only these two stocks but many times you have stock XXX in your report, the markets go open and it took off immediately, then I think I’m too late, and doubt what shall I do?
Any way… take it one day in your reports ALEX.
Again THANKS a LOT, and have a good evening.
Hey Guert, one of the things I’ve learned and practiced with CF is grabbing a starter position- 1/2 or 1/3 depending on your plan, and then add if it goes down, you’ve lowered your cost basis. If it goes straight up, you still have some so you’re making money. Just testament that the little guys can get this right, too!
That’s a good idea Cason, it feels good that we are at least in the trade!!! Thank-you-very-much for your response and advice.
Sleep well, if bed calls you tonight.
I will point something helpful out in tonights report Geurt.
I may not have time to finish / release it until the morning though. It might help with your question.
See you tomorrow-morning D.V. I trust it helps me Alex.
Look forwards to your lectures.
Go now to bed and you sleep well.
ECA.TO just had some volume spikes
Same with PXT.TO
Alex, how does CLF look to you now? Is it time to lighten up on that?
CLF looks good
look at it from May using a 10 & 20 sma. It runs up , then goes sideways, then it runs higher, then it goes sideways, then it runs up, then it goes sideways. Now it has gone sideways… I’d just use s rising stop and let it take me out of the trade. Longer term I think it goes much higher like X did.
But it doesn’t come back down much either!!
Bill … Thought you might find the action in BREW over the past 5 days interesting!
I’m trying to help them out!
giggle…
Alex, should we sell IAG now because of the bought deal offer? GSS,GPL,VGZ all went lower and lower after similar things. Thanks
It is a tough call, isn’t it? To sell or not to sell, will it drop further or not.? No one really knows, so you must make a personal decision based on what you do know, instead of what you dont know.
GPL and VGZ did drop further, SAND did and then took off higher. I would need to ask myself if I an in it long term, or do I want to grab the gains and move on.
I sold mine when they did the offering, but it wasn’t a tough decision, my VGZ went lower than my entry. I wanted to put the money in a fresh set up. Others dropped and I grabbed profit and reinvested on the next best set up too.
I liked GPL as a silver stock, but I knew that I could always come back later ( I never did, I didnt love the set up enough yyet, but I’ve used those funds to trade other set ups. ).
Hope that helps a bit
Alex, Is THM chart still good to hold it? It’s break even for me now. Thanks
I’m getting wore out on XRA, probably need to can that position shortly.
It is tough to tell at this point, but it kind of looks like it wants to form a large Bull Flag before breaking out. Can you picture it? So If it breaks 90 cents, this is not likely to be a bull flag.
I took VGZ off the table at 1.52.
Another one bites the dust!! IAG financing announced tonight. I’m showing down 7.5% AH. 🙁
http://www.iamgold.com/English/investors/news-releases/news-releases-details/2016/IAMGOLD-Announces-200-Million-Bought-Deal-Financing/default.aspx
From our friends at IAG!! (refresh)
Ah, rats!!! I’ll probably sell first thing in morning…..we’ll see…have a gain in there (for now..)- actually thought about selling today but held on instead – well rats. I wonder if there is any tell tale sign that we could look back at certain companies and see if there was any clue given in advance….IAG has good current ratio, quick ratio, assets outweigh liabilities – I wouldn’t have thought they would do an offering….
Alex. Need your thoughts on VGZ – Hold, Accumulate or get out
What was your plan when you got in… just a short term trade to make gains or longer term hold.?
If short term trade taken recently , I would personally sell it.
If a long term core position from well below, It is probably going to be way higher later. IT ran from 25 cents to $2.00, so it is a normal pull back in a bull market, but it can go lower from here.
Really busy with work this month, just wanted to pop in and say thanks while I can. Some great calls and sound advice as usual Alex.
Hope everyone has a great week.
Thanks Daz – Much appreciated!