June 21- Groundhog Day?

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Monday we awoke to a Gold and Silver slam down, and the futures for just about everything else was pointing to a higher open. As the day went on, Gold and silver went higher and the general markets sold off into the close. Tuesday, the futures show pretty much the same. Will today bring what we saw yesterday? Janet Yellen is testifying before congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, and Thursday is the Brexit vote, so it seems that many do not want to commit ahead of time, we may just get more of the same.

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DJIA– The Dow regained the 50sma intraday, but then sold off into the close.

DJIA 6-20

QQQ – The Nasdaq Q’s were rejected at the 10 simple moving average. This takes on the appearance of a double top, but the indecision in the markets is hindering any progress. This chart is fairly neutral to bearish at this point, but it is getting oversold too.

QQQ 6-20

The markets are probably going sideways until this week is over. There may be a lack of commitment.

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WTIC–

WTIC 6-20

NATTY – I believe that NATTY is extended and will pullback soon. It has completed a measured move similar to the 1st leg up, and could drop to the 50sma.

NATTY

 

GOLD – That supposed big drop just tagged the 10sma and recovered. This morning we are at $1270, below the 10sma. Can it recover again? As a possible dip into a 1/2 cycle low, I imagine that it could even tag the 50sma in the $1258 area this FED/BREXIT Week .

GOLD 6-20

Bigger picture – The markets do 2 things often, they consolidate, and then they choose a direction and you see a directional move. I am expecting this based on Cycle timing ( The ICL). Unfortunately, I am expecting big volatility inside of this consolidation too, likely into the Brexit vote, but it CAN break ahead of time when expectations become known to smart money. I am long Miners.

GOLD CONSOLIDATION

SO what more can I write this week? It’s a lot like that movie Groundhog Day. You wake up in the morning and the Gold is down and the general markets are much higher.  It may continue to be that way into Friday. Using cycles, I believe that we saw the Lows in Gold (ICL) and a Daily Cycle low (DCL) in Oil. Some energy stocks have set up nicely as mentioned in prior reports, and should have more upside. With oil pulling back today, you may be able to add on a dip. 

 

From Yesterday ERF – it’s an up-trending recovery

ERF 6-18

ERF – looks like a form of a Cup & High Handle with a back test

ERF 6-20a

Looks like it has a twin ( BTE)

BTE 6-20

RIG – This is interesting,  RIG has a 25% short .  This could get running if those shorts are forced to cover. I meant to put this in the weekend report. Yesterday it hoot the 200sma and turned down. I wouldn’t be surprised if many more shorted it.

RIG 6-18

I DO NOT like to mention the widow-maker due to its high volatility and ability to gain and lose huge % s in a day or week.  I did, however, make huge gains in AUMN in 2010, when it ran from being under$1 to $27 in the beginning of the last Bull run for precious metals.  Am I saying that it is going back there? No.  But if GOLD is in a Bull Market again, and this is going to be a blow off phase, I do want to own some of these beaten down ‘survivors”.  So lets take a look at AUMN for a minute.

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AUMN– At this point it is hugging the 10sma, so I did buy that first tag. This may be a ‘core’ holding, unless it drops below the 200sma.  It is not a HUGE positions, but look at the weekly…

AUMN 6-20

AUMN – I recommend that each trader does their own due diligence. This stock was 15 cents in January for a reason, when Gold was $1040.  If GOLD goes to $1350, and then$1500, and then $1700, and then above $2000/Oz, these little companies can benefit greatly. Plus, you know I like this base 🙂 It is a speculative play.

AUMN 6-20w

As well as TRX, as mentioned here recently. 

TRX WKLY 6-13

 I own this one because I have done the research and I do know what they are going through. This is Jim Sinclairs baby, and I think he will manage things well going forward.  This is a stellar base too, and looks ready to break out higher. 

TRX wkly 6-20

So that’s it for now.  More of the same, we’ll see if the markets can hold on to their gains into the close, and lets see if Gold can make a bit of a come back today too.  Many of the Miners that I have mentioned closed green yesterday.  Not by a ton, but if they close green on a day when Gold sold of $20+, what will they do on a good day for Gold?   See   BTG, SAND, MUX, CDE, AG, etc etc.  Doesn’t it seems like they slam down Gold and Silver and then buy up miners while most are too afraid to step in?

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~ALEX

CDE 6-20

116 replies
  1. Bill
    Bill says:

    So many choices my head spins. I still have BAA, which is not performing well. Thinking of selling and buying something else. Any thoughts?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      So many choices is right. I am divided between Energy stocks or Miners. Then I was looking at some Tech stocks to see if any looked set up bullishly or are they failing.

      MU looked like a break out from a base, and then a back test.

