June 25 Weekend Report … KA-Boom!

Last week the General markets went through a period of indecision. Each morning the futures were green, then the markets sold off into the close.  We had the Fed giving testimony to congress and the Brexit Vote scheduled for the end of the week. 

After the Brexit vote, the future went Ka-Boom, with Gold up almost $100 at one point, and the general markets  ( in the US/ and globally) panicked.

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SPX – The Dow closed down over 600 points, the NASDAQ was down over 200 points, and the Spx was down about 76 points. That is a rather ugly candle.

The ICL  (Lows) were not broken, but…

 

Any follow through on Monday and we’ll see a break down of those May lows.  I am looking at Banking and I think we can see where this is heading. If this is a clue, expect further selling and not a 1 day panic crash.

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BKX – This is a break down and indicates that even if you see a bounce, we are likely to be at the start of a real sell off. It is very interesting that last week, the banking index could not recover the 200 or 50 sma. They were both tagged and rejected by a bear flag and then Ka-Boom! Dropped like a lead weight. 

THE USD – At one point I did expect the USD to weakly bounce and back test the break down of the 200sma. I drew it here on June 9th. That could take 8-12 days or so I was thinking.

Honestly, in recent reports the $USD was acting so weak that as it rolled over without tagging the 200sma, I did NOT expect it to show enough strength to get there. After the Brexit Vote, it went from 93 to 96 –  Ka-Boom! This now looks like a legitimate sign of strength, and of course we would expect Precious metals to suffer, but we know what happened there. They rejoiced, joined hands, and ran through the fields together (odd).  The USD now looks pretty strong, but I want to wait and see what it does from here.

 

WTIC – We are on the 3rd daily cycle for Oil.  I expected Oil to make a move for $58-$60 in this daily cycle.  The recent lows were not taken out, so oil is not failing here, but let me tell you how I view things when the unexpected shows up.  By the way, this drop on Brexits vote was unexpected, and I still dont really know why Oil sold off ( and I dont care what any new news articles are giving for theory unless they reported it before the vote. Everyone has a theory after the fact). My view now is…

Oil wkly – It is holding the 10WMA. That is bullish (So Far). It bears watching and I am becoming more cautious until I see proof that Oil intends to go higher, because I also see a possible rising bear wedge. It could run to the top of the wedge as shown ( $56-$60?)

The XLE did not break down either.

 

NATGAS –  Natgas Was not even affected Friday.

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GOLD SILVER & MINERS

 

I’ve mentioned that we put in an ICL at the end of May, it was confirmed recently. I mentioned that I had been accumulating Miners for over 3 weeks. I thought that this recent selling may be a 1/2 cycle low  (still may have been), and I’ve mentioned a move to $1400+ – $1500 is possible. I used various charts like these 2 below. Nothing has changed here.

 I also have been saying that Buying Miners was prudent to have skin in the game, because a move out of a bullish ICL could last for Months. I pointed out the action in VGZ, ASM, MUX as signs of something good brewing.  Nothing has changed there either.   All that said, to be honest, I did NOT expect a move like this one Friday. 

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GOLD –  Ka-Boom.  I didn’t expect this reaction, but that does look like a huge high volume break from the consolidation even though it didn’t hold the highs. Again, this is only week 4 out of an ICL. This can continue higher.

GOLD WKLY – Gold is not overbought on the weekly. The chart remains bullish.

SILVER –  This chart looks like a nice solid base, which has good upside potential. It really hasn’t even broken out of its base yet. 

GDX – MY JUNE 17th CHART –  A perfect break out & back test and tageting a nice run higher ( $35 to $40).

GDX MONTHLY-  I posted this last week to show readers that they didn’t “miss the move” if they weren’t in Jan through April. Buy miners and have cash to deploy when the next run gets going. 

June 23 –  I wanted to show an important break out of the weekly chart. The 200Weekly MA was at $24.97.  I mentioned that we might have an a-b-c-d move to $35-$40.

 

GDX Friday June 24th– GDX opened up around 10% higher and sold down too. BLACK CANDLES can be a short term top.   We’ll see.  On this chart I also point out that the Large Gap Open in early June had people waiting to buy the gap fill. That never happened. This Gap may fill this week, it may not. I do not know.

