Technical Difficulties
To start with, I know many followed me on this trade, since it was pointed out a few times as low risk above the 200sma and very oversold. You should not have been stopped out with price holding the 200sma, as part of the trading plan.
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CLF – May 23 – Low risk entry above the 200sma, stop loosely below the 200sma.
May 25- A trend line was also acting as support and the MACD was correcting itself.
CLF May 31 – Sweet, up 40% more today.
If you entered that trade with a solid trading plan that you were not going to sell unless it broke down, you made a great trade.
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Now for the “technical Difficulties’ heading.
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Due to circumstances beyond my control, I am in an area that has very limited WIFI capabilities. My reports are going to have to be a little more to the point this week. They will be a bit shorter than normal and focused in important areas, but next week things will be back to normal. So lets do it this way…
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SPX, DJIA, NASDAQ, IBB, etc – No change from the weekend report. Still a Bullish set up, though a temporary pullback can obviously happen at any time. I said in a prior report that the SOX (Semi Conductors ) were bullishly leading .
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SOX – Higher low and breaks out to almost 1 yr highs. See charts of TSEM, CY, MU, INTC, etc. They could be “Buy set ups” on pull backs in the future.
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$WTIC – No big change from the weekend report here either
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NATGAS – From the weekend report, there was a squeeze taking place between the 200& 50sma, Positive MACD divergence. I said in the weekend report, ” I think NATGAS is preparing for a break out”
NATGAS May 31 – NATTY broke out strongly above that 200sma resistance are.
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NATTY CLOSE UP – You can see that this is day 7 and the MACD turned up above the zero line. This is bullish and Natgas wants to run a bit.
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GOLD – This could turn into a DCL or just a pause in the selling, it is too hard to know. It looks like a shake out of the March 28 lows. Using cycles, you would not expect this to be an ICL. More on that in a minute.
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GDX – May 31 – If Gold bounces here, will GDX just test the trend line break and drop into a final ICL? Possibly. Could this be something more? Possibly.
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My weekend report mentioned ‘Timing’ for the Intermediate Cycle. You should re-read that report if you do not recall my thinking for Gold & miners, because that was Part 1- this is somewhat of a Part 2.
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Mini Review –
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In part 1 I mentioned how Gold could just keep selling off this week and finish the drop. I used these charts in the weekend report to point out ‘timing’.
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Lets examine the move out of the 2008 lows on the chart below.
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That 2008 drop into an ICL was not even 50%, that drop from Highs to ICL was a tad more than 38%. It then got volatile and choppy, likely being accumulated. Stop run after stop run and reversal higher. It was also 5 months from ICL to ICL, like I mentioned in my weekend report. We are currently 6 months from the last Dec 2015 ICL.
GOLD MAY 31 2016 AGAIN – 6 months from the DEC ICL. A Tad more that a 38.2% drop. Stop run and reversal. HMM? Honestly, originally I expected at least a drop to the 50% and $1160-$1170 area, but if this Bull is back, surprises often come to the upside. I want to be open to this possibility.
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What about Miners? I am looking at our current drop and seeing interesting things when I look closely. As mentioned in my weekend report, we should be open to the idea that we could be closer to an ICL in GOLD , and not just a DCL. Tomorrows report will have to cover Miners and some interesting details that I found there. I may add a little to “Core” positions a little early here, and I will explain that in tomorrows report. I cannot recommend that for those that cannot take some draw down. Again, we have to know “Who am I as a trader / Investor?” Chart a course based on that. More on this tomorrow.
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Again, I apologize that the reports will have to be a bit abbreviated. Think back to when we all had AOL email addresses and the dial up internet that would say continually say , “Loading, Loading, Loading” as 1/16 of the page would appear at a time. You could click a link, go make a sandwich, and come back by the time that page loaded. I FEEL LIKE I AM THERE. 🙁
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~ALEX
P.S. CLD could be bought with a stop below Tuesdays lows. It had a nice sign of strength Tuesday, breaking back above the 10sma and closing at the highs, but it does face resistance overhead with the 50 & 200 sma there. It is oversold .
Where is everyone?! Do you all have your Buy/Wish Lists ready for metals? Care to share?
