June 6 – Lining Up
Everything that we have been discussing is still lining up. Lets review…
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SPX – I have been expecting a bullish rise since the lows in February, and a higher high after the DCL. Quite interesting that even after a very weak jobs report Friday, the chart remains bullishly lined up.
WTIC – Nothing has changed since the weekend report, Oil is still lining up at the $50 mark. Many Energy stocks came alive too, after lining up inside consolidations.
In past reports I noted that some Energy Stocks like LPI, OAS, and others did not even pull back much during their consolidation phase. Oas , for example, looks as though it may be ready to break out for another run higher. It has been struggling to get through resistance, but not dropping very hard.
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CRB – The CRB continues higher and many commodity stocks that have been consolidating are breaking higher.
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HBM – My May 26 chart showed HBM as a low risk entry, sitting on the lower channel and breaking above the 200sma.
HBM – I also pointed it out last week as a buy right here. This is my June 3 chart. Upside potential is great.
HBM had follow through Monday, another 8% and could run to $6 or even $10. This can just run higher, but if this were to drop to the trendine for a back test, it might be a good opportunity to add.
VALE began to run from it’s consolidation too. If you own it, dont sell too early, this is how it runs after lining up in a consolidation phase.
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Last week I also mentioned that Uranium Stocks were lighting up. I pointed out how some already broke quickly and since all in that sector were moving, buying some laggers might pay off. Friday & Today it has. When an entire sector starts moving on volume, I dont ask “why”, it is telling me all I need to know. I wrote about UEC, URG, URRE, DNN, etc . The following are a couple of stocks from last week, and then today.
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June 2 – this was UEC
UEC Today –
URRE June 2 – The Volume Pop was a nice sign.
URRE – I actually mentioned 3 or more times this morning in the comments section that URRE could be next, it was $1.75 when I wrote that ( I know , because I added to my position) . Other Uranium stocks were busting out. It hit $2.50 and is now up 48% today alone. I love the set up, this could run like a gazelle on the Serengeti!
DNN – Maybe this one is next, it is pushing on that 50sma, just like URRE was. 🙂
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GOLD – Gold battles at the 50sma. The fact that it went higher today means ( it is Monday) that we have a wkly swing in place.
GDX – GDX did not fill the gap, and it looks like it wants to break out higher to me. I can picture a slow drift down and forming an inverse H&S to build strength to power higher, but I also can picture that this pause is just enough to cause people to get nervous and sell, or maybe short it. What does a Power Gap do?
CLF – This is what a Power Gap can do. CLF just paused and then continued higher. We may have this in many Miners right now.
GPL – If this similar to CLF, it will just start moving higher. As I mentioned in the weekend report, I’d start a small position in some of my favorite Miners , and if they gap fill on light volume, you may want to add more. If they move higher like CLF, then at least you have some skin in the game and then you can add in the future on a pull back or dip.
Note: SSRI broke out to new highs and looks like it wants to just continue higher.
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A final trade idea. I also have been riding this consolidation in IPI. I also mentioned this one in the comments section early this morning. The volume started off strong. If you have been here for a while, you know that I bought it at $1.00 and it took off higher to $1.50. I sold some then, and have been riding the rest. Lets update …
IPI – This was May 11.
IPI WKLY – Tight base and good potential.
IPI June 6th – Breaking out from the recent consolidation with good volume, so I commented this a.m. about it and added to my position. I do like the potential.
IPI WKLY – I still really like the base and upside potential.
This is the same sector as POT, MOS, MON, AGU – I like those stocks too.
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So that’s what happened with the Monday trading. Nothing has changed since the weekend report, but a few trade ideas for those on the sidelines. You can see that by waiting patiently through the consolidation phases, we can enjoy the gains that come from the moves higher. Miners popped, and we are waiting for follow through. VALE, CLF, AKS, FCX, HBM , etc are moving higher again. I look forward to monitoring these sectors as they advance.
