July 27th – Another Fed Wednesday

/137 Comments/in /by

Waiting on Fed Wednesday to see if there will be any special reaction is getting old  🙂

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SPX – This was after Mondays trading, we could see a drop or just continue sideways.

SPX 7-25

 

Not much changed , huh?

SPX 7-26

WTIC – This was also Mondays chart for Oil.  Not much changed with oil either, but we are a day closer to a dcl.  Average timing of that low can be 30 days or longer.

WTIC 7-26

Day 27 and Oil did break that $42.49  slightly on Tuesday.

WTIC 7-26 b

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So not much changed in many sectors of the markets, but commodity stocks  (especially Steel stocks or Iron Ore) , are breaking out and remain bullish.  You may recall that recently I posted this

STEEL

 

STEEL – I posted this chart of STEEL on July 8th and pointed out the break out. The break out did run and…

STEEL 7-10

 

STEEL –  It broke out, ran higher, and back tested. Tuesday had nice volume as it surged higher.

STEEL 7-26

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SO take a look at X, AKS, CLF, FCX, TCK, STLD, ZEUS and our other commodity metal stocks.  They are breaking and running higher.  They are possibly leading the way before Miners start another leg higher.  How long can the FED continue to say that “inflation remains tame and …..”  amidst rising metals prices?  Hmm  Ummm   We’ll see if she mentioned inflation today and sends Precious Metals & Miners higher.  I’m going to discuss my guess on that one in the weekend report.

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GOLD –  We are close to a dcl, and I think that a close in the blue circle will confirm that.  If this is all part of the 1st daily cycle out of an ICL, it is day 40 today… OR day 4 with the low in place last Thursday. Peak on day 25  (R.T.).

GOLD 7-26

GOLD 7-26b

GDX  WKLY – I love the persistence of the Miners , pushing through a lot of resistance. Currently we see GDX bounced off of support. Excuse the typo on the chart Secret

GDX 7-26 wkly

 

GDX DAILY – I think that a close above $29.50 confirms a dcl in Miners. We would be on day 3 unless the lows of Monday are taken out.

GDX 7-26 d

Various Miners are still setting up in Bullish alignment. A couple of examples of pull backs that are bullish would be TGD and even AUMN. 

 

TGD – Break out & back test.

TGD ACTS CORRECTLY

 

Cup & Handle

TGD 7-26

 

AUMN –  This Miner didn’t participate in the upward move much, but it is still holding support on a back test.

AUMN 7-26

 

 

There are some Miners that are being accumulated to the point that they have not even hardly pulled back. 

This is AU- It has a bullish sideways consolidation. It has now tripled out of it’s Jan lows.    

AU 7-26

Other charts that look just like this are  NEM, RGLD, etc.

RGLD

SO I think we are close to another run higher in the precious metals sector, giving us further gains in miners.  I’m still holding many of my Miners and I’m viewing this sector as a ‘buy the dips’ in a bull market area.  For those conservative traders that do not like to ride down holdings in a pullback, your time may come after the fed Mtg.  You can look for  confirmation into the close, as shown on the charts in this report.  Lets see what this Fed Wednesday does, especially after 2 P.M. and into Thursday. 

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~ALEX

 

137 replies
  1. Shermo
    Shermo says:

    another market that may have bottomed in a bull market pull back is soybeans. purchased yesterday morning and looking to set a new cycle up…we’ll see.

  2. Cason
    Cason says:

    Check out X in pre-market. I cried myself to sleep on my HUGE pillow last night ’bout selling that to early.

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        I sold cause I got scared!! A few weeks ago, not cause earnings. I let emotions win instead of analysis, that was the problem.
        Yes, taking off to reduce risk makes sense – good to call that out here and the difference. Hope to get another entry one day!

  3. CS
    CS says:

    Don’t feel too bad Cason, I sold my X too early as well. But I plan on making that lost opportunity up along with much more on the precious metals and energy sectors. : )

      • Bill
        Bill says:

        I read it twice I just think a little differently. I see that big volume day on the 27th as the start of 2nd DC, and now we start the 3rd DC. If that’s the case then we will not have as good of a run as we did the previous 2. That’s why I asked you Yesterday if you thought GDX would break to new highs this cycle. IF however, you are correct and this is day 4 of the 2nd DC then we could have a monster run. 40 days is very long for a gold cycle, but they have been getting longer. Just don’t know.

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          I know, I have that count for the Miners, and I did start out with that count for GOLD as well, Bexit being the start of a new daily.

          I had the same concern that a 3rd daily could peak by day 10 or 12 or so.

          I changed my count because I felt that this last dip in GOLD is too long and drawn out for a 1/2 cycle low.
          Like you said, if this was all one daily cycle out of the ICL, then the next one could be pretty good.