 

 This is an Older chart from June 3 –  Notice the gap open that DID Fill & see how it took a few days (I wrote that we may see this).  The GAP open this June 3rd day never did fill however. Again, Fridays may or may not fill.

 

 

GDX WEEKLY – This week GDX held the 10 WMA and moved higher.

 

GDX WKLY BIG PICTURE – Read the chart. This chart shows that a core position has and should still do well going forward.

 

SAND WEEKLY– I had pointed out that some Miners were worth looking at because they weren’t overbought and stretched to an extreme, but they were nice set ups.  This was SAND breaking out. I wrote on this chart that I expected SAND to close over $4.50 , this was a valid set up  ( BTG too).

SAND WEEKLY –  Closed at $4.83 and I do not think that it is done.  I ‘Guess’ that we could see a move to the 200 sma on a wkly basis ( 1-2-3-4-5) and then a pull back  ( a-b-c) before continuing higher.

 

SAND WKLY –  But when you step back and say ” I think Miners are recovering, and are back in a bull market”, you can see that being in it will pay off over time. It should triple plus.

 

BTG –  I was recommending BTG for the same reasons as Sand (And MUX &VGZ). It now has broken out too, but formed a doji Friday. I will add on a pullback, but it also may just go sideways and higher from here. The arrows point out other dojis on bursts higher, it went sideways and then higher. 

BTG WEEKLY – Do you see why I like BTG here too? Notice the break over the 200 sma ( Weekly basis).

Guess what.  That is what I liked about MUX too.  The ICL was the back test when I started buying Miners. look at what MUX did after getting above that 200WMA. Remember that that is where GDX, SAND, and BTG are.

 

VGZ WKLY – Yup, broke above that long term resistance ( 200 WMA) and rocketed higher.  They wont all do that, but it is a bullish set up that often pays off.

GDXJ WEEKLY –  GDXJ also broke above the 200 WMA, yet is still inside the orange base. Seems that it will eventually will run to $70 .

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Most here remember that I bought TGD at 10 cents, 12 cents, etc on the first run higher.  Then it consolidated and I sold it, recently re-buying again near the 200sma when the ICL in Gold seemed to be near. I think that TGD  may be a good set up here too, let me explain why.

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TGD–  This closed above the 50sma and doesn’t look like much of a move, but it was up 10%  Friday and had strong volume (no gap also). Could it be setting up for a run?

 

TGD WKLY –  HHMMMM, this could be pushing & preparing to break out from a huge falling wedge and make its run to the 200wma over time.   Someone could even put this on their watch list and but it after it breaks out.

 

GFI –  I owned this for a while and it was dead money.  It just went sideways for weeks and I got bored with it.  I took a look this weekend and it really is carving out a 2-3 year base.  Recently it has been moving between that 50 & 200 Weekly Moving Averages in a 4+ month consolidation.   When this closes above $5 and above the 200wma, it could move to $10,  so I want it on my watch-list. 

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CRAZY WEEK?  Yes, but think about it, it was really a CRAZY FRIDAY, so we need more time to know how certain things will play out, right?  The General Markets, IBB, XBI, XLE, OIL, Commodities, etc. all reacted unexpectedly Friday.  Gold & Miners remained the same.   I cannot tell you that I know exactly what will happen in those areas this coming week.  I do think Precious Metals are Bullish.  Oil is not broken, but bears watching. ( CWEI made a great move Friday).  The $USD surprised me to the upside and the markets got clocked and now look quite bearish.

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 So, I think we need more time to really know how things will play out going forward.  Lets see what Monday and maybe Tuesday reveal. One thing remained the same.  GOLD, SILVER, and MINERS do look like the the most bullish game in town. Ka-Boom! Monday will reveal a bit there too. Follow through? Gap fill? Buying opportunity?  Further gains? And I want to see what OIL & ENERGY do, since they are on the edge. 

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Will Oil break down? Will Miners gap fill? Will Gold just surge ahead? I do think that we can expect margin calls and more selling in the general markets. Lets be patient and see what Monday & Tuesday bring our way.  I am still bullish Precious Metals and Miners longer term. Monday should be interesting. Thanks for being here at Chartfreak and I hope that all had a restful weekend.

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~ALEX