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I will be traveling all day Tuesday and will likely have the next report out early Wednesday morning, covering the market action from Tuesday. Thanks for being here at Chartfreak!
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ty ty alex! i visualize you having a Geiger counter lying around and suddenly it starting clicking then you “uh oh. we got a hot one” then voila URRE. lol.
LOL- I guess it’s a Geiger in my gut that goes off at times, : ) lol
Or for you, Que the Zepplin, “There’s a feeling I get, when I …”
… i havent been able to get that song out of my head alllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll day… :o)
yowza…
im loving Arex, Dq, cwei, –
stalkn lgcy…and that HPJ has been doing some work … and of course widowmaker… wow looking so sexy right now … i cant even stand it…… shit… wheww….
she also just slither along that TL … and tease .. like the little hussy she is… ;o)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/8yVLx5Yn/
and clne .. how could i forget clne… wooooooooop
+1 for AREX. It keeps bashing its head against that $3.00 resistance (7 or 8 times over the last 10 mo). If it breaks through, there’s no real resistance until about $4.50-$5.00. Fingers crossed.
it’s been a Solid trade… for sure… 😉
lol i recently made a monumental decision, a change IMHO of the #1 best “classic rock” track aka song (not album or band) “of all time” lol. I had “Light My Fire” The Doors (1967), but now “Stairway To Heaven” Led Zeppelin (1971). And yes I “pluck” it often.
.. i luv stairway to haven… right bill? giggle
..was my first slow dance with a guy i had a mad crush on in middle school….ahhhhh bruce…
Thoght i was gonna die….
Led Zeppelin – Led Zeppelin IV (1971):
“…After the group’s 1970 album Led Zeppelin III received lukewarm reviews from critics, the band decided their fourth album would officially be untitled. This, along with the inner sleeve’s design featuring four symbols that represented each band member, led to the album being referred to variously as the Four Symbols logo, Four Symbols, The Fourth Album, Untitled, Runes, The Hermit, and ZoSo. In addition to lacking a title, the original cover featured no band name, as the group wished to be anonymous and to avoid easy pigeonholing by the press…”
“…Led Zeppelin IV was a commercial and critical success, producing many of the band’s best-known songs, including “Black Dog”, “Rock and Roll”, “When the Levee Breaks”, “Going to California”, and the band’s signature song, “Stairway to Heaven”. The album is one of the best-selling albums worldwide at 37 million units, and with a 23-times platinum certification by the Recording Industry Association of America, it is the fourth-best-selling album in the United States…”
Alex, You know if these stocks start to go down I for one, and I’m sure there would be others, am willing to pay for you to resume your vacation. Just don’t want to change the karma.
Hey Edward,
Thanks, you’re too kind, but I’m done. Ready to come home and get back to a bit of normalcy of
– 6 a.m., hot coffee, the markets and reports. 🙂
Thanks for your awesome reports while on vacation, Alex. And thank the Mrs. for giving the okay for you to do them. 🙂
Thx Rob – I will, she is very easy going, as long as she gets her fair share of my time : ) I’m traveling all today, so no personal trading today for me, just riding the positions I have on.
Enjoy your day and drop me a line when you get a chance. Send me your famous ICHI masterpiece ; )
Hope all is well in the great white north!
Safe travel!
Thx Nancy! Stay dry- I just heard there was a tropical storm in Florida? Looks like an active year already over there!
Wow Nancy, I completely forgot you are out in the west coast of FL!! Hope the storm passed with no major damage. How are you doing????
No Pete…I am east coast…Vero Beach…north of you several hours. I sold a condo I owned in Clearwater last year…I am SO glad I don’t own it anymore. We just have had a few heavy downpours. Another one is just starting.
Oh ok… I had understood you lived in Clearwater…. we’ve had the same downpours down here. And it is already as humid as it can get!!!!!! :-/
URRE … I need to lay off the coffee today 🙂
I thought about your eye twitch when URRE went to 3.74.
