What might we expect on Monday, based on Fridays charts?

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SPX  July 6th from my last report-  The SPX looked good and a break would be sweet  I thought that the MACD and other things looked to be making a bullish move.

 

SPX – Fridays break higher  was Bullish as shown, especially for day 8th

SPX WKLY – The all time highs are only roughly 3 points away

 

SPX WKLY – This chart is bullish

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THE USD –  Does it matter much right now?  Gold has moved higher with the dollar and without.

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WTIC –

Fridays report warned that OIL was not where I would have my money.  This chart showed that Oil failed in my opinion.  It is weak and needs to prove itself to be bullish, but it is not doing that. Actually, I have been saying for weeks that I am basically in “Precious Metals” , I think it is the best game in town. I am out of Energy.

WTIC WKLY – As of Friday, I maintain that opinion. If that daily chart failed, Oil could drop for weeks,  that is a warning. Oil needs to prove itself, so far I only see that the weakness is proving itself.

HERE IS SOMETHING ELSE THAT I AM SEEING

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If Oil fails, Energy is a big component of the CRB.  The CRB would likely look ugly too. And it did break down a bit…

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CRB-  This is breaking down, but could remain ok.

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SO I WANTED TO SAY –  Oil looks weak and Energy affects the CRB, but Metals do not.  Aluminum and steel remain bullishly set up.  I thought that needed to be mentioned since some may be looking at  ( or holding)   AA, CENX, X, STLD, CLF, etc.  Lets look at a chart of STEEL.

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STEEL– That is a bullish break out .

SUMMARY:  THAT means that I see Bullish signs in the general markets, OIL looks like it is failing, yet Steel and Aluminum and some of those stocks looks bullish too.

 

GOLD,SILVER, & MINERS

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To begin with, weeks ago other writers were warning that the GOLD C.O.T. was high and Golds crash or pullback was imminent.  They had been saying that for weeks and warned against adding to Precious metals positions.  I pointed out reasons that that C.O.T. viewpoint was not valid, and that an ICL was in place and confirmed.  Gold would move higher, possibly to $1400+ to $1500. 

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C.O.T.- I drew this C.O.T. chart showing that under my research from 2009,  the C.O.T. could just continue to grow in SHORT positions while Gold continued higher, leaving people behind.  I added what the C.O.T. could look like weeks from then.  PLEASE NOTE:  I DREW IN THE LAST 3 LEGS TO SHOW WHAT I EXPECTED. Higher gold prices and higher shorts in the COT.

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C.O.T. CURRENTLY – As expected

Did GOLD continue higher over the last few weeks?

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GOLD WKLY – Gold has been higher for 6 weeks straight. I have been Bullish Gold & Miners since the end of May at the lows.  Golds ICL was confirmed in the 1st week of June.

We could see a straight line run to $1421-$1500, or a dip to ‘test’ the break out, as shown, is also normal. Gold remains Bullish either way.

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I am being asked if I think this is the 1st daily cycle or second.  With both Gold & Miners I have said a few times my thoughts. This screen capture was from Fridays report…

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GOLD FRIDAY – We had a shake out Friday apparently. I was still working and away from the computer. Gold dropped $30and recovered immediately, closing green. Look at Miners in the HUI chart below too,  just moving higher.

So Thursday when I went away, we saw GOLD & MINERS drop, as shown in this chart. I said that it hadn’t even dropped below the 10sma and ribbon shown. I wasn’t worried, because using cycles, we were only on day 9.

GOLD FRIDAY–  COMPLETE RECOVERY OFF OF THAT 10SMA AND RIBBON 🙂  Gold remains Bullish.

SILVER  DID THE SAME THING

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GDX

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GDX – The drop may have set the trend line.  Again, I see us in the 2nd daily cycle, as explained on this chart. I see a trend line break and break of the 10sma on June 21, 22.

GDX WKLY –  This has been a strong run, and we are overbought on a weekly.  These can remain overbought and this could continue higher in this daily cycle.  We are at resistance. A strong break above $31 is Bullish.

With various Miners – I mentioned that Thursdays selling in Miners seemed rough, but  I also tried to give it perspective.  I pointed out that we saw prices on Thursday that were still higher than they were 2 days earlier.  So if this was only Day 7, I expect higher prices still. Lets review those thoughts.

GG –  In many stocks like GG, I thought that we could drop further, but possibly just a gap fill. I posted this chart.

GG FRIDAY – Bingo

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EXK – Did this just back test the recent break out?  Did you buy it?

EXK WKLY – This is a valid break out after 6 weeks higher.  Only a week ago many were asking me why EXK was such a lagger, but this chart shows a bullish run to a break out.

 

AUMN Thursday – I mentioned that AUMN dropped for 3 days, but the selling was drying up. I thought it might drop to the 10sma, and I would add on Monday.

AUMN– I may not get to add down there, unless we get a bull flag, but so far  this was a fast reversal Friday.  AUMN closed up 10%.

TRX –    June 20  TRX was recommended with this base at $0.53 

TRX –  June 29 was the break out and final low risk but point.

TRX –  July 6 was the giraffe neck, up over 100%.

 

TRX – Thursday  TRX sold off and Friday recovered again, up 15%, so these sell offs Thursday were possible shake outs or 1/2 cycle dips. Time will tell.

 

TRX WKLY –  I’m not saying to buy it here, it is extended too much to be considered a low risk first buy entry. I am showing this to say that if you still own it, it is at resistance, but may continue higher.  I sold some and still own a good portion. Strong resistance could be at $1.60 ish.

XRA – This was mentioned down near $0.85 cents above the 50sma. After the huge run , it started Bull flagging.  Thursdays sell off in Miners saw it lose 6%, but was still in the flag, so I pointed that out.  I am still holding from lower.  I’M NOT saying to buy it here, unless you are an experienced trader wanting to scalp a quick %-point on a possible break out. I/m saying that ‘hold’ may work out well if the flag breaks higher.

 

XRA FRIDAY – Strong reversal off of the 10sma.

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So based on what we saw Friday, Thursdays sell off was just a day 9 sell off . As mentioned, Gold may have dropped into a 1/2 cycle low.  I came home after being away all day Friday and saw many Miners reversing off of the 10sma.  Again, like I have mentioned in prior reports,  Laggers can be sought out and possibly grabbed as the next nice runners in Miners.  Experienced traders may scalp gains from bull flag and other bullish set ups.  I will post 2 bullish charts at the end of this report.   After watching Mondays action, we may see more set ups.

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The SPX, DJIA, NASDAQ are bullishly aligned and commodities may run with them.  Steel and Aluminum look like nice set ups.  OIL? That is not showing me bullish desires yet, I am waiting for signs of strength but I see weakness.  I never try to tell the market what it should do- we must listen to what the markets are telling us.

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I hope all had a good weekend, and so far I kind of like the way this week is set up for the General Markets, Metals, and Precious metals.  And yes,  the XBI crossed the 50sma 3 days ago and the 10sma is about to cross above the 50sma.  Biotech looks good too.That is your weekend report.

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I hope you all had a great weekend!

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~ALEX

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GSS has nice potential from here in my opinion. Fridays reversal showed nice buying above the 10sma and this set up is bullish. What about the weekly?

GSS WKLY – Longer term BULLISH when we see how other longer basing charts in Miners played out.

 

LODE, THM, and NAK are also looking bullish.