Strong Bulls
We’ve been seeing some strong Bulls running in 2016, and I dont think that the show is over yet. That is great news, lets take a look in our weekend review…
SPX – We’ve seen a break out to new all time highs and a sideways consolidation for weeks.
SPX WKLY – Possible back test or it may just break out higher. If it just keeps going sideways and dips down into a dcl, the back test could occur then too. We’ll watch it as it plays out.
THE USD took a dive Friday, dropping below some important moving averages.
This is what I had been looking at as resistance last week.
And projecting for the bigger picture from this Mid June chart. A drop at that magenta line or a Possible pop would lead to the blue line. We just hit the blue line & dropped.
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I usually go to OIL here, but lets look at the CRB. The CRB is made up of many things, but OIL & Energy are big components, so…
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CRB– Nice reversal right off of the 200sma. In Bull markets , many technical analysis patterns and support / resistant act very well. The CRB is due for a dcl, but more likely an ICL. SO THE CRB Looks very Bullish. we saw CLF, X, AKS, etc acting very well this week.
CRB WKLY– Inverse H&S on the giant side 🙂
WTIC – SO if the CRB is bottoming, OIL could too, or at least very soon. Lets take a look. Below was my Thursday chart possibly finding support at the 200sma.
FRIDAY – OIL Stopped and put in a reversal right at the 200sma. Read the chart.
WTIC – A Right Translated Intermediate Cycle so far, this could be OILS ICL coming in. OIL cycles run very long, and the first one is proof of that, so now we have our eyes on Oil / Energy stocks and many are starting to show bullish signs too. 
Could OIL just bounce and then double bottom / shake out? Yes because it is early in the daily cycle ( Day 29, thats NOT too early so it could bottom right here, but we’ve seen 50 day daily cycles in Oil) and I dont see any divergences yet. SO this may be THE low forming, or a bounce and a low. We are Close – I.M.H.O. The CRB hints at that.
Pointed out day 5 on Thursday…
NATTY BIG PIC – Also a possible ICL. You see why I chose the theme pic? lots of Strong Bulls showing up at the party.
GOLD , SILVER, and MINERS
Speaking of Strong Bulls showing up, Gold has been one. I used this chart Thursday to point out that the lows were in and this ‘Pause’ or ‘stall’ in the upside means nothing bad. We’ve seen it before. It should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
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GOLD – How perfect was that? Bull markets act correctly.
GOLD WKLY – It tagged the weekly 10MA. Again, perfect. feels too perfect, but I’ll take it.
THE COT – It dropped further as Gold sold off into the fed Mtg
SILVER – I pointed out the bullish break out from this pattern, and the stall Thursday means nothing as long as those lows hold.
SILVER Friday
GDX – Thursdays chart, and this looked very nice.
GDX is only on DAY 4, I think we’ll see a break out and possibly a back test and then a continuation higher. From there I’ll take it step by step as usual.
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So far 2016 has been the appearance of many Strong Bulls. We’ve made money in Miners, Steel and Aluminum and other commodity stocks, Oil and Energy trades and guess what? It looks like we are in for a repeat performance. Maybe we learned a few things in the first 4-6 months of 2016, but I have to warn you while that coming out of these lows has lead to huge gains in some areas, the gains %-Wise tend to shrink in the next Intermediate Cycle, unless you are a good stock picker. Even then, the dreaded “public offering’ is attractive to a small company looking to raise fast cash.
Look at it this way, Something that ran from $2 to $17 like ‘AG’ First Majestic was great ( AG, CDE, X, etc had huge % runs) But for AG to now run from $17 to $32 would only be a double. We cant expect it to move up another 800% from here in a few months, but are there others out there that a good stock picker might find with 100’s of % gains. I believe so. I’ll be discussing set ups in future reports, and you can look back in some of the last 2 weeks reports too, for some set ups in Miners.
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~ALEX
SIDENOTE:
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In the Mondays night / Tuesday Morning report I will cover MKTS and I want to touch a little bit on Core positions .