LOL… I haven’t been this excited since Exaggerator won the Preakness …. EPIC move!
too bad these stocks have faded as the day went on. Let’s see what the rest of the week brings.
URRE trades like an ETF – it also seems that the ticker is as volatile and unpredictable as the actual periodic element :/
I got spooked and only have 100 shares left to gamble
Your comments on this for the last couple of days have been most enjoyable.!!! Funny woman.
nice to hear that 🙂 now that I am on vacation, I am having so much fun trading… The last two days have been a bit wild
…wait… funny ha ha.. or funny.strange…?
*insert joe pesci clip here
Maria, if you meant my comment on Crystal being funny…I meant ” ha ha funny” because she was describing such funny reactions [particularly when URRE was going nuts]…But maybe strange would apply as well….Crystal? Care to own up to that.,,, or not? LOL [just teasing]
;o)
that ‘eye twitching’ comment was HILARIOUS.. ha ha ha.. im still laughing…
“….no, no, what, like i’m here to amuse you?” “no, i was just sayin’, you’re a funny guy” “…” lmao at that scene.
Wow..congrats on vacation time….while the kids are away, the teacher will play!
You guys get out? I know this was a great trade yesterday – this one takes the elevator up AND down! Imagine anyone that bought at $3.75? Ouch. Check out BAS this week; you’d think it was a uranium play, wtf?
Just my opinion, but our stocks are getting pretty extended in the 1hr and 30 minute timeframes. RSI in 1HR VALE, AKS, CLF, and gold stocks is pretty high, where we’ve had reversals down to the 9ema or 20 sma or so. Took some money off the table in almost all positions, except AUMN and EXK. Will add again in the next days when we come down to those ma’s or lower.
Weekly charts in these are very bullish though, so still keeping skin in the game just in case. But short term, I think we come back to tag those ma’s. Some of these are 10-20% above those ma’s…..
Added to FCX on what I think is a backtest of the b/out, and sitting right on short term ma’s. Started IPI also, small. Sitting on ma support.
Yes, added IPI on today’s recommendation, right at after lows. Held back a few bucks to add, as necessary.
ORIG is off to the races today… Solid break of resistance with great volume and a slight gap up.
Looking back, stopping out of ERF at $4.72 on 5/19 was really unfortunate.
I stopped out of DNR at $2.2. That was pretty darn dumb. In fact, thinking back last night realized, I’d have a lot more money if I just froze my portfolio from 1 Mar and held everything. Geez!
Any one else take the IPI trade? My POT is up 1% but IPI did not hold up today… My son wanted to make an investment and we did some “homework” this morning. He liked the long-term chart on the stock and decided to put $500 of his life guarding $$ in it.
So now he’s down $70 –
I’m thinking of putting a stop in (which we didn’t do this morning 🙁 at $1.39 ….
Can any of you Chartists let me know how this looks for the long-haul after today’s move?
Hi Mrs. Crystal!!! We are almost there Crystal!! A couple more days and we’ll be done with school! Or at least Miami schools, hope you are almost on vacay… I took on IPI today. I’ll be honest, I am not as crazy about the chart as Alex, only because it is still below all major long term ma’s. But, I’m following Alex’s intuition on this one. It was at a place of interest for me, the 100 sma, so I pulled the trigger. It broke below that sma today, but will need confirmation tomorrow. The hourly chart looks healthy, so although it could go a bit lower, I still feel comfortable owning it. Being below those long term ma’s means it might still take some time for it to work through resistance, but the ma’s are far apart enough that if the stock broke above them, it would need to double or triple. At that point it would be recognized as starting a bull mkt. Similar to the gold stocks. So the potential is there for it to go a lot higher, before it is even recognized as being in an uptrend! Pretty good payoff possibility.
