July 7 – Pilot To Copilot, We’ve Got This

/88 Comments/in /by

 

The general markets ( And even $BKX) showed improvement after opening lower Wednesday. The release of Fed Minutes today was a non-event for the most part.

 

SPX 7-6

 

The SPX looks like it actually wants to break out higher again. I would wait for confirmation, unless you are experienced trader and wish to jump the gun a bit long.

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I called this report  ‘Pilot To Copilot’ because I have an opportunity to work as a volunteer on a project and will be away Thursday and Friday.  I will still have this Thursday morning report to guide you, and possibly a Friday morning release if I come home Thursday night and see anything of interest.   During the day, I will not be in the comment area or able to answer emails.   You have all learned a lot about navigating your own positions,  the controls are being handed to you in the real time markets of Thursday and Friday.   This report and prior reports are your guide.  🙂

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WTIC –  OIL DID NOT break below what may be the DCL. It put in a nice reversal and may regain the 50sma soon.  That would be bullish.   That dcl at $45.83 is valid if not brokenis still valid.  There is more…

WTIC 7-6

 

XLE –  Is the XLE holding up this well because smart traders know that Oil is going to go higher?  The XLE seems to be upholding the OIL Dcl possibility and held at the 50sma with a reversal.  This is becoming a more bullish looking set up.  Sometimes it takes time for the market to tell you what it is doing. 

XLE 7-6

 

OAS –  An Energy stock that we have traded a lot here. It held the 200sma and the possible Oil DCL. You can watch for further evidence of bullishness or bearishness in this sector.   

OAS 7-6

 

I liked the look of  CLF  ( A lot)  and VALE.  Others seem to be shaping up too, and since the CRB is represented by ENERGY, METALS, AGRICULTURE, ETC –  This adds to the healthier side of these sectors.

CRB 7-6

 

IPI  put in a nice reversal after shaking out traders under the 50sma intraday.  We had a reader buy it at $1.22.   IPI  looks good, and that may turn out to be a great trade in the future.   I am 3watching  IPI, POT, MOS, MON, AGU  out of the corner of my eye.

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GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS

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Gold – Read my comparison and draw a conclusion.  (Hint: Gold CAN go higher).

GOLD 7-6

 

SILVER –  Silver is at the weekly 200 MA.  All miners and Gold seemed to struggle here, and so SIlver is pausing.  IS THIS RUN DONE?  We may get a consolidation here like others did, and then another push higher  (Unless it just keeps working higher now).

Silver is taking out prior pivots like a champ.

SILVER 7-6

GOLD IS TAKING OUT PIVOTS LIKE A HEAVY WEIGHT CHAMP! Notice that GOLD paused at the 200 WMA too (green arrow).

GOLD 7-6 b

 

GDX –  Hey , why not notice that GDX also paused at the 200WMA while we are at it (Blue arrow).

GDX is also taking out all prior pivots. Seriously,  where is resistance after this pivot at $30.59? Roughly $35, then $40.  Read the chart.

GDX 7-6

 

So do you own Miners and now the pilot handed you the controls to fly this plane solo.  Look at GDX.  Look at the pull backs since January.  They were sideways and recovered fairly quickly.  Miners are also running individually,  and some like XRA and THM pushed higher into the close while they were not doing much mid day.  PZG formed another Giraffe head.  I am leaving a good amount of my positions on Thursday, and I will not be in front of the screen.  Pull backs can happen, but this has been a great bull run so far, so I am fairly comfortable with that. I expect higher prices later, even if we do pull back.  I will read the comments section when I get home later  ( Please be good ) 🙂

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Enjoy your Thursday, stay frosty….but the markets do look petty good all around. 

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You’ve got this.

YOU'VE GOT THIS

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~ALEX

 

GPL had an offering at $1.60 announced Wednesday,  and yes I hate that too.  Price will likely go there for a bit. That is not bad, since price was there 2 days ago. As I mentioned with SAND – it shows confidence that they were willing to buy shares at or near current prices.

Lets look at how it affected SAND,  it will likely be similar to GPL. Click the chart to enlarge it.