Still working on it. I’ll do JNUG and GDX calls if we can identify the ICL correctly. Looking at AUY, RIC, EXK maybe SSRI, MUX, SAND if price is right. SA still on watchlist, really hasn’t pulled back much.
Thanks for sharing your list. I am looking to add to my AUY, MUX, NGD, NG,HL and CDE if prices look ok. I want to add EGO which I have in my other account under water from long ago…so I want to get some in this account too and see some positive gains. Saw the talk above on AUMN…I got out of that with a small profit but it was an awful roller coaster ride before I escaped! Will watch that from the sidelines!
Thanks nancy for show up today. I am planning to buy NUGT / JNUG if got an opportunity,
Just a hunch – but clf could be a viable short at this point.
Alex, the CLF experience was interesting to say the least. Thankfully I kept my shares but it sure was tempting to bail. Are you holding your shares ‘Old Turkey’ after this runup?
If I have a heavy position – I would always sell 1/2 or a partial on a 40% pop. Then if the gap fills in the future I would add to that position if conditions remain bullish / healthy.
It has popped and dropped before, but conditions were different on those pops. This could be a gap & run.
Does the big volume yesterday and today matter? And also that the news was good and was a 10 year contract…so not a short term news item…and also an upgrade?
Sure does count. 2x avg volume today and a reversal off of 4.0 that’s bullish, which is why I didn’t sell all.
Thinking of selling here! Not sure yet
See attached on CLF, note the overlay of candle pattern from previous run up. Could retrace back to the lower trend line as before. Refresh. Overbought right now. Possible H&S pattern forming?
Bill, that CLF chart, if it were to come back and fill gap and touch trendline, would give a very nice W formation. I sold 2/3 ‘s yesterday, but I do like it longer term, so if it falls back to fill, i’d buy it again aggressively.
The 3 surges to a new high Mar-May is a topping pattern. She topped and got clobbered. I consider the chart ‘reset’ at this point. VALE? Exact same pattern.
Still holding CLF
Thanks Alex and Bill. My position is modest, I think I’ll give it a bit longer.
Just a reminder, when a sell off into a DCL or ICL takes hold, you can get some pretty strong drops day after day . Boom Boom Boom
Alex, could this morning’s low have been the DCL in $WTIC? Or do you have a ballpark target in mind? Thanks for all that you do here! Much appreciated:)
Last I saw from Alex was last week. He seemed to be showing a run to $50 then a dip down, maybe as low as $42. Refresh for his chart from “Breakthough”!
Thanks, Bill. The pop this morning from the oil numbers confused me a bit in that I wasn’t sure if this was it for the DCL or not.
apparently it was a DCL
I bought ERY Yesterday on this analysis. I’m looking at a 4-5 day trade.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/XlA834FC-USOIL/
AUMN: below 30 daily rsi has seen some nice pops in the last year. MACD histogram looks interesting… I’ve been buying at 200 sma, and added again today, although we’re below the major ma’s. Breaking one if my rules, but will.take the risk.
ETE is working on its third day up after a retracement and I’m thinking it is bucking the trend of other energy stocks because of its dividend more than anything else.
ETE is new to me but looks promising. Seems to be more a LP utility than many of the other energy plays. More like XLU or XEL. They also did well when other energy stocks were falling. ETE is actually making money each year which is nice to see. The 200sma looms overhead. 8% annualized dividend is attractive.
ETE is a MLP which owns the distribution networks. From Wikipedia:
“Energy Transfer Equity, L.P. (NYSE:ETE) is a master limited partnership, which owns the general partner and 100% of the incentive distribution rights (IDRs) of Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. (NYSE:ETP) and approximately 50.2 million ETP limited partner units; and owns the general partner and 100% of the IDRs of Regency Energy Partners LP (NYSE:RGP) and approximately 26.3 million RGP limited partner units. ETE also owns a non-controlling interest in a corporation (ETP Holdco Corporation) that owns Southern Union Company and Sunoco, Inc. The ETE family of companies owns approximately 71,000 miles of natural gas, natural gas liquids, refined products, and crude pipelines.”