CORE – I have received a few emails about “Core” holdings over the past few weeks. People may hear me say that in my core position, Blah Blah Blah . I’ve also heard, “What do you own as Core holdings? I think I should own those as my core too”. I want to address it in a report, because it really is a common question, and understandably so. People are now seeing the reality if the type of run that these Miners can have in a bull market and want to just ride some of them , ignoring the wiggles. I think that it is advantageous to hold a core, but there is more to it than just copying what I own as my core. I will show that in the next report. Another point is that you have to ignore the wiggles. Would GPL and GSS be good in a Core? Sure, I think so. Where might they be 4 yrs from now? This past 2 weeks has been disappointing in those stocks and no one want to hold them anymore. Well GPL is up 400% from the lows right now and was up much more than that 2 months ago. GSS is up 500% right now from the lows, and was up 700%. Nobody wants to own them now, because they are stalling. Core is LONG TERM. You cannot let the wiggles change your view unless they are more than just wiggles. I will discuss MY ‘Core’ holding idea briefly in the next report, and I will discuss your core. 
Crk reverse split + earnings. +16% on Friday. Monday should be a barn burner one way or the other. See you on the other side
Hey Bounce,
I was watching many Energy stocks friday and that was one that I liked the set up so far ( I did not know about the split, but just read about it 1:5 , thanks ).
I liked the base and the higher low with divergence.
They are releasing the conference call at 10 a.m. Central time Monday instead of Wednesday as previously scheduled. You are right…Barn burner 1 way or the other.
I also liked that set up of higher low in CIE and a few others ( NOT RECOMMENDING for others here yet). CIE earnings are out this week also – Aug 2 I believe.
WPX had a nice reversal and hasnt dropped much during the Oil sell off.
I need about 12 more eyes to watch everything that I want to keep y eyes on : ) Thanks for the input on what you’re watching , it’s another set of eyes.
OAS used to be $1 or some more per share the WPX. WPX is now $2.50 MORE than OAS b/c WPX held up the past three weeks while OAS got stomped.
One of my favorite techniques (easy to do with stockcharts) is to plot an energy stock against oil – WPX:$WTIC or OAS:$WTIC. Try BAS:$WTIC and be prepared to barf!! It shows the relative performance of an energy stocks against the price movements of oil. Same can be done with miners and $GOLD. As well as with silver and gold.
what?? are my eyes seeing right CRK up 1782% pre market based on 3 tiny trades? Nasdaq must be playing games.
And for the GPL hanger oner’s she’s up to $1.50 pre market
Looks to me like CRK is down. Closed 0.81 Fri and 1:5 split should have it at 4.10 but it is showing just 3.10 now in pre-market. Am I reading this right?
could be the new $3.10 price divided by 5 = .62 – that would not be pretty!
Thanks for the report. I look forward to hearing your thoughts on “core” holdings.
Thx Nancy – I hope that it’ll be a little helpful, but as a spoiler alert, it may disappoint some.
For example, I’m not going to be saying… ” I own this, you should too”. and here is why…
I did that back in December – FEB reports when I pointed out stocks like RIC and said they bottomed in 2013. At THAT point I said, “Why not put this in your core, the lows are in and not likely to be broken”.
But for me to say today ” I own RIC as core and you should too! I bought it at $1 , you should own it as your core too , and oh, by the way, it’s $11 as of today” That doesn’t make sense to me.
Core is for everyone, but MY CORE shouldn’t be everyones core at this point. More in the next report
At this point, my “core consists of mostly gold/metal stocks that I bought when I first started with you in Feb. and seem to be stronger companies. I sometimes I am sorry I took so much profit on that first run and only kept several hundred shares of each, but that gave me $ make new plays on others, so I needed to. Now they are way up, and the new batch is getting up where some may make it into the core when I sell some partial positions after the next run up. Is your target still about $1400 for gold?
THAT first sentence is great Nancy! I was recommending “Core” positions in Jan & Feb , and some are up 300%, 700% etc. Thats great!