 

SAND dropped and climbed back in a week. Read the chart.

sand

88 replies
    • nancytheartist
      nancytheartist says:

      Off topic, but Robin Williams was SO funny…our world could have used more of him. Just Google Robin Williams on how Golf was invented and watch the clip. SO funny.

    • Maria
      Maria says:

      oh u hear that huh? truthfully…. im just a wannaBe in training… BUTT ;o) I’m always Up for a challenge …
      i honestly did start looking at it this chart this morning.. long about the time oil started dumping.. so I had to quick scoot and cut my uwti… phewww… that was something. In tradingview i can only see day, week, month so i can’t pop the hood and get a good look inside…. it looks like it’s almost finished correcting.. possibly even started ‘1’ Up…but i would wait cuz “2” dips can be Hard to stomach…..

  3. Moondoggie
    Moondoggie says:

    Whoa ! Alex, That is a lot of responsibility ! … I hope we can land this baby safely…especially the Panther !

  4. deshy
    deshy says:

    Forget the parachute Alex, I got the barf bag at the ready and legs between my knees just in case! Far more useful for me…especially with GPL). Enjoy the volunteering!

  6. Bill
    Bill says:

    GPL
    3:06 am Great Panther Silver to increase the size of its previously announced bought deal offering of units to $26 mln (GPL) :

    The Underwriters have agreed to purchase, on a bought deal basis, 16,250,000 Units at a price of $1.60 per Unit.
    As previously announced, each Unit consists of one common share in the capital of Great Panther (a “Share”) and one-half of one common share purchase warrant (
    Each Warrant entitles the holder thereof to purchase one Share at the exercise price of $2.25 per Share for a period of 18 months after the closing of the Offering.

    What does this mean to the opening price of GPL? $1.60 premarket

    • nancytheartist
      nancytheartist says:

      I have no idea! I sold half for a little profit post market last night at 1.67. I’ll just hold the rest.

          • SonOfGud
            SonOfGud says:

            wondering if anyone is considering switch back to energy again.
            appears to be bottoming out, and PMs may digest sideways or down for a while at this point

          • Bill
            Bill says:

            I was thinking the same. The stock market is just starting a cycle and maybe the even better choice. I bought some LABU last week, its doing well.

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            Bill, I sold mine this morning. Could still continue up but I made a winner out of a loser so I grabbed the cash while I still could. 4/4 on LABU this year. Woo!!

          • R Byram
            R Byram says:

            yes, carefully. I don’t want to get overenthusiastic and buy at the top of this bounce, but it looks like they are coming back down now.

        • nancytheartist
          nancytheartist says:

          Just got back…still holding AUMN ….red. I rarely use stops. Should, but don’t usually. Don’t trust market makers or high rollers. My losses in AUMN are small compared to my 4 biggest losers: ARP, SGY [still holding and glad I did not dump because it is greatly improved], SN, and FCX. Those are my worst losers. The next bad category are: IPI, OAS, TGB. I hold a few other lesser losers [ AUMN is in that group]. That being said, since starting with Alex in Feb….I hold 22 positions all green… some glowing green which are now core holdings for a longer ride. I also closed many positions and have captured very good returns.
          AUMN gave me a wild ride last time I held it….not worth the small return I got. I surprised myself jumping in again after I had resisted so long! Have no idea if I will regret it or not…LOL. How are you doing with GPL? I actually think it will recover. I kept some.

          • SonOfGud
            SonOfGud says:

            SGY looking real good.. wish i’d jumped in when it was showing reversal signs, but only noticed it late on.
            GPL.. im in the red, but will keep hold so long as it stays above 65eMA/$1.50.
            have only just got back in buying (after all my Brexit distractions,) but its nearly all green.. although my best (& biggest single) position is my DUST from yesterday

          • SonOfGud
            SonOfGud says:

            thinks its just a matter of sticking the different sma/ema on a chart and seeing what the price seems to react against…. so yes.. switch as appropriate.
            that GPL in my chart in this thread is definitely getting support recently at the 65ema..
            during March it was getting support on the 20sma

          • nancytheartist
            nancytheartist says:

            I am a little surprised that GPL dropped as much as it did today..I thought it would stay right about 1.60. I have a bunch of that in another account that I had from LONG ago at a much higher CB….I don’t want to look at the damage there!

