Wednesday Aug 3

/70 Comments/in /by

SPX – The SPX has been consolidating sideways and Tuesday it started to sell off a bit more. I mentioned that we could get a back test, but it recovered a good amount into the close.  So not a whole lot has changed here  (again).

SPX 8-2

A bit of a different look for the DOW and the NYSE  🙂

NYSE 8-2

 

$USD – The dollar broke below the 50 & 200sma, but it is due for a dcl. I expect a bounce and we’ll see if it rolls over from there.  Weakness is a bit more evident lately.

USD 8-2

 

 

WTIC – I recently pointed out in the chart below the 50% retrace as a possible support area in Oil.

OIL 8-1

We are there now, but OILS cycles can extent, selling can bounce up & down and drag on forever.  It is best to wait for some sign of strength. I’m watching that trend line. 

WTIC 8-2

 

NATGAS – The MACD weak looking, but we’ll see if NATTY falls to support nd can turn up.  It looks bullish. 

NATTY 8-2

 

GOLD – Nearing a break to new highs and we are still early in this daily cycle so we should get new highs soon.

GOLD 8-2

 

GDX –  Already broke to new highs.  Day 6, this could pause a bit, even back test.  I see bearish divergence in the RSI, but I just expect a sideways type move. We were getting GAP GAP GAP in Miners in earlier runs.  This is a bit less exciting.

GDX 8-2

 

GDX – In Mondays report I also mentioned that in prior runs we have a MACD cross and then a sideways move. I expect it here.

GDX 8-1

GDX:GLD –  So miners are still leading the Metal here, this remains a bullish set up.

GDX vs GLD 8-2

 

So we are still fairly early in this daily cycle for Metals and Miners.  I pointed out in yesterdays report that in prior runs, we got a MACD cross in Miners and then just a sideways move or drop to build more steam. Don’t be surprised to see that here. 

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I may not be around in the the comments section a whole lot today.  I will be visiting someone having surgery for most of the day.  They probably have WIFI in the waiting room, so I might pop in, but I just want to mentioned now that Earnings are being released in some miners. AUMN releases earnings Thursday Pre-Market for example.   Some Miners are responding well after their release, others are ‘iffy’ or lack luster.  Know your positions and either ride it out or lighten up a little ( or a lot).   Things can get a little unpredictable so just remember that the bear can come out of nowhere, and yes, the bull can run away with out you, but there is always another trade.  Know your positions.

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~ALEX

70 replies
    • deshy
      deshy says:

      ugh!! It’s getting tough these days to figure out which miners are “safe”. Two days they reported profits and then get hit with this. Sold half for no good reason yesterday…clearly wasn’t enough. Oh well. Anybody follow this one closely enough to think it will recover soon….or a laggard like GPL? Thx

      • R Byram
        R Byram says:

        too bad, but thankfully I have not participated in this one yet. Just for interest sake, GPL is up over 20% off its July 25 post-financing low, and SAND is up 32% off the June 29 post financing low.

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            Maybe adding will work? I just let GPL sit there, still not up to breakeven so that technique wasn’t the best!

        • Cason
          Cason says:

          I bought SAND on ‘sale’ after that news and it has worked out nicely. I already had GPL so rode that down. I can tell you, I have a VERY different view btw those two situations.

          Yeah, starting to get sick of this with the juniors. If they have a good chart but there is a 50/50 chance of a landmine? No thanks, way too much risk. So, I’m eating VGZ now as well, but I do have a basket and certainly not all eggs in VGZ. But this is happening TOO OFTEN.

      • nancytheartist
        nancytheartist says:

        I have this one too. Very annoying. As R Byram points out, in this bull, they seem to be held down awhile then recover. I have noticed that about bad earnings reports as well…unless it is REALLY bad like hinting at bankruptcy.

  2. Rob
    Rob says:

    Thanks, Alex!

    So I have been wondering why HBM has been going sideways for a while. Seems like the stock is being downgraded to neutral in at least two places. Support at the 50 sma for the last two months, but no real traction. I have a little bit of HBM warrants. I might sell and get into BAA if price in both securities is stable tomorrow.

    http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2016/08/02/hudbay-minerals-inc-hbm-downgraded-by-bmo-capital-markets-to-market-perform/

    http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2016/07/28/hudbay-minerals-inc-hbm-downgraded-to-neutral-at-csfb/

  5. Cason
    Cason says:

    Bill, dumped my NUGT this morning. At yesterday’s high by first tranche was up nearly 60%, just didn’t make sense to let that slip out of my hands. I’ve held NUGT too long before (but that wasn’t in a bull). I’ve got a limit sale in for AUMN as well today, didn’t like the recent price action and with earnings too much risk, again I’m up way to much to lose it. Also going to sell last but of options.

    But holding all other non-leveraged miners.

  6. Cason
    Cason says:

    So, the market is taking a hammer to my account this morning but for perspective, BTG and SAND both hit fresh 52-week highs yesterday! So, I’m holding through consolidation and backrest. Just freed up a little cash in case a new opportunity arises!