      BAA doubled and is consolidating, and hasn’t really popped lately, but it’s possibly set up to move. You could always sell it to use the funds elsewhere, and keep an eye on BAA daily. If it starts to perform, you could try to jump back in early.

      I had the same thing with TGD and GSS , when MUX and VGZ were running, so I sold GSS and added to VGZ for a quick trade, and then took it back. ( I never bought GSS again yet though).

      • Bill
        Bill says:

        Good points, I recently bought LGCY and it just isnt moving. I think Energy cycle just starting, Miners are further along. I think lower risk in Energy.

          • Bill
            Bill says:

            Good point, 3rd cycle aren’t very strong. I was thinking we might get to $60 on USOIL. What are your projections?

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Yes, I was thinking either $60, or close to it ( maybe $58).

            With Oils cycles they can last a while, some running over 50 lately, so even a 20 day peak could become left translated, and roll over, so I am hoping that we get a quick run higher and get it done before it rolls over.

            Miners daily cycles are more like 30- 35 days lately. This is the first daily cycle out of an ICL, so I was thinking a 20- 25 day run ( guessing) to the peak, and then a drop to a DCL. Today is day 18 for GDX I think, so we need a pop soon.

  2. Geurt.
    Geurt. says:

    Thanks Alex for this report, we will see where we go and close this week.
    One question I have: What is your expectation about the SM when the Britain stay in the EU? Do you think we will go down? Thanks a lot Alex!!!

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hi Geurt, Which sector are you talking about? Gold?

      My personal opinion is that GOLD has just put in an ICL, it will not top for 2 maybe 3 daily cycles. That is 2 or 3 months.

      Even if they vote to exit the EU, they will not exit THAT day or THAT Week. It would take time, so that ‘vote’ may cause an initial emotional reaction, and then it becomes overdone and things will stabilize again. Then as the ‘exit’ is put into place, a directional flow would become more evident.

      That is just my opinion on the vote, and that is only if they did vote to exit.

      • Geurt.
        Geurt. says:

        Thanks ALEX… no I’m talking about the general Stock Market (SM) and the Biotex IBB-IBB. What’s your thoughts???

      • Edward Bernhart
        Edward Bernhart says:

        Couple that with the fact that the “referendum” is not legally binding but is “advisory”. Sort of like super delegates! LOL
        (from June 14th Business Insider)

  3. CS
    CS says:

    Hi Alex, definitely agree with you about the market indecision. It looks to me like things will go sideways until after the Brexit vote. I’m still waiting for an entry point to buy LABU, yesterday wasn’t convincing to me, though I do think we are close to ending this consolidation in LABU.

  5. Bill
    Bill says:

    Alex, 1/2 cycle low in Gold, like we did in January before the big blast off? OR something more ominous?

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        I tend to doubt that we’ get a DCL so soon, but even if it was, it would be extremely right translated and that calls for a higher high on the next run up.

        • tess
          tess says:

          I’m just hoping it is and we get it over with now 🙂 with Brexit maybe forcing an early one?

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Well, it would be early to todays standards, but we did get short daily cycles in the past, and that was during the bullish runs, especially Miners. I remember a 14 day daily cycle, so I will never say never.

      • Bill
        Bill says:

        Perfect. I do read your post every morning, I don’t skim. Sometimes I think I am loosing my memory! Wait….What did I say?

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          I know, often we just read so many things it can be hard to remember where we read something too.

          Next time I’ll scroll up & just copy paste it in the comments again : )

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            So getting back to that answer, I guess that it wouldn’t surprise me to see Gold get pushed down to the 50sma quickly with Brexit this week, and then reverse higher Friday.

            I feel like if they buy it up on friday, it leaves more behind. Just a guess

  6. Crystal
    Crystal says:

    “She” has spoken. Extremely dovish. Amazing how one person can move oil faster in 20 minutes than Jiffy Lube. 🙂

  7. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I have NO IDEA what tonight’s report will discuss. There just isnt a whole lot new when Yellen is testifying for 2 days and then a Brexuit vote

  9. R Byram
    R Byram says:

    I know this is not a popular way to look at things – but gold really has not had a good shake-out since this bull began in January. I wonder how far down it will have to trend before the trip-wires of stops would triggered. It just seems that everyone is way over on one side of the boat (so to speak) looking for gold to go higher.

  11. GOLDSA
    GOLDSA says:

    Hi Alex – I have bought 2000 shares of AUMN and 3000 shares of BAA. I am not going to touch it no matter what happens. I will plan on selling it when gold crosses $ 1800 🙂

    So, currently I have decent positions in CLF & HBM (plan to hold on to them for a while and see it explode). Have small positions in LGCY, NUGT, UWTI and GUSH. LGCY and the 3X ETFs could be very volatile but plan to ride the volatility 🙂

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      GL, trying to get some AUMN here shortly. I was way too early on LGCY, she threw me off. Don’t really like her here. She has great potential but not as low risk as many of the others, imo.