          I still see Gold going to $1400’s and eventually even $1500’s, and that could do a lot for Miners.

          • Bill
            Bill says:

            No Kidding, the right miners will 2x or 3x with that move. The big question is which ones? Will fundamentals come into play more?

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            I’m somewhat guessing, but I think Fundamentals will come into play after earnings are released 2 or 3 quarters out of the lows- then it will be bit clearer where they are heading with higher metals prices. They’ll also be looked at with a view toward future prospects – even if they arent producing, having a large amt of gold in the ground leads to a possible buy out by bigger companies.

  11. Crystal
    Crystal says:

    I was looking at the SN chart last night… It may be ready to go. What do you think? I might put in a starter pos.w: a stop

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      It is shaping up. If you draw a downtrend line, it is safer to get in once it breaks above that, but you would probably be buying higher if the lows were in on it.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Yeah, It moves quickly and still has plenty of room to go higher.

      I put a bigger chunk on AXU last week, I’m hoping that that gets above $2.

  15. Bill
    Bill says:

    Alex who do you like chart wise? I see SN, GPL,TRX , THM, SWC, CDE all mentioned here this morning.

    • Crawdaddy
      Crawdaddy says:

      Alex I was just now going to ask you to take a look at $PLAT . Looks bullish both dailly and weekly to me with cup & handles plus a inverse head & shoulder

  19. nancytheartist
    nancytheartist says:

    Uh Oh….came back and I’m not so sure I love my CLF anymore! Any news on earnings get leaked??

  22. Bill
    Bill says:

    AUMN, was up to $0.95 this morning, now back where it started at $0.89 (almost there). This is with GOLD up $6. I might have to set some free.

  24. LeChiffre
    LeChiffre says:

    heads up about KGC. Decided to sell at a loss (!!!) after today’s action. Not feeling it. Earnings tonight. they should be great, right? but After GPL surprise offering, I am a little shell shocked. There has been a seller crushing any spike. I can always rebuy lower.

  29. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    Making back some of my GPL loss…..now I wish i had bought more to average down the cost……but just couldn’t bring myself to do it….:)

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Tammie, often I do the same. But actually makes more sense to make the best trade you can. If that’s GPL now then go for it. But if you can make twice as much with another miner than GPL (which we sure could have last 2 weeks) then it would be better to take the loss and make that and more back in a better trade. Again, just a suggestion that is REALLY hard to actually do! I still struggle with that concept though I know it.

    • Maria
      Maria says:

      i sold into close .. .. mostly because it’s been a great gainer and I will be on the road tomorrow – same w/ nugggy…
      no 3xers on the road…

      • Bill
        Bill says:

        Ya, I can see a possible break out. I’ll stay in LABU past my $42 target. As long as the markets keep moving higher (Nasdaq is) then I’ll stay in it. Its been a great trade. So Far.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      I’m sorry I doubted. I thought markets would re-trace some so I sold LABU last week. Oops. Well, still had a good trade as I was in early. Way to late to chase now!

  31. Crystal
    Crystal says:

    If this is only the beginning of another run higher – unfettered by another FED meeting until SEPT — I need to buy some Depends.

          • nancytheartist
            nancytheartist says:

            I figured….but still, they keep you on the edge of your seat! Thanks for the answer. I bet your portfolio looks good because mine did when I got home..and I think we hold some same positions. Well, have a good night…time to cook.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            They may have kept you on the edge of your set wondering ‘will they or wont they?’ , but we were in the cycle timing for a low. That means BUY the dip down, and the news is going to send it higher.

            🙂

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            Thanks! I’m trying to copy Maria. I bought NUGT and GDX calls Mon along with SA, MUX, SAND. 🙂

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Usually people are feeling negative emotions in a sell off, so they do not dare to buy the dip. In fact, many will sell right at the lows.

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      Now we see the logic of buy the dip whe timing for a dcl is here.

      it certainly doesn’t always feel feel right………
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      …..until later!! : )

      • Johnny
        Johnny says:

        Hi Alex, Quick question. Etrade reported TGD earnings scheduled for July 28. Now they have it delayed till August 12. Why do earnings get to be put off a couple of weeks? Just curious. Thank you.

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        Yeah, I was a bit nervous plunging on that add today b/c you don’t always know how these crazies will trade big news. I added at 2:11 PM. Not the crazy spike low (drat, meant to have a limit it but got distracted by work) but after it dipped, still unsure if we would rise into the close. But I had faith!

  34. Carlnetscouts
    Carlnetscouts says:

    I’m in China for a few weeks so just saw the move. I’m going to celebrate by eating some spicy tofu for breakfast.

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