FRY DAY
Friday, the final trading day of the week.
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As mentioned in past reports, I am expecting a bit of a pull back in the $USD and a possible POP in precious metals. Maybe the Friday jobs report will cause a reaction in this area. We may not be at the final lows for Gold and Miners ( The ICL) , but yesterday I pointed out that some Miners bottomed before Golds ICL in 2008-2009. Some Miners may hold up better than others. That will be touched on in the weekend report too. Some commodity stocks may be perking up here. Lets look at a couple of commodity charts, and then a few trade ideas for those traders out there…
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CRB – Continued higher and a little more room to run, but this is a mixture of Energy, Add, Metals, etc.
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STEEL WKLY AND DAILY – The weekly may have another leg higher using this count.
STEEL DAILY – Recovering the 50sma
X, AKS, SID, STLD, ZEUS, etc – Steel stocks may move higher.
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SID – Quite oversold and low risk with a stop below Thursdays lows. A break out above the 10sma may be in the making. After such a sustained sell off, I would expect a nice bounce. 
VALE – After a 2 week consolidation along the 200sma, this oversold stock may be ready to break out higher. Easy enough to buy and place a stop under recent lows a bit. Maybe under $3.70 or even $3.75.
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URANIUM got interesting very quickly too. We see “Pops” in the Uranium stocks, but will there be follow through? Friday may reveal that answer.
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URA – Uranium ETF. Back above the 200sma, very oversold and MACD cross.
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Uranium stocks like URRE, DNN, UEC, URG are moving together.
URRE – Popped over 20%, but dropped and closed below the 50sma. A pop above the 50and a close there would be nice.
UEC – Quite the base. Some may want this on the watch list for a break & close above the 200sma.
DNN – Support on the 200sma. This could be bought for a trade with a stop below that 200sma.
URG popped very big Thursday, and closed up over 20% too.
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For now, those are just a few areas that can be considered interesting or even actionable this Friday. The weekend report will, among other things, discuss a little bit more about the Precious Metals line up. If you are new here and you have time, you should read last weekends report and the ones released this week, just to get an idea of where I think we stand market-wise. The next weekend report will be released Sunday night or Monday morning. Have a great Friday and a great weekend!
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If you scroll through yesterdays ‘comments’, you will see where I said that I bought TGD, GSS, GPL early in the day. This was based on my report discussing the ICL dip in 2009, and how Miners bottomed first.
I also bought EGO, IAG.
These latter 2 may just be trades, it depends on how things unfold going forward.
mmm.. yummy ..bacon… and miners.. wooooshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh …
If I miss another ICL, I’m jumping off Moe’s building. You can get the .gif ready….
ohhh cason… u crack me up…. no worries…
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/313acf40d4641d497618297be017f18e978924d8c7a5fe03c9d8dea12232efe3.jpg …. UNNNNNNNNDERDOG IS HEREE ………
*note the inscription on forehead………
Here’s me missing another ICL.
I’ve said it before, I loved Underdog as a kid : )
i loved pink Floyd. lmao. “…you lock the door, and throw away the key. There’s someone in my head but it’s not me…” .
Gold futures up big this morning.
Jobs report was the worst in 5 years , I think it is perceived as making it difficult for the FED to raise rates ( And further stunt economy).
So far rather huge volumes in the Miners. Not sure, but possibly a lot of short covering along with the buying .
Volume on GSS 1/2 hr into the day is about the same as it has been for a full day for the past 3 days.
THANKS Alex…. do you still think we have an other leg down in GOLD? Is it good (save) now to buy some miners?
Thanks my dear.
$1,000,000 question. Is this the last DCL or the beginning ICL?
Very good question Bill…. wait upon the Master.
Bill…. what’s your charts saying regards GOLD.
I think this is a fake out, suck everyone in move. I can see a clear harmonic pattern in miners that usually ends with a 50% reversal. Well, NUGT, GDX up 50% from the last move down. Gold doesn’t look done dropping to me. Just obeservations. I am staying in cash until things settle down.
Thanks a lot Bill.
I really appreciated your help.
Wounderbar.
Danke
Bill some one wrote me the following response, do you understand this? Means this we go first higher then lower… or visa versa?
Since gold is in its timing band for an intermediate (weekly) cycle low this new daily cycle may also mean that gold is beginning a new weekly cycle. A weekly swing low is required to begin a new weekly cycle. Since gold printed a lower low this week, the earliest a weekly swing low can form would be next week.