Just got down the thread to this….so you are in IPI too! OK …Please keep posting what you see…I try to follow along. Still have my VALE and CLF. So, you are going on a trip…lucky you. I agree with Crystal that CO is SO beautiful and fun. Lived in Boulder for quite awhile and had 2 of my children there. My older son is living back there again…was camping last weekend and making me jealous! Have fun!
… i did not sister.. not playin it – sorry.
i cant seem to get a count on it either… all i see is that it *appears* to be tryin to break free …. possibly a bull trap??
not that it means *anything* but here is an example of what it did back in 2009 … pretty freaky how it follows along..damnn… ***DO NOT TAKE THIS AS ADVICE*** just a quick glimpse of possibilities… ;o)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/cCrnizXw/
i can double up the charts if you care?? ie. 2009/2016 so you can see better…
*past results do not ……… lol
Thanks, Maria…I guess this will be his first big lesson in trading.
that little Flag can also do a quick double up…. ;o)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/pohnd2kp/
there are bullish and bearish ideas ….
what’s his timeframe?
He told me he wants to take the “Warren Buffet” approach… He based his buy on the historic chart (it was at $60 back in 2009)
However after the CJES debacle, we best put some stops in: maybe a partial just below today’s low and a second one somewhere else…
that is too cute C .. bravo for u getting him interested.. i went 0:3 with my kids … tho in all fairness – they were adults when I started.. lol … oopsie
Daddy’s prob gonna kick my a$$ when he gets home for my crazy ideas… *especially since I did NOT look at his chart yet or read the report.. ha ha ha — gawd – :-/ — ha ha so please don’t make any decisions based on my charts….. #pinkyswear
LOL– He just turned 21… (Business and Econ major at Emory)
#BravoSquared 😉
If it breaks below $1 and below that pennant, anyone that didn’t catch absolute lows in March should be out.
Hey Peter! Thanks for the feedback. Are you still planning on being in DC for only a day?
If you give me a heads up, I’d be happy to meet you and your little ones. I’m only about 20 minutes away from all the museums and Memorials.
That is super sweet Crystal, thank you!!! The plan is still on, however, there’s a slight wrinkle!! Now it is up in the air if we do end up driving to Hartford, in which case I’d go through DC, or, we might go to Colorado, in which case there’d be no DC. It would be great to meet you though! I’ll keep you posted. 🙂
I grew up in CO and its breath-taking, just don’t wear out your brakes on those mountain passes (down-shift!)
Just got home from work. I took IPI too. Ouch. Sorry your son gets his feet wet this way. I will continue reading down to see what everyone else says. Let me know what you decide for a stop. I am thinking more about them since I am having to be on the jobsite so much.
Nancy… Shame on me. I should have done some basic research. http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0W21WA
Don’t ever believe what they write. The chart will tell you if you should be in or out. 😉
That is pretty old but it isn’t a strong company. But we don’t have to love this one!…only take it for a ride…hopefully UP!
The 50 day held last pullback. The lower BB is curling upwards fast. Stoch and RSI still supportive. I think you hold with stop below 50 and then start to ratchet stop higher if IPI performs. I bought today as well, but at the low of day.
Thanks Cason, looking at the 1 yr chart, it’s hard to target where that stop should be. So I used the 3 month and it’s not clear where that would be, $1.17? That’s quite a drop from where we are now… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/73975f7eb3197e10edd6e72a620da403ab265a094445419e5820e2e5b65b59ed.png
I know. I have the same problems. Sorry. I’ll post more on stops tonight, but yes we all face were we grab mid-move and then if it fades the move back down to long term support is completely unacceptable. Hopefully, it turns around with other commodities this morning and we don’t have to worry about it!