  12. Crystal
    Crystal says:

    Guys, guys….put oil and gold on the back burner intil after Brexit. In the meantime I am looking at a good beer or burger stock. How does SHAK or SAM look Alex? I’m serious.. I’ve been wanting both of those for a “long” for awhile. Is this a good spot?

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      SAM, no way, its time has passed. IMHO, local smaller micro brews are the kick. If Treehouse ever goes public, watch out.

        • Bill
          Bill says:

          That’s news to me, I feel like I have been supporting that stock half my life. Let me check into it.

        • Bill
          Bill says:

          Craft Brew Alliance, Inc. brews and sells craft beers and ciders under the Kona, Widmer Brothers, Redhook, Omission, and Square Mile brand names in the United States. It operates in two segments, Beer Related Operations and Pubs Operations. The company markets its beers directly to consumers in draft, cans, and bottles at restaurants, bars, and liquor stores, as well as in cans and bottles at supermarkets, warehouse clubs, convenience stores, and drug stores. It also operates five pubs that offer dining and entertainment facilities, and sell apparel and other merchandise. The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Portland, Oregon.

          Not for me

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      If I look at SAM on a weekly 3 year chart, it is in a downtrend, and that could be a bear flag. On a 3 month daily, it is possible that it is bottoming, but I have no real sign of strength to go by ( And no cycle count for timing a low). Sorry, I cant help more.

      Today it is trying to regain the 50sma, but volume is pretty light. I guess that You could buy with a stop under recent lows. Thats a 10% loss, I dont really like that.

      SHAK could be bottoming

      • Crystal
        Crystal says:

        Ok … Just trying to think out of the box and thought making $$ off burgers and beer for the summer might be a good plan b.

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      After executing a reverse merger, little Boone, N.C.-based Appalachian Mountain Brewery (now traded under HOPS) has become the fourth publicly-traded craft beer company in the U.S., joining the aforementioned Boston Beer Co. and Craft Brew Alliance, as well as Mendocino Brewing (OTC:MENB) on the open markets.

      Last month, the ten month-old craft brewery and its shareholders acquired the defunct penny stock North Carolina Natural Energy Inc., with the equivalent of $3.5 million in shares.

      The brewery today announced it has completed its name change from North Carolina Natural Energy, Inc. (OTC:NCNE) and will begin trading on the Over-the-Counter Bulletin Board under its new, appropriate ticker symbol.

      AMB founder and CEO Sean Spiegelman told Brewbound that, despite being less than a year old (AMB launched in February, 2013), going public was the best long-term decision for the company.

      Never had this beer but HOPS might be okay if they have a big following

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      So, here is why I say TreeHouse Brewery. If they ever go public, watch out. Every day they open to a line around the building (refresh). Everyday they sell out. Awesome beer, like nothing you have ever had before.

  14. Geurt.
    Geurt. says:

    ALEX…. how looks ERF chart today, I want to buy some.
    What’s your take?
    I saw it this morning in your report, but don’t understand it clearly.
    THANKS A LOT ALLEX !!!!

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Looks good, man. Think Alex likes ERF here. Its already moved up some, but if oil moves to btw $58-$60 ERF should set new highs. I’d add on any pullbacks. Personally, I’m way overweight energy here: CWEI, OAS, WPX, BTE, USO calls. At least for next 2 weeks.

      • Geurt.
        Geurt. says:

        Thank-you-so-much for your thoughts Cason, by any pull back I think I will add some.. It’s a Canadian stock as well.
        Sleep well Cason.

  15. Cason
    Cason says:

    My first question at the open was if we should buy the dip in energy and miners, but then work whisked away my attention. For CWEI the answer was YES but I found out too late (would have added if able).
    Alex, did get my started in B2G today. Staying patient and just adding very slowly basket of diversified miners. Thanks for all of the advice there. Will add SAND and MUX as soon as I can. JNUG, NUGT doesn’t seem to be the play here, hopefully sometime soon.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hey Rob

      seriously, It depends on who you ask. Various cycle guys have different ideas on that. They have been extending in the bear markets, but in the Bull markets they were shorter.

      THAT leads me to TESS down below. Tess mentioned something about a shorter daily cycle in Precious Metals, and I am thinking about that now.

  17. Cason
    Cason says:

    Copper at 1-month high this morning, could provide boost to base metal miners – HBM, CLF, FCX etc.

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