Then we would like to see a break of the declining weekly trend line
for confirmation.
Geurt,
It means that on a weekly cycle basis, gold is past the number of weeks required to usually make a low point. So the expectation is that it will soon move higher. Based on a weekly count this week was the lowest week so far for gold. A swing low is a reversal and can’t happen until next week because this week is over and lower than last week. So a higher week next week could confirm a new cycle if it breaks above the down trend line.
Excellent explained Bill.
Thank you so much.
It’s an ICL. It could only be a DCL if I bought today and then it rolled over so I’d lose money.
DRUM ROLL for the answer!
Emotions say that miners are off to the races, but the brain says this is the expected bounce before dropping to the ICL?
Looks like the old fake out at the major ma’s in the weekly AUMN chart. Hopefully didn’t jinx myself here! 🙂 Happy Friday indeed.
I still think that we need to be on the lookout for the ‘pop and drop’ that Alex has been writing about for about a week or so. If this rolls over by mid-to-late next week we will gain a tremendous amount of confidence so we can go VERY heavy into a new Intermediate cycle. At the moment we are still unsure of this is a new ICL or not. Good luck to all!
Good morning Rob! I’m expecting the same thing. AUMN made it all the way down to the 200 and 250 sma before *apparently* reversing today. If you look at an AUMN chart, you’ll see that it usually tops ahead of the rest, bottoms, and bases while the rest finish bottoming. Of course not all stocks move the same way, so this could’ve been an anomally, but I do think that the fact that AUMN made it this far down might be telling that the rest will make it down as well. Not all the same, of course. Either way, surprises keep comig to the upside=bull mkt.
Hi Peter. I don’t know AUMN all that well but I will watch it. Thanks for the tip!
AUMN ended up almost a perfect 78.6% Fibo retracement from the highs. I remember talking with you about it last week after being down 60%.
Yes it did. I’m still thankful you pointed it out! I bought a nice amount at .35 and below. The potential in that thing is just insane. Not trading it though. Just sitting on that one.
AUMN is giving a lot back today.
I saw that Rob. Thats why i wrote *apparently* in my comment above. Might have jinxed the bullish weekly hammer. :-/ It’s ok though, that’s not a trade. The other miners I own are ripping today. AUY, KGC, GDXJ, and EXK. Still have AKS, CLF, VALE,& CENX, so overall, a pretty good friday!
CF, congrats on an excellent article you had on Gold-Eagle!!!…..your work is certainly recognized as top notch.
Thank You Shermo,
I actually wrote that report along with the last weekend report last Saturday ( before I left) and gave it to my partner to post in our public section. 🙂
I read that often, will have to check it out!
So I dont know if anyone noticed , but VALE, HBM, SID, AKS, X, CLF, etc etc all responded well after recent consolidations.
The big question for Gold & miners is … Did my last reports point out what many were not ready for? An early stealth ICL – making a higher low? In my opinion, 2009’s ICL was not a scary scary event that no one would dare to buy, unless they didnt dare to buy it because they expected a much deeper drop.. The April 2009 ICL was very volatile and hard to enter and hold however.
When you think about it….the majority may not have wanted to buy this dip, because we’ve been conditioned to expect a much deeper correction. MANY are waiting for a 50% pull back. I pointed out that GDX was 38% in 2009.
Now it will take time to see if this is just another final Daily cycle? Will it roll over after 8 or 10 days and really drop? Or will it be the next Higher Low, never to return? The report also pointed out that MINERS bottomed in March 2009, Gold dropped to April 2009, so Miners bottomed 1 month ahead of Gold. Individual stocks ( Miners) made higher lows in April 2009. There is no way to see that in advance, except by looking back at history. That is what we did. . Yesterday I tried to point out some Miners that acted normally in 2009, and in the weekend report I will try to do a wrap up of all of those thoughts.
Right now, we cannot tell if this was the ICL or just a DCL. It is too early, but that is one powerful Power gap with GDX up 10%!
Alex, Isn’t it much more likely to be a ICL that was just placed, with the action of the $US (-1.5%) in response to the jobs # affecting FED movement?
Hi Edward,
There is a conundrum to that . Supposedly the $USD put in an ICL, and it was very right translated, which means that it should drop to a DCL, and then make a higher high. In a normal world, Gold would then drop to a lower low, when the dollar went to a higher high.
I must say, however, if Smart money is buying, these Miners may not have a chance to dip much. Like my report showing the 38% dip in 2009. I cannot guarantee anything at this point, but I will do some research and I guarantee you that the weekend report will touch on it.
