July 19th – Expectations

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Not a whole lot has changed since the weekend report, so lets just do a quick review and then discuss our expectations.

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SPX – As expected

SPX 7-18

SPX –  The pull back would likely set the trend line higher, because we just broke through the steep trend line.

SPX 7-182

 

WTIC –  From July 8 – I have been calling for continued weakness and…

$WTIC 7-7

We see that that has been the case. This can continue for a week or two.

WTIC 7-18

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 COFFEE actually is shaping up nicely, and the ETF JO has a round bottom that I think has the ability to double over time.  I know some readers here would rather invest in something that they can just ride for a while, so JO may be for you. If you look on a daily chart, it is a bit whippy, so you might want to avoid this if volatility would try your patience.

JO ETF 7-18

We were trading and discussing some of the Metals stocks and commodity stocks too. I’m rather focused on Miners for now, but CLF, AA, FCX, CENX, AKS, etc still look good and are acting correctly.

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AKS –  I didn’t realize that AKS already moved to new 2016 highs. This weekly chart also looks like it will double again from here.   Remember that big drop from $5 to $3.50? Buying opportunity, it has almost doubled.  Again, if you can stand a little volatility and hold on for a while, these stocks are recovering very nicely over time.

AKS 7-18

CENX –  I posted this in the comments today. Not only does it still look good, but this is a large 4-5 month consolidation.  After running up over 200%  from January to March , it is most likely preparing to make another run higher in the future.

Cenx

 

SO I just thought that I would mention that the Metals still look very promising and profitable over time.  I may cover them more closely after the Miners begin consolidation phase into their next ICL. Energy may be ready by then too.

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GOLD – I am expecting a move higher in Gold soon. It looks like Gold wants to drift down to that trend line and back test the break out, but I believe that it may not make it there.  Lets zoom in…

GOLD 7-18

 

This wedge pattern can break out at any time. It looks ready right now. Anything higher than Mondays highs could pass for a break, but watch for $1340 for more conviction.

GOLD 7-18 2

 

GLD – Closed green Monday, with Gold down almost $10

GLD 7-18

 

GDX – Miners closed green on Monday with Gold down over $8.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see this break out higher in a day or two.

GDX 7-18

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SO lets look at some of the Miners that we have been discussing as having bullish set ups.  They have already done well with Gold down $10 to $20 each day last week and Monday.

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We have discussed AUMN and it has broken out and continued higher Monday. If this is an Inverse H&S, believe it or not, this target is roughly $1.50.  I honestly think that we’ll Need GOLD to break out higher for that to happen.  I want to see a 3+ million volume day and I’ll be happy. 

AUMN 7-18

 

GSS – GSS was mentioned at $0.60 & $0.75 area.

GSS 7-8

 

GSS –  I pointed out that GSS is actually pushing against resistance starting in the $0.90 –  $1 area.It might go sideways if the resistance holds strong.

GSS WKLY 7-14

GSS–  It is now over $1.00   I do think that if Gold runs higher, we may see further gains, but conservative traders or those looking to lock in gains may want to take some off of the table. It might drop, it might go sideways. Long term holders can just ride it as a core too.  That weekly chart shows potential.  Read the chart below.

GSS 7-18

 

TGD was also up slightly today.  If Gold breaks higher, I also think that this could run.  

TGD 7-18

 

Like GSS, it is at resistance though.

TGD WKLY 7-18

 

KGC was mentioned here and it is NOT moving higher yet. I am keeping an eye on this and I am not shy about jumping from an extended stock to KGC if one gets moving and the other remains unable to push through resistance. 

KGC 7-18

I also pointed out NGD here.  It was at $4.84.  It has not moved higher, but…

NGD 7-13

 

Still looks very bullish  🙂

NGD 7-18

 

HMY – Recommended at $3.60

HMY 6-29

 

HMY – Breaks out an recommended again at the break out. It is currently at $4.50 and could run a lot higher after this consolidation.