And I too sold some too early too. I’ve been able to trade them well, but MUX for instance, would have been a better BUY & Hold. It’s good to look back and learn, but that was a rare circumstance that we were in ( coming out of multi yr bear mkt lows ).
Is my Target still $1400? It is more than that. 🙂
Alex, too early for any targets for miners and gold? At least maybe for the major ETFs? I see the breakout and back test. One potential outcome I have read some about would be gold maybe breaking above 1400 which could run quickly to the MAJOR resistance in the 1500-1550 area – you’ve mentioned that multiple times before. At that point we would probably get a real correction versus just a couple of down days (maybe?). Just a thought – definitely get a bit ahead, but if you see any realistic near-term targets that would help plan with 1) when to reduce leverage 2) when to maybe stop adding miners, for example.
I Reduce leverage in the 2nd daily cycle, I use my eyes to tell me when because each run up in a 2nd daily cycle will be different from the last one, but if you want a guess? Days 10 -15 could see a peak..
Problem is that we could pull back into day 15 in a 1/2 cycle low , and then top out on day 20- 23 or so , so yes, too early for me to guide you on that path at day 5 for Miners.
My best advice : If one has leverage here, they need a plan for their exit with contentment and not trying to get the exact top..
10-15 is plenty of guide – just seeing if you had some ideas already floating up there – sometimes the targets kind of become obvious, other times, less so. I’d be happy enough to reduce risk before a potential 1/2 cycle low and then re-engage if the opportunity presents itself!
Bill, any trade ideas for Monday? Non-miners, I’m pretty well maxed out there but may consider a quick add if we open lower for any reason. ERX, UWTI, Nat gas?
Dont tell anyone, but I bought CIE near $1.40 Friday just because it had a double bottom, higher low, MACD divergence, I was discussing OIL with KEN, etc etc etc : )
There are many like that, but if OIL does sell off a bit more, they could roll over, and many have a hard time with that.
HAPPY MONDAY EVERYONE
GOLD WAS DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT, I WONT BE AROUND TILL MAYBE 9 A.M. EASTERN… LETS SEE SOME GREEN!!
Pre-market shows miners are bullish mood … TGD up 6%, BAA up 13%, LODE up 7%, THM up 5%, GPL up 4%
Added to TGD – HUGE VOLUME likely by the end of the day
Look at TGD on a 3 month chart using the 20sma
Yea!!!!!! I kind of bet the farm on TGD. And have been waiting for weeks it seems 🙂
I am pretty heavily into it too. I wasnt going to add any more ( Earning come out Aug 12th by the way) , but the volume in the first 10 minutes was very big. The chart is very good.
just added at this pullback to 0.57.. now lets see it fly… giddy-up TGD!
So, hopefully this time next week you have TWO farms!!
I’ve missed a couple of the giraffes – but I’m pretty heavy into TGD. Let’s GO!!!
Canadian markets closed today for civic holidays across the country. Happy B.C. Day, Alex. 🙂
Alex, Besides TGD …don’t want to chase…Anything else that might want to popped soon on your radar this morning?
thx
Keep your eyes on BAA above $0.40
will do.thx
MGH getting a shift on now too?.. recovered the 6% drop at friday close
Lode looks kind of good here too.
TOPS!! – I saw it up 50%, now up 135%
SINO, EGLE, DRYS
Alex,
Do you see KGC playing catch up to NGD?
Sorry Curtis – but I dont think that I understand the question? I see a ton of similar consolidations recently, but they act differently progressing ahead, and that can be based on resistance some from the past trading.
see 6 month charts of KGC, EXK, HMY, IAG, NGD.
So KGC can go higher like NGD has, or HMY, or IAG, but they all went higher in a different manner.
Hope that helps.
Thx Alex,
I meant that NGD broke to new highs…do you see KGC doing the same this daily cycle? Just not sure if it’s behaving correctly,,,it did fall below the 50 sma but has since closed above.