      • deshy
        deshy says:

        I agree. Reading the latest quarterly report and the absence of debt and AISC of $13–I suspect they raised funds to make an acquisition. They seem to be focused on operational efficiency so I suspect they’ll be eying something accretive. The question is who? JMO

        • R Byram
          R Byram says:

          beauty shake out – 4.4 million shares traded hands so far – stocks moving from the weak hands to the strong hands. And the rick get richer.

          • Carlnetscouts
            Carlnetscouts says:

            Bought some more this morning. I believe it’s a bull market. Redistributing some. Selling a bit of some that have gone way up in price and picking up some lower priced opportunities.

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      I was really expecting GPL to have a double digit day, didn’t think it would be a down day. Another reason to buy ETFs

    • R Byram
      R Byram says:

      The chart for GPL showed us that something was going on yesterday. I saw on the 10 minute and didn’t want to believe. These high flyers can make a lot more than an etf. For me the lesson is to keep the number of stocks I am playing down to a minimum and watch them very closely. The rewards are out-sized, but the risk is there too.

    • ray
      ray says:

      Might take awhile before moving up if this will happen – the boss will tell us more once he’s back

        • Bill
          Bill says:

          Geurt, I am still holding my mining stocks. I am starting to see tails on many of them, that indicate that the lows at least for today are in.

          • Bill
            Bill says:

            Yes! I really expected GPL to take off like the rest, I guess too many insiders knew the real score.

          • Carlnetscouts
            Carlnetscouts says:

            Some are coming back nicely. Look at NG. I think these quick shakeouts will become pretty standard.

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            Knowing that I was buying at an extended point, I only bought a 1/2 position in everything. If we get a pullback here, I start filling out my positions. We had quite a rip, wish I had had some NUGT. If we can find the next low, I’m going to go really heavy.

    • SonOfGud
      SonOfGud says:

      appearing that GPL has found support at the daily 65eMA (thicker brown line).
      (F5!!)

  7. Crystal
    Crystal says:

    I bought CWEI on the 5th for $26 with a tight stop and was surprised that it held….. Have a great day enriching your life on another level!

  9. Cason
    Cason says:

    You mean we are left with Maria and her .gif machine at the helm? Oh Lord. Maybe Bill will have some answers for us? 😛

  10. R Byram
    R Byram says:

    Here is one of the leading stars in oil TET.TO. I mentioned it here before and know a little about the rock star owners. It spiked 18% yesterday.

  11. R Byram
    R Byram says:

    Oil just under-cut its recent lows from June 16 and June 27. Just guessing here but Alex may call this a bearish development.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Crazy nasty bearish. So here is what I meant to state earlier this week. Here is the issue – we’ve had draws in the EIA report for 7 weeks in a row. BUT it has taken LARGER draws to get the same or WORSE reaction. That’s right, a regular draw wasn’t good enough. It was like the stock market on QE – it took larger and larger amounts to get the exact same rise. When the API and EIA didn’t match, it was lights out. I dumped 50% of my oil stocks, now need to either dump the rest of hedge with SCO until we can land at the next low.

    • SonOfGud
      SonOfGud says:

      how reliable are those analogs M?
      have you ever revisited any to see how closely they predicted the future price?
      would be interesting to see

      • Maria
        Maria says:

        Have not followed a wave pattern in it’s entirety yet… only just started using as an ‘observation’ tool. Sort of an interesting ‘fact’ of what was – ie. what this wave looked like in the past… and well .. hmmmm… wow – if history repeats – hmmmmm .. For now, I am tracking the candles “up to” today…. for me — that is the Interestingly Freaky phenomenon i doubt I’ll ever tire of… Someday… i do wish to research & backtest price history… but – that will have wait until after I hire my live-in butler, masseuse, maid, accountant, etc … u get the point. ;o)

        In the meantime .. have at it … ;o)

        • SonOfGud
          SonOfGud says:

          remember this one M?
          top one was an EW projection / a guess 🙂 at where gold was heading.
          the middle one was a day’s duration on a *2 minute* chart, from way back whenever.
          bottom was superimposed match-up.

