July 13th – What’s Up?

Just about everything lately. It has become a traders paradise!

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SPX – If there were a lot of shorts shorting this high, they may have to cover and push this further along.

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 CONUNDRUM – I mentioned yesterday that the XLE was actually looking good, Oil stocks were setting up nicely, but Oil looked weak. At that point, I didn’t trust the energy stocks, thinking that if Oil rolls over further,  they’ll drop with it.What has 1 more day added to the picture?

 

WTIC – My thinking was that Oil was putting in Lower highs and lower lows. I expected a bounce, but nothing special.

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WTIC – Oil suddenly jumped up $2 +.  Notice that at a glance it looks similar to the pop on June 20th, and that one rolled over.

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WTIC – I’m watching the overhead resistance, but I think that OIL may actually push higher. I find it VERY HARD to believe that cycle count is stretched from the April lows to now as 1 daily cycle.  That would be a day 45 peak , and 66 days long if I counted correctly. Did BREXIT stretch that daily cycle to the recent low? That is not normal if it did, but wait until you see energy stocks.

I DID mention something about OIL in the last report that is worth repeating. Oil has been strong  (like Gold was)  and I said that it would be possible that OIL doesnt pull back all that much, it may just go sideways dip like gold did.  I just have to wonder if Oil is about to break out higher, and I wonder that because…

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XLE– This is a bullish move by the XLE, and I will also show you that MANY Energy / Oil stocks are bullishly setting up.

Tuesday in the comments while the markets were moving real time, I started seeing MANY Energy stocks acting correctly. I posted this around lunchtime and will discuss it further later in the report.  Click to enlarge if necessary. 

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THIS MARKET IS TURNING INTO A REAL TRADERS PARADISE

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GOLD & MINERS

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GOLD – I had labelled an ICL for May 31, and it is confirmed.  BREXIT caused a flash fire in Gold after several days of selling in June, and I thought that we got our DCL with that selling since the 10sma was taken out for 3 days .  At this point it is unclear, but I do think we could get a back test of the recent break out and then Gold will push higher.  Gold remains bullish regardless of cycle count, so watch the trend lines.

 

GDX – Miners held up above their 10sma, but a ‘back test’ of the break out could come here too. I’m holding my Miners, since many are acting individually and I believe this dip will eventually lead to new highs.

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I have been asked about buying Miners on the pull back. I will be adding to some. I wanted to show 2 stocks that could be setting up as a good buy,  or consolidating.  With that in mind, if you own them  ( I DO) or were looking to enter, you can at least see 2 possible outcomes and go from there.

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TRX – I just wanted to show that this might be a bull flag, see the weekly chart below for potential.  It also may need to consolidate, and that is what it did through May. SO if you own or enter a trade and see that it is just going sideways, you could sell and trade something else until it is ready again.  ( I did that with LGCY) .

TRX COULD JUST TAKE OFF HIGHER TO $1.60ish, as shown this wkend on this chart.

AUMN –  Same story here. It looks like a nice Inverse H&S , or cup & Handle riding the 10sma.  I actually think that it is a bull flag, because with GOLD down $12 two days in a row, it has held up very well.  It should be noted that it can just go sideways too.  I’m holding both TRX & AUMN  for now. I want to add to AUMN if it remains like this.

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COMMODITY STOCKS

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In the weekend report, I mentioned that METALS  and commodity stocks were shaping up & looking good.   CLF, X, AKS,  FCX, CENX, AA, ETC. Lets discuss trade ideas and see what is going on with the markets breaking to new highs and a possible surge in Commodity & Energy stocks.

With some of these commodity stocks breaking out, I believe that they are just getting started with another run higher out of their recent consolidations. So if you can ride the wiggles, you can just enter a position in many of these and ride them.  OR – you may want to wait for a pull back if you worry about wiggles.    Unfortunately, if these run for a bit, the pull back may occur higher.  Lets take a look.