They released earnings last wed and seem to be ok after that, but it’s hard to know for sure how it will act going forward. The set up is average so far
I am similarly in KGC, hoping that I was ahead of the breakout and instead we just didn’t get one! So, I’m with you here, Curtis. Let me know if you see something better – I have enough exposure to these very junior companies so not really looking to take on risk there, maybe should just chase after a higher performer?
KGC just consolidating it appears.
just bring up a 30 min chart with a 65 & 300 eMA
I’ve been pushing NAK for a few weeks , and I kept hearing how dangerous it is.
Climbing that wall of worry : )
The A-B=C-D is completing, so selling partial may be smart and re-enter if I get a drop with a proper set up
thanx for letting us know : ) Always nice to have these in and out points
Hi Ray,
see above chart for something else to possibly watch for.
Super info again Alex. I’m out with great 1 day gain. Many thanks.
Nice scalp : )
Just so everyone knows, it COULD just bull flag.
If you look at AUMN and it ran June 1 to July 1 – and then just bull flagged.
With AUMN I saw a run from June 1 to Mid June, then a slight pull back, then a 2nd leg up for a possible A-B=C-D, then it just bull flagged and went higher, but still a good trade %-Wise.
So with NAK – it may just pause or flag or power higher.
The base is HUGE on NAK, so thats why I just sold Partial. I got heavy near $0.40 -$0.45…just cashing in at a reasonably good gain and letting some ride : )
This is what I am referring to with AUMN
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Refresh
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Saw this note when I returned…I’m of NAK out with a nice quick profit so thanks!
GSS is looking attractive again after this spanking.
getting momentum divergences now on 1H/2H charts
urre… i *think that’s starting 3 today… u?
you got a chart for that.. show me wot u mean?
i havent looked at what URRE has been doin for a while
think HPJ might be bustin a move agin… unless its just up to B wave of the correction
u mean like that???
https://www.tradingview.com/x/AB2DEbIU/
lol thats sweet.. bring it on
lol… 2funny
show me your URRE chart.. if ya got one to hand
got nothin for that dog… sorry .. stopped following it… see if 1.39 holds maybe something will light a fire under it’s a$$… 😉
soz M.. what were you on about before then?? ,,, when you said ”’urre… i *think that’s starting 3 today… u?”’
was that ‘urre’ just like grunting sound,, or summat? 🙂
..omg i need a lobotomy… sorry.. i meant hpj.. idk why i typed that?? crazy..
oh wow.. i know.. becuz i had just recvd this!! and it was on my mind…..
URANIUM RSCS INC (URRE): Trade volume exceeds average by at least 20%
Vanguard
ahhh ok.. that explains it.
when you booking in for surgery?
Can you make that little Gif of you smoking 1 bowl too many – LOL : – )
Really chartfreak?
Lol
Really Maria-juana
🙂
seriously bratfreak?
Maria without her make-up
F5!!!!!!
Uh Oh, Insert an ‘open can or worms’ here : )
lol ….she can add it to her gif library
yeah… Mr. Innocent .. u r …
.. someone has a hidden talent…
ha ha ha ha .. nice blunt
i really have stripped away your make-up on this one ..
…and a few more hours spliffing
F5
Sorry I didn’t post this earlier. Osisko received a US listing recently and has now decisively headed north, Worth putting on the radar for a pullback
what is the US listing, sorry I see that refreshing is giving us the pic you posted
Ticker OR up 8% today
UEC breaking out of a long base today
Alex are you keeping an eye on REN in the oil and gas world. This was a left-for-dead zombie that announced game changing drill-bit results from a couple of monster wells and caused the pop in July.
I didnt read of that news. They did a 1:5 split in June too, I used to trade it under $1.
Real nice % – Gain recently… maybe a buy at a 38% or 50% retrace
If Alamos Gold (AGI) can close above its 20 day ma ($9.38), it could continue the run it has been on over the last several months. The recent pullback looks similar to the last week in May, when it dipped below the 20 day. Currently trading at $9.26
OIl futures just dropped below $40 ….,
any thoughts on where support would be??
oh gratifyingly, glorious giraffe … :o)
Hey Alex, thoughts on FCX? Been holding a while and down 13%
It’s not even down 13% from the recent highs, is it?