Also in this family are ETP (another MLP) and SUN (selling their fuel in their own convenience stores) Both have attractive yields which makes for a little less volatility and easier to hold in a draw-down. Of course, the downside is that if the dividend is cut/reduced the volatility comes back in spades.
Good afternoon Edward!! ETE was not on my radar, but it is now! Wished i would’ve seen.it sooner. Nice candidate on a pullback. I like to stick to ETF’S when I can, but the dividend in this is VERY attractive. Thank you for pointing it out.
Peter, you are welcome! If the dividend stocks interest you there is a free dividend grader run by Louis Navellier that I think is very valuable as to judging dividend continuity and thus preservation of stock price. Just google it, can’t inset site.
Sure looks better than than some of the absolute crap energy I tried in the past 30 days like CJES, EVEP, BAS. I have to go shower, I feel dirty just typing those crap tickers down. Uhhh…
Uhh…isn’t that the one that Maria and CF call the ‘Widow Maker’. Help!!
AUMN??? Dont tell me that…. :-/
Time for a .gif!!
Idk, looks good. I’m thinking about taking stab, but no more money than I could stand if it dropped all the way back into the teens (of cents!). But if back to highs would still be rewarding.
Man, IF the gold bull is back, this thing has so much upside it’s sick! They all move at different speeds, and right now this has taken a good beating. But, again, *IF*….. This could be yuge…
Alright, my limit order is in!
lol.. yes… she’s a WILD one… 😉 strap in………
Strapping on right now! Let’s do this!!
*i currently have no position.. she hasnt called me back quite yet..
..but always have on watch..that and akg, mux, etc.
.. one of my best performers this year ;o)
Now the one stock that has me itching to sell is CENX! Looks like it wants to fall to mid-$5. I saw it as a possibility when I decided to hold it, after falling below 50 sma, but holding is easier said than done!!!!
Not yet! China manufacturing data was bad, X got kicked in the nads, too. But you don’t want to lose your position over a reaction to make-believe China data, do you?
C-man! No worries man, I won’t sell it now anyway. Had no idea about the China data ’cause the only news I watch is Sportscenter! I said it because it just can’t seem to get any traction, but again, I saw it as a possibility that it could fall that low. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn’t. Another low in the next few days might diverge histogram positively; maybe that brings a little rally with it. We’ll see what happens! How’ve you been doing???
I put too much money into cash so a little bored, but have been busy with work and everything else so it’s all good.
I over traded bad last year. And I over traded options, which is worse. Don’t need to catch every wiggle any more. Finally getting a groove here. But now I’m buying AUMN.
some great trades in Bio today… IBB looks ready as back out of base and moving.. Bios remind me here of miners and energy in Feb as Bios like CLDX from 30 to 3, etc were decimated like miners.. building long positions on a basket the last few weeks
Yeah, IBB looks solid. I’ve been trying to add but haven’t seen the opportunity to yet!
But bio is a bit different than energy and miners, once they blow up many of them never recover depending on their approvals and pipelines, etc. Do have to be careful with individuals, sounds like your basket is a great way to alleviate that risk.
This IS a good place for Bios to take a rest though, IMO. I sold out of LABU here; bumping up against resistance. Maybe fills the gap lower, then keeps heading higher? We’ll see….
Agree. I sold 2/3 (too early!!) so position is small enough that if it goes down I’ll just buy more!
Building a long-term position in STX… Look at that 5 year chart and the way it’s reversing 🙂
Anyone else have BWEN with me? 🙂 I like how it’s quietly moving up at a steady pace 🙂
What a nice uptrend Crystal.. totally missed it. But good for you! You have a real good eye for winners! 🙂
a humble thanks, but knock on wood!
Missed it. Looks like she’s at the top end of her recent range so probably not a place to start an initial position!
True for the short term Cason, but this is at least a 5 year investment if they stay on track
Wow. Yeah, I just can’t do that! I have to have some action!
Be on guard next few days folks! Tomorrow is ADP then Fri is Jobs Friday. Draghi speaks tomorrow then OPEC AND weekly oil inventories. Hold onto your hats, this is going to get bumpy!
Maybe jobs starts gold to ICL and June Fed mtg puts in the low? Who knows!!