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CENX – Can we buy this if it is up 10% Tuesday and just ran from $6 to $8?   In my experience, I find that often a long consolidation like this leads to an immediate run to prior highs.  Yes, you may want to wait for a pullback,  but…

 

CENX –  In the long run, you may not want to miss this by a few pennies. Dont get ‘too cute’.  CENX has consolidated since February, thats 5 months!   Pull backs can be shallow, and this may run higher quickly. 

 

AA-  I posted this Monday.  What I said about CENX above applies to AA.  It broke out with the release of their earnings report. It will likely run to $11.50 and form a handle, then break out and run.  It just ran from $9 to $10+. Too late?

AA –  Was a $45 dollar stock, eventually it will probably go back there over time.

 

HBM -I posted this in the weekend report.  It broke to new 2016 highs today.

My June 8th wkly chart shows that it has the potential to double from here and more.

CLD – CLD was up 13% today. This can easily run to $3.75 short term.  Look at a long term chart for the potential.

 

FCX – I think that FCX is preparing for a bigger break out.  It has consolidated in this price range since the spring too. The price projection is a double over time too.

SO I am showing those metals charts for 2 reasons. 

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1. I’m pointing out that it’s not just 1 or 2 commodities running, they all are.   X, AKS, CLF, CENX, CLD, FCX, HBM, etc etc are on the move. See CLF.

2.  It is also to warn us not to get too cute if you are waiting for a pull back.  Missing it by pennies and watching it double is a drag, and that is what these very well could do over time.

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So lets look at some ENERGY stocks. So many are actually looking like proper set ups and break outs, that I cant ask  “ What about Oil? I thought it was making lower lows and lower highs? “ .  I think the stocks may be telling the bigger story. They are being bought up and accumulated apparently, as you will see.  As we saw,  XLE is breaking out. REMINDER:  DUE DILIGENCE is on the buyer.  Look up the companies last earnings report or recent news items for further info.  I do not know all of the fundamentals of these companies, these are bullish chart set ups.

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SWN – This is a nice break out  ( WPX looks similar).  I do NOT think these are going to stop here.

 

OAS – This is breaking out too, after a shake out of the 200sma. Is it ready to finally run out of this 3 month consolidation? 

OAS –  If it is ready to run, the upside could be very profitable. This is almost a 2 year base!

 

BCEI – Breaking out earlier Tuesday with a nice volume pop.  This volume was only as of lunch time, it closed with 8 million. I’d buy it here.  The last time it did this, it doubled and tripled.

 

AREX WKLY–  AREX ran from 60 cents to over $3, and climbed down the 50 WMA. It found support at the 20WMA.

And that was almost a 50% pullback.

 

CRC–  THIS ONE  reminds me of our  CWEI trade, except that this one did a 1:10 split.  That causes me to be cautious, knowing that this has been diluted quite a bit.  The potential on this could be huge.  SGY and NADL did reverse splits and they have rocketed higher  ( See SGY).

 

LGCY –  Even LGCY showed signs of life after a lengthy consolidation. It became very oversold, yet the RSI has recently turned higher for the first time in a long time. Closing above the 10sma was what I have been saying one should wait for. LGCY closed above the 10 & 20sma. This is a buy with a stop under recent lows.

See also  SXE, ORIG, WTI, PKD, MRO, EMES, PXD, ECA, etc etc.

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So you can see what is happening here.  There are MANY bullish charts in many sectors, and Energy is included in that group.   Gold and Miners are pulling back, but they are just doing what they should. After a pullback I expect another run higher. I am holding on to many of my recent purchases.  I may add on the dips.

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If you want to wait and see what happens with Oil / Energy stocks,  that is fine.  Oil has NOT proven itself, but the energy stocks are unmistakably bullish looking at this time.  There is always time to be sure and buy the pull back later too. It is a traders paradise, so I will try to include a couple more set ups in Thursdays report if they present themselves.  In time, Oil may actually break above that overhead downtrend line  and more Energy stocks could set ups too.  They will be included when that happens.  Happy trading!

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~ALEX