Anyway, it looks good longer-term. Great run., nice long cons9olidation, I like it.
You’re right, Still recovering from the past.. scottrade averages my positions history. It’s a small position, I’ll add a bit and hold longer term. Thanks!
Oh, LOOOONG term position. Yeah, it looks good long term.
Like X , $6 to $27.
Chartfreak–sage advice on AUMN, por favor? I’m kinda waffling at the moment. While it’s not showing any “horrible” weakness, there have been a few solid candles in a row, decreasing volume. Still above the 10, overbought weekly but not daily. Bought at 0.83, so up a decent amount. Daily PSAR is bearish while chart is flat last few days. Will it flip bullish and ride higher? Or will it hit my sell target of $1.20? Thoughts?
Glad you asked, I have been searching and I thought that I remembered earnings come out tomorrow, but I cant find it anywhere. I’ve looked around alot. The last release was about 3 months ago , so they are due.
Last time they released earnings, it dropped quite a bit and then ran higher. That doesn’t mean that will happen this time, it may surprise to the upside, it may crash on bad news, so
Good time to make you decision based on that potential risk / reward.
I was just looking for earnings myself, from what can find i think its the 4th.
I cant find anything, cant remember where I thought I read about it.
Fidelity indicates an earnings announcement on Aug. 4th, after the close, but states in parenthesis that this is unconfirmed, whatever that means.
that seems to be a good enough consensus, thanks everyone – Aug 4th must be it : )
If it’s Aug 4 why is nothing mentioned on their website?
The last one was 3 months ago, and they are quarterly, so it is due.
Why isn’t it on their website? Maybe we might want to call them and find out if they are hiding it for a reason.
Merrill lists nothing. But I have Aug 4 on my list too, so I must have seen it somewhere. I looked on their website and no mention of earnings there.
Nasdaq earnings calendar says Aug 4th
Thank You Conrad
Sentient Global Resources owns 39% of AUMN? Hmm. Maybe I’ll sell enough to get back the original cost, then let the rest ride. I’ve still got stops so worst case scenario I get stopped out on just the profits = still got profits. If it runs I can jump back in. Usually will go up for two or three days at least, right?
Yes, and if the earnings surprise to the upside, it can run more than that with small pullbacks along the way .
Seems earnings is Aug 4th. Maybe it’ll squeeze a bit more upside out of it?
GDX/J now at highs of the day!
Could this be near capitulation in the oil space? I remember miners carving out an ICL where miners just had epic moves up and down each day until exhaustion then it took off upside. USO is on a mind-bending 6-day B.B. crash – I don’t know how much longer that can hold up. I’m not advising picking up pennies in front of the steam roller but this level of negativity won’t last very long. Can’t.
Alex or anyone,
Do you have an opinion on NEM – Newmont Mining?
I’ve held it since October and am thinking it may be time to sell. It has “only” 65% more to reach it’s all-time high – which I’d think should take quite awhile. Don’t want to sound greedy, there just seem to be many better options in this new bull market.
So You’re saying you want to trade your Mercedes in for a Roll-Royce : )
Nem is a nice looking chart, climbing up at around a 45 degree angle for months. Reliable well known mining company, so it will likely reach former highs . It’s not a bad chart at all. Up 100%.
Yes, there could be more bang for your buck in smaller juniors, also might be more risk. A 4 yr weekly of CDE looks like it’ll double over time, VGZ, Mux, Etc could do the same. If we experience a pullback in Sept / OCT going into the ICL, I cant tell you which one will pull back the most, But that is when I may rearrange my portfolio.
Sell partials at the top of this Intermediate Cycle ( easier said than done), and wait for the ICL to buy into something again.
Thanks, Alex!
Exactly my plan! Now, to identify all of that exactly correct…hmm….
We’ll all be watching for you to shine a light on those points! No pressure….LOL!
No Bill today
Sad, isn’t it? And I’ve only seen one .gif all day!