        • SonOfGud
          SonOfGud says:

          holy cr@p,.. better not go down to $1.20… & with a gap!
          not sure my nerves could stand it

        • R Byram
          R Byram says:

          nice chart – but GPL blew right through my stop – and so here I am at a hope and hold moment in life. In unintentional investor. How can I protect from this? Are you using Market Stops? instead of Limit Stops?

          • Maria
            Maria says:

            yes… well .. u best sit down for this answer .. lol
            It depends on my work schedule, and please do NOT – take this as advice (anyone) — it’s not really a good idea — BUTT (snicker) .. when maria just ‘wants to, needs to, has to trade’ well then, a workinGirl’s gotta do what a workinGirl’s gotta do… ;o)
            Soo, if I know i won’t be able to check in and i want to protect my gains… i will just use a naked as a jaybird market stop – which i did with Aumn&GPL .. but seriously… not even kidding i was trailing like 3 cents! lol -that’s how tight i had that noose.. the Maria Pendulum had swung into the ‘take profit’ territory…

            Also – VERY important distinction— I was holding these two in my Vanguard Roth – which over the years, has been very kind with like 8/10 market stops within a cent or two which is very pleasing. HOWEVER, when trading in say my TradeKing acct… I try to ONLY use limit orders as 9/10 times they rip u off ridiculously bigtime!! ugggh reckaFrezzers.

          • R Byram
            R Byram says:

            Ok, thanks, that’s good advice. I usually try to position my stops below the last step up – ala Stan Weinstein’s method, but need to get a little tougher on these.

          • Maria
            Maria says:

            but … everything depends on ‘timeframe’ … i was ready to take profit…so in essence stopped myself out… there’s always another trade my man… I truly believe that. I’m all set to hop back in when the time is right… ;o)

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            Same issue – if you take a position and goes against you immediately within seconds (which has certainly happened plenty of times), you can’t really trail the stop and you have a market stop and then you see it gap below that pre-market and now BAM! you’re stuck or taking a huge loss and selling at the bottom. I haven’t cracked this one yet.

        • Cason
          Cason says:

          That’s been the issue this entire time – everything is so extended, what is your entry. I’m still looking ok in GPL but if you bought the highs a few weeks ago, you’d be in the hurt locker right now.

  14. Crystal
    Crystal says:

    Well, got stopped out of CWEI — looks like today is the yin to our previous days of yang.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Sorry! Mr. Clayton and Mr. Williams have a helluva energy company going, but oil just kicked them in the teeth. I mentioned on Tues I am now selling rips in oil instead of buying dips. I sold CWEI first thing his morning at a profit and thank goodness I did. I sold WPX at breakeven yesterday.

      I still have USO calls (drat!!!) which are now essentially worthless and OAS and BTE, which I might just be stuck with right now. I can’t believe that OAS, which has been so good to me recently, would hurt me so bad. Oh the humanity!!

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      That’s a good looking chart, breaking out of consolidation on big volume. I bought PGLC Yesterday, looks similar. Moving higher.

  16. Bill
    Bill says:

    If I look at Silver on the 1 hour chart a couple of things look promising. One we are at the 38.2% Fib and getting some basing. Two the RSI is oversold and moving higher. Three I am getting a buy signal (BLUE) on my stochastics program. Fingers crossed for tomorrow. refresh for chart

  17. R Byram
    R Byram says:

    just had a look at GPL on marketsmith. They give it an RS rating of 99 – doesn’t get much better than that. Today was the largest volume in over a year – 11,825,900 shares traded. Sales and EPS don’t look that amazing though. Earnings report due Aug 5 (estimated) so hopefully I can be out before then.

  18. Cason
    Cason says:

    So, as everyone will now see in Alex’s Friday report, oil is ow broken. I have been looking to exit for the last few days. I escaped CWEI still with a bit of profit, WPX at breakeven but am pretty well buried in OAS which lost the 200-day today.

    I also sold LABU earlier as well as X. Thinking now, may have wanted to hold X but I sold at the highs of the day at a profit so a win is a win. Now, I also have tons of cash ready if we get a few days of pullback on miners!

  19. Cason
    Cason says:

    That’s what I was going to say. No comment about the chart, but I’ll talk about the ticker all day if you want. 😛

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