HMY 7-13

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So those are a few trade ideas and expectations going forward.  I haven’t sold any of my positions in Miners at this point, unless it was to trade out of one and into another.  That has been the right choice so far.  I do expect Gold & GDX to break out higher for a peak in the 2nd daily cycle before it rolls over, so I am staying invested.  Even then we may get another peak in the 3rd daily cycle, so I will watch things as they unfold. Lets see what Tuesday has to add to our expectations.

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~ALEX

113 replies
  1. Mike
    Mike says:

    Gld and Gdx closed green as gold was not actually down $10 yesterday. Gold had rallied $10 after 4pm on Friday due to news of the coup in turkey.

  2. Sameer Khosla
    Sameer Khosla says:

    Silver momentum waning. Gold needs to break 1339 today and hold over it otherwise we may see sideways consolidation between 1310 and 1330.

  3. Rob
    Rob says:

    Hi Alex, Thanks for the report. I have a question please. I have a decent-sized position in AUMN and I got in at a good price. I want to hold it as part of my core holdings and not trade it with cycles…BUT in the 1st Intermediate Cycle AUMN retraced over 70% of its gains. You have mentioned in the past that AUMN is like a 3x ETF.
    Is it a mistake to keep it as a core – that this particular miner is one that one COULD/SHOULD be traded in and out of due to its volatility?
    I want to maximize my gains over the long-term with miners, and will hold my positions until the very top. I just wonder if AUMN is a candidate for a long-term holding.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hi Rob

      I plan on holding 1/2 of my position after selling some if we get another move higher. What we saw in the first intermediate cycle could simply be due to the price being trapped inside the base.
      See the longer term chat, like a 5yr weekly. I’d post one, but im on my tablet outside right now &charts arent readily available.Now that we may be breaking out from a base, they tend to stay above the base going forward in a bear market.

      As always,nothing is a guarantee,but if AUMN breaks free above the base, I will hold 1/2 my current position.

      Hope that helps

        • Chris
          Chris says:

          Not as impressive as Bill’s lovely looking garden or Maria’s slice of the wilderness ..cougar included!! 🙂 but the tiny island of Guernsey along with parts of Europe and the UK are enjoying (!) literally record breaking temperatures today!! Probably if I had any sense I’d be sitting on the beach right now but too hot for me!! A dip in the sea would make sense though. Maybe later!

          • Chris
            Chris says:

            This is about seven minutes drive from where I live and is the entrance of our main harbour. This was taken a year or two ago when we were heading out on a morning fishing trip to try and catch our tea…without much success!! But the weather and the views more than made up for the lack of fish!! Lol

            A few more great tips from Alex and you’ll be able to charter your own jet to visit!! Will more than happily be your tour guide. The island’s probably not a lot bigger than your ‘estate’ but plenty to see and huge amounts of history with some of the structures here dating back 5,000 years or more!!! You are welcome anytime. 🙂

          • Chris
            Chris says:

            I should know for sure but I’m pretty certain it’s a local Guernsey version of a Hawthorn. It flowers relatively brielfy but what it lacks in longevity of flowering it makes up for in the display. Absolutely love that view. 🙂

          • Chris
            Chris says:

            Yes it was a really good if rather expensive option that works well. But my brother owns the property and he had to foot the bill. So that worked fine!! lol

  4. Geurt.
    Geurt. says:

    THANKS ALEX– You said about GOLD: “I am expecting a move higher in Gold soon” Question: But what about the MACD and STO looking down?
    Thanks a lot teacher!!!

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hi Geurt

      Usually we see macd drop back to the zero area after a strong run and then a pull back. In a sideways move, the macd goes sideways and may cross down,but then when price rises,so do the macd and stoch.

      You will see that on other charts in the report today.

      Look at HMY for example in May and in June…macd & stoch pointed down before price went higher. We use indicators as clues,but when time is right…price can turn up.

      I think time is close for Gold to move higher again.