Full confession: sold all of CLF today. Reduced VALE, AKS, CENX to half. Sold out of ERX also. The hourly charts for these are running TOO hot for my taste, CLF and ERX especially. Can easily see all of these coming down to 9 or 20 ma, which in the case of CLF is about a $1 down. ERX, $2-3 down. I will buy back or add to these again when the time is right. Still sitting on AUMN, EXK and FCX heavily. Gold stocks are running too high still in the hourly, but will jump all over AUY, KGC & GDXJ when the conditions are right again. ALL of these charts look very bullish in the weekly, so this is only taking some profits to add more at lower. 😉
I finally bought – EXK, AUY but only 1/4 positions so I can just keep adding, but had to get something. I’ve thought they were overbought for months and they didn’t care!
EXK I like. Yamana is still running a bit too hot, but I will be all over it again when the time comes. I just keep thinking of AUMN and how it had no business being down there at the 200 sma while the rest of the sector was still near highs. I don’t rule out that we see these things at those long term ma’s in the near future. I keep picturing a down leg in which the rest of the sector goes down while AUMN bases or even double bottoms. Just guessing. How and what will it take to get miners down to those levels, I have no clue. BTW, did you see AUMN kicking @$$ today?? Side note: to me, it looks like SLV is forming an inverse h&s in the hourly, and so is EXK. Hopefully we get a trigger and run in silver. 🙂
Another side note: intraday strength in silver.
They are all way too hot but they REFUSE to pullback, not meaningfully, just won’t do it so I’ll risk a bit here. I hope they pull back more that just means next buy is on sale! I do have a bit of AGQ hoping to hold for longer term. Hi-Ho!
Case, be on the lookout for a drop in the next couple of days in KGC to the 4.70-4.60 area. IF it happens, and bounces, we set up an inverse h&s on the 1hr. Target $5.80. I’m seeing the same setup in slv and exk… gonna look at AUY and GDXJ. Could be the reason why AUMN was ripping today…. i’ll send you an email…
speaking of inverse h&S, doesn’t it look like some miners (e.g., SSRI and AU) want to drop into a right shoulder on the monthly? Its crazy how some of the miners look like they want to run on daily scales, but look tentative on longer scales… not sure what to make of that…
I’ll take a look at it Dave. Haven’t looked at monthly in a while. Thanks for pointing it out!!
GDXJ already ripping upwards with SLV this morning, gonna open within pennies of recent highs. I’m jumping in, if I’m too early, I just buy more later!
gotta love that crude oil close with a $50 handle. geebus has this goin’ on 2-yr move been one huge govt manipulation? the answer is a series of more questions. were there motives at the beginning? were there then those that stood to gain and those that stood to lose? etc. yes. yes indeed there were a handful of “entities” that endured positives and negatives of varying degrees. brave new world. disruptive forces seem to be occurring much “quicker” than in the past. In this brave new world one is forever being forced into 1 of 2 groups. the quick, and the dead. {`_` } .
Interesting choices. Could you offer more? LOL I don’t quite fit either! I’m in between after a long day at work…I’m heading for my recliner.
annnnnd the hot tub and/or heating pad… LOL #TRUE
Yeah you do. But most energy that I follow (small caps) pulled back while XLE (Large caps) continued 2-day surge. I still think oil needs to pull back here, but that don’t mean she’s done for good yet!
Alex, great report today, man, Thanks!!
Do you see a pullback to support for URRE as a chance to trade/add? 50-day is just below at $1.92 – that could happen in minutes with this crazy thing. 10 and 20-day in the $1.65-$1.70 range; I’d lose interest very fast below that. Any thoughts?
I bought miners today!!
Oh also, while waiting for the sun to come up, this happened. Yowzer, I don’t recall ever seeing a move quite like this on the 15 minute oil chart – a full $1 bounce with conviction. I think the $50 floor is set..(but I am by far no expert!) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7804d6daac31fbdebbcb6b5c27e86c428908f5225a110c51d749656844da456a.jpg
Hi-Ho silver!
Alex, we lost and recovered 1242 yesterday then we shot up overnight with silver and oil. This confirms the near term swing in my mind. Are we free and clear to go leverage (Nuggers, options, etc) from here?