Trading Gold

What has been the best game in town the past few weeks? Trading Gold Miners has really been explosive. Look at charts of VGZ, MUX, ASM, CDE, AG, FSM, and more and you’ll see solid gains in these once hated Miners. I want to discuss trading these miners further, since we have been killing it in some of these.  Lets go to the charts…

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XRA –  On June 27th, I mentioned that this is an explosive set up, and showed a few reasons why. I was buying .

I then posted this on the 28th.  With Gold down $15, XRA powered higher. Last chance to get in?

And then Wednesday-  BOOM! – just like the VGZ and MUX trades, this exploded higher. Up 26%  at the close.

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I was asked ” Did you sell the pop?”, this is what I’m  looking at…

I pointed out this explosive base too when I recommended it. XRA is at $1.30 with yesterdays pop.  Look at $1.30 on this chart, I do NOT believe that this move is done.

VGZ – Notice how VGZ exploded.  Compare the 2 charts. These moves are very difficult to do price projection ‘sell point’, because of the way they extend beyond normal parameters.  This may want to move even higher, in the same fashion that it dropped into that base. Swiftly.

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More on Miners after a quick market review

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DJIA – (Sorry, I grabbed the DOW and wrote SPX) This move is actually looking pretty bullish. I was expecting a bear flag, lighter volume each day. This looks like a shake out and then a quick move off of the lows, and it is still oversold. Now we have the 50sma to take note of.

WTIC – Oil is right at a critical recovery or possible temporary fail point. Can Oil get back over $50  ( especially $50.54), or will it roll over here?

I have seen many energy stocks move higher, but not in the same explosive way that they have in the past. Some look better than others at this point. This is OAS for example. It tagged the 200sma and turned higher , so this remains healthy so far. It is still oversold and seems to have simply consolidated recent gains for the past few months. Time will tell.

GOLD SILVER & MINERS

I’ve been focused on Miners for 3 or 4 weeks more than anything else. I call it the best game in town, because if you know what to look for, you can tack on massive gains in a short period of time.  It is best not to go “All in” and try to overdo it. I just take a position,  and I have even added once the set up proves to be following through.  Lets examine the precious metals and a few trades.

GOLD – Back test and consolidating that POP.

SILVER – Breaking out and a possible inverse H&S

SILVER WEEKLY –  At a strong resistance point  (Magenta arrows) , but also possibly breaking out from this base with great upside potential.

THM – This base was pointed out 3 days ago as an explosive one.

June 27th – I  pointed out that this was ready to go.  It has all the characteristics of one of those strong runs higher.

THM Popped and gave it up a bit, it actually hit the first price projection. I can picture a bull flag forming and then another move higher, or just a continuation to the next $1.18 target.

TRX – I have been pointing out this one so that traders could get in early, and I have been following their story since March. They had some trouble at their Mines, but seemed to resolve the problem. They recently had to shut down some production due to this problem, but during this process, they made improvements to the operations and claim that production restart in this area will now produce faster / better results. On June 16th they announced these improvements and stated that they are preparing to restart production in this area.  When they do, I believed that investors would take note. I remember owning  this at $6 simply because I liked the management team  (Jim Sinclair). 

June 14th, I pointed out this base and mentioned that I had started a position when I thought that the ICL was in place.

June 20th,  I posted this chart, it was slowly moving higher to a break out point.

TRX June 29th- Yesterday TRX broke out. This will either explode today like the others, or it will quickly drop back and tag the magenta line area,  maybe even intraday. This set up does look like it will drop back first,  but we’ll see.  I added to my position yesterday.

PVG  as an example…  I just wanted to point out the break out & back test process. In real time, some people think that when a stock breaks out and stalls, there must be something wrong.  Look at PVGs break out.  It immediately stopped & dropped and that was 5 days. When you buy itand own it for 5 days and it stalls and drops, it ‘feels’ like something is wrong, but this is normal and I often add to the position if the volume remains normal and the MACD looks like that 🙂   TRX is set up a tad more like this, but we’ll see.

EXK – Many think that EXK is a lagger, but it just moved from $2.90 to $3.90 since the May 30 ICL. I think it may be building up steam for a nice run here from its last big run.  EXK ran from $1.00 -$4.25!  To me , it just needs to consolidate and then it will break out & run.

I WOULD BUY EXK & GPL RIGHT HERE.  I OWN GPL AND I THINK IT IS JUST ABOUT TO START A NICE MOVE HIGHER.

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TGD –  I also pointed out re-buying TGD again when it tagged the 200sma and successfully held. It remains bullish and is slowly making gains. Nothing phenomenal at this point, but slow and steady gains work too. $0.22 to $0.37 is the same gains as a $22 stock going to $37 %-Wise  (Which , by the way, has been about 70% gains in 1 month.  Not Bad).

TGD – You may remember this chart of the base

HMY –  If you have been here for a while, then you remember how HMY, DRD, SBGL, etc were little rockets.  They would not drop enough to allow me a comfortable ‘low risk’ entry all the way higher from Dec to March. After a 3-4 month consolidation,  this chart looks very nice as a set up to continue higher.

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So those are some trade ideas.  I will try to discuss ‘sell targets’ in the next report, but just look at VGZ, MUX, ASM, etc.  They just kept running after I sold my first partial positions. Mux from $2.10 to $3.75 is great, but it just went sideways and now may keep going.  Notice: It gets volatile, and yes there will be down days, but MUX just keeps trucking, even with gaps below.

Yes, they got volatile, but they haven’t collapsed yet, right? They just consolidate and may continue higher. These are explosive bases that are rare opportunities.  You can sell partial positions to lock in some gains anytime you want,  but  BUY & HOLD is also a great way to make the good gains until the intermediate cycle tops.  We just started out of an ICL 4 weeks ago, they run 5-6 months low to low lately. I’ll  try to discuss basic sell points in the next report if I have time. There is SO MUCH going on in the markets these past few weeks, the reports take longer to write with so many ideas to share. 

Thanks for being here and enjoy your Thursday trading!

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~ALEX