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      Yes Teacher! We are not that far thru the gold cycle. It could still move down another 4-5 days. Don’t you think?

      • Geurt.
        Geurt. says:

        Oh, oh… I teach my patients, and ALEX his……
        It could???…. but I think it will go up from here, we will see BILL
        Just bought some Kinross before it go higher.

  5. Robert
    Robert says:

    ALEX or other informed member…. What is this BITCOIN craze? Is it something to invest in or a scam? anyone know?

  7. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    In the above report, I mentioned that it is important to me to see a 3+ million volume day in AUMN.

    15 minutes into trading AUMN has 500,000. and is up another 8%. Today could be the day I was looking for.

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        It’s kind of hard to believe that these things happen, but more often than not, you get a back test of a break out out of nowhere.

        Chart of BAA

        • LeChiffre
          LeChiffre says:

          BAA is doing its dance “consolidation”.
          Alex, are you still holding from low .20? I owned this baby in two accounts. I am waiting for a spike “a la” TRX, GSS, AUMN

  11. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    AUMN stretching it out now – currently up 17%.

    It has been in my reports since the end of May, but almost daily for the past week, I feel that it is safe to say that many here are enjoying the day : )

  12. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    Most commodity stocks down down (vale, clf, cenx, etc.)….where are we on the CRB cycle? Wondering if we are hitting an ICL about now……?

  14. SonOfGud
    SonOfGud says:

    MGH & NGD very similar on my 30m as they attempt to seek out a low for this correction.. looks like support at around 30m 200eMA (no chart so don’t refresh)

  16. R Byram
    R Byram says:

    Alex you don’t seem to be too bothered by the threat of earnings reports. Is that just because the miners are moving so strong that they don’t have as much impact?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      It’s 50/50 for me at this point. The charts are set up bullishly in many, so I use that first .

      The markets are forward looking. It doesn’t mean that some wont get hit by an ugly earnings report, but I think that these Miners are now selling gold at $1350 – that would look better for their bottom line than when they were selling it at $1040.

      Bull market surprises to the upside, they may be forecasting in a more positive light

      BUT anyone who wants to be sure to lock in profit can step aside and wait for reports if they see that they are being released.

  17. Bill
    Bill says:

    ALEX, you selling CENX here? Im not in it, but it looks like its headed lower. Lower high on the daily chart

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        I actually did a market order and got filled at $1.02.

        The real Number that I was looking at was $0.99. I saw it this morning and thought that it is the back test of this break out on a 3 day chart. SO I said this morning that if we tag $0.99, I might buy it, then it shot right up to
        $1.16 and I thought,
        “Hmm, no back test”. Now AUMN dropped all the way back, so I can add as I wanted to this a.m.

        Now if it keeps dropping I just sell what I added and conclude that I am wrong about back test.

        Right now I’m watching AUMN bounce, but it looks like a weak bear flag on the 5 minute chart.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Yes, it never did hit the $0.99, so maybe I get a second drop and the lower low on the 5 minute ( down to the 99cent area) has divergence, and then the back test is complete.

            It doesnt HAVE to back test, but they often do test break outs.

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            Not sure we’ll get another chance to add but if we do I might as well. Already starting to formulate plan for next cycle low!

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Still looks like a round bottom on a 3 month, and looks ok overall. These commodities are tough, because they move a lot, but when you look at AKS, FCX, X, etc- they were fine in the long run, just volatile.

      I’d watch it using a 13 sma and a 50. The 50 is curling down ( not great, but price is still above it) – the 13 is still holding. Personally I MIGHT consider a sell using one of those averages as a guide, but that’s as a trader, not if it was a longer term position. . A close below the 50sma may be a warning.

  25. Steven
    Steven says:

    Hey Alex, looking to add to Baa position
    Does it still look good?, also looking at EGI, what a base on that thing but hasn’t caught on yet ,what’s your thoughts there? Thanks bro

Comments are closed.