  8. Cason
    Cason says:

    Alex, if and when we get a new cycle in oil, let us know if you like WLL – they got eviscerated on this past drop. Could be a good rebound candidate? No need to answer today. Thanks for everything! 🙂

  9. Ken
    Ken says:

    VGZ I own it and Don’t like the hit this morning but…..that is why I have a basket of 13 jrs. most will become LT holdings until I see the top emerging in the metal markets, (months away imo) these PM jrs. stock purchases are Much lower than my PM “core” holdings which are in SLV and GDX Call Leaps. Just the way I am playing this Bull Market in Metals for what it is worth.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      I have a few seniors but yeah, 12 different companies all together. I still need to figure out my core strategy, thanks for giving me something to think about.

  11. Cason
    Cason says:

    Nice pop in WPX at 1031 this morning. Need oil and energy to come along. Right now, pretty much only have miners and hate the sector risk I have, crave a bit more diversity.

  12. ray
    ray says:

    anybody followed my suggestion of July 22nd ?
    now around 2.52 !!

    this is what i wrote in the blog on july 22nd

    ray chartfreak1 • 12 days ago
    silvercrest metals Canadian mine ( SIL ) is breaking out as well
    was 0.14 in februari and now 1.5

  13. kathleenchow
    kathleenchow says:

    I’m a bit confused and wondering if anyone can shed some light re: what is the difference between a “bought deal financing” and a “private placement”? I’ve done some research and noticed that SAND climbed out of the hole rather quickly despite a bought deal financing, whereas GPL has not yet. At the same time, NAK has done 2 private placements and kept climbing without much of a hitch. Now I’m holding VGZ with an announced bought deal financing. Help…

  14. kathleenchow
    kathleenchow says:

    One other thing, I see that TGD hasn’t gotten into any of these bought deal or private placements, right? It has only repaid a secured debt to Sprott and Goldcorp. I am no finance major! Thanks in advance:)

    • R Byram
      R Byram says:

      K – just looking at the last statement from March they have 49mil in current assets and 46mil in current liabilities – so about a 1:1 ratio. A healthy current ratio should be 2 or 3 times current assets to current liabilities. On that statement is also shows 9.6 mill cash and 27 million in payables. So they are in need of cash. I don’t know if this has been cured since then, but if not……………………..

  15. R Byram
    R Byram says:

    Does anyone understand the oil futures market? I am on the DailyFX site and there was increased volume at 10:30 and the price has been moving up. Does that volume have any kind of predictive value?

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      US govt oil ineventory report, bro. EIA on Wed, 1030 Eastern. Every week. Always!! Unless Mon is a govt holiday then it’s Thurs either 1030 or 1100 depending on Nat gas data release.

  16. JT
    JT says:

    Bought LGCY with a 10% stop. Taking a chance on an Oil DCL. I like how it’s held up the last 8 days while Oil drops 10%. MEMP also looks like a fun ride.

    VGZ stings. Sold NAK two days ago, rebought half yesterday, how fun.

    That’s all this is, mostly fun. Some of y’all letting this get to you are playing with oversized positions. Good luck to all.

  18. JT
    JT says:

    EXK looks very attractive today. After 6 days in a row up I expected a little drop into earnings. That’s been bought hard and it’s showing a nice tail now. Appears they are profitable now too. Too bad I’m already fully loaded.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Anyone without a full position in EXK hopefully bought this morning. I’m already full up! BTD!!

  20. Michael K
    Michael K says:

    Alex, et al, what’s up with the vol. on oil? Your above Stockcharts chart shows capitulation vol. on the 1st & 2nd, but today’s chart only shows capitulation vol. on the 1st and normal vol. on the 2nd. USO shows slightly elevated vol. on the 1st and normal vol. on the 2nd. Using TOS (Think or Swim) the /cl (light sweet crude) contract shows normal vol. on BOTH the 1st & 2nd. Any idea what’s happening here or how to trade when the data is so screwy?

    • Michael K
      Michael K says:

      This looks interesting. I like the increasing vol. in June with increasing price, and decreasing vol. more recently with decreasing price. It appears to have missed earnings, yesterday, and also in May but has held up. The wkly gap shown hasn’t closed by $.05. The candle is good, holding the 100 dma is good. A starter position here with a stop under the candle followed by scaling in over resistance steps seems like a plan. Thomas, what else do see here or know about the company?

    • Tammie
      Tammie says:

      Just took a look….came in under expectations, down after hours a tad – hopefully won’t be too bad of a fall…..their report is very long so hard to read through all that….:) 🙂

  26. R Byram
    R Byram says:

    it looks like VGZ has strong support right at the $1.65 on the Canadian stock so I took a position

  27. Steven
    Steven says:

    Alex look at MJNA today lmao, this stuff only happens to me, I’m barely in it. Going to hold forever just wish I had more.

  29. Cason
    Cason says:

    Gold and silver getting hammered early in Asian trading overnight. 🙁 too early for half-cycle low this week?

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