Someone asked me about EMXX when it was in that consolidation. Great move recently
nice day for tgd – up 15% and it’s not even at the giraffe’s adams apple yet
BTG new 52-week high today SAND up 3% is outsized gain today for medium/large cap and gold just above the flat line.
I couldn’t help but nibbling on energy this afternoon. Anyone else? And NO, I don’t recommend it. 1/2 position in WPX. It’s down 10%, just such a great sale on what has been a very strong run. Grabbed a few, and I mean a few calls for both USO and OAS into Aug monthly expire. They’re essentially free right now, just cost the commission. 😛 No, seriously, they’re pennies so the overall risk is way less than say, TGD made just today. 🙂
Nice Cason.
I am still on the sidelines but Those Aug. calls could be lotto picks, I hope you bght. In the money though. 🙂
I only bought 1/2 of what I would have otherwise since oil got a hammer to the face today. I planned on sprinkling of around some, basket-style. It’s crazy, USO and many oil companies are so low priced now that it limits your options options! 😛
If you buy enough TGD it’s kind ridiculous how much each 5 cents rise in price nets you!
on one hand, i have been holding TGD since it was .27 and I want to pull the trigger, other I cant help but think $2.5 is not that crazy to target. Thats the pull greed vs prudence. Chop or let it go….also NAK good today!
Looking at the longer chart, once it clears past 64 cents, not much resistance to $1.17 — I’m holding as I think it’s building a base
Thats the crazy part about buying a core at the lows too.
Take the number of shares you have and imagine that its become a $5.00 stock and trades up $040 in a day : )
The hard part is ( as Mike Murphy is discussing below) it also gets to a point where your up 30 cents one day and down 20 cents the next and your gains and losses are tough to watch. Then when it runs higher, its best to try not to get too giddy – lol
Be right. Sit tight.
Livermore
That is what works best in a Bull Market
Good one.
Glad I’m not the only one that fantasizes and figures the math for a larger move down the road…
Well, It’s actually not really fantasizing, it really does happen if your patient and in a good mining company during the bull phase.
I’ve done it, its a learning experience. I sell partials on the way up, and try to ride my initial purchases, and they can be sizeable if you bought them 3 to 6 months ago. Like you said , Each 5 or 10 cents higher makes a bigger difference when you buy low and they climb there way up.
i fantasize everyday too …
oh wait.. ur talkn about the markets …;)
Saucy is as saucy does. 🙂
well we got the CRK post earnings barnburner – 30% crunch in one day
jeepers… i get a low of the day at 0.83, back up to 2.88!
thats some vomit-inducing rollercoaster
don’t forget the 5:1 split = $0.57 if I am reading this right
d’ohhh.. forgot bout that bit
Still is worth a damn vomit! Fair exchange was about $4.11 ! Damn. I better go read the earnings.
you still in it then?
said you were an adrenaline junkie
Yes, sadly. Both accounts. One way worse than the other.
Sorry to hear. I’ve really dialed back my exposure in energy and tightened my trading rules for less risk. The whole sector is an exploding turd right now.
Lol should find ICL soon and Nat gas appears to have already, so either start afresh when that happens or just trade the actual commodities so you don’t have (as many) surprises? You still have OPEC and inv reports so it is NOT risk-free but you can discount some of that in the charts.
gotta run – have a good one all
Hey all – heads up to anyone holding BCEI….made announcement after hours….electing to not make an interest payment on a senior unsecured note….EPS -.40 instead of est. -.27….suspending some asset sale processes….it’s down .25 in after hours trading….I don’t have it but it’s been on my watch list so I’m trolling through all the company announcements for a number of stocks and ran across this –
Youch! I stopped out of a crap trade in BCEI a couple of months ago and in true emotional fashion dropped it from my watchlist. Charts are fun but you really have to watch the energy space right now, the bankruptcies in the juniors are just starting. Folks might want to stick to ETFs for a bit!
Yeah…no telling which companies might go belly up and which ones might beat earnings and soar ahead once the low is in….I had BCEI a while back but got rid of it, then something I saw made me think it was heading into trouble so I stayed out – glad I did….