I definitely feel comfortable buying some of my miners ( That will be in the report too).
The intermediate-term has a major problem right in front of it. The Jun monthly GLD call/put (not put/call) ratio is an unimaginable 1,000,000 calls / 200,000 puts. Thus i would look for the GLD to finally meet for a one night stand lol, an empassioned pair of lovers tangled as 1, with its 200-day SMA. today was just a WAY oversold bounce shorts forced to cover. And when the time comes i would stick with the highest-leveraged gold miners.
i like good old CDE.
… ohhh myyy ….
Man, we got flat locked out of that last ICL if you didn’t get in ahead of the lows. Can’t let that happen a 2nd time. May have no choice but to chase even with DCL possibility (seems remote except for Jul Fed mtg, they might as well not even hold Jun mtg at this point and save their time). Yes, saw IAG chart above. But +36% holy crap, thats perspective.
Hmmm?
If I don’t buy, it’s an ICL and runs higher quickly. If I do buy, it’s a DCL and will drop shortly.
It’s like you are reading my mind…!
URG, UEC, DNN popped pretty nicely today too. URRE dropped down after an initial pop.
THis chart will be in your weekend report. ( Click to enlarge)
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Here I am pointing out that in the past, a GAP open didnt mean that you missed it. It would “stall’ for a day or 2 and even offer a buy in that area (Often tagging the 10sma sideways or in a gap fill).
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refresh to see the chart
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If you want to know whether we are in a real bull or not…
Go to NEM, RGLD, CDE, and ABX and More. Was this pull back so scary?
Nice. I never would have had the gall to grab in front of the Jobs #. This could have easily gone the other way, it’s a coin flip.
Just usinn’ mechanical systems with some sort of known probability, and of course my gut.
The Bollinger Band Volatily Squeeze on the 15-min chart. I mean a NICE one. Thankfully no head fakes, single, double or triple by the market makers that I blame not for manipulating due to how well the BB-VS works.
I pick and choose carefully. Lucky yes where it occurred in relation to the weekly.
I also use a 41 interval RSI. Days ago on the 15-min man i have seen that rare oversold level only a few times. And long-term trend is up. Thus direction of next unepected out of the blue gap open big was taking shape (up).
Consensus was complacent about jobs report and relatively quick formation of fed plans consensus, thus what if a surprise weakness. Look out above very short term.
Thus I correctly “handicapped” this play. True odds were way better than crowd’s assessment. You play 10 of these? You are gonna make some coin. In at $1.50, thursday close. out at $4.00 fri open.
This method and I “get along”. This is the only way I play.
{ `_`} .
Thanks for sharing. I use BB all the time and watch the squeeze but not necessarily as an independent indicator – I’ll add that to the kit bag, thanks. So you use RSI (41) – 41 period RSI on a 15-min? I haven’t tried that one before. I wouldn’t have thought of this, but man, makes sense now that you explain it. Easy to Monday morning QB, right? I was scared to do anything yesterday then this afternoon I ran through a few scenarios that would have made money regardless of which way they broke as long as something crazy happened (and yes, JNUG up 36% counts as crazy in my book). I am going to keep more of an open mind next time and less paralysis.
I think Alex is innovative. He has ideas that others don’t. Sure, I can read a chart and look at stuff and see some of it (after he explains it!), but I’d just never come up with half of these ideas and the ones that I did, I wouldn’t be brave enough to trade. I also don’t have the time. Best of luck to you next week, JS.
HMMMM? : )
Well thank you Cason.
Specific timeframes I monitor on my TradeStation:
[ (130sec) (***13min***) (65min) (daily) (weekly) ] .
I use yes a 41 interval RSI on the 13min chart to attempt to “at least get close” to DCL’s and ICL’s.
The 34 is a bit too short and the 55 a bit too long, so i threw a dart (exacto knife lol) and it hit 41.
I use 4 “zones” above and below the center which itself is a zone and surprisingly a very important one.
For example after the dec jan gold launch, the daily RSI-41? Back then a future play I queued up. Specifically the “daily RSI-41 dip to center”. The idea being a high prob ICL or DCL is only a few days to maybe only hours or even only minutes away signal . Well guess when it finally dipped into the center zone? Tuesday before jobs-report-Jun-Friday. After 4-5 months, that was close enough for me.
But a few days before that, the 13min RSI-41 descended into the “unfreakin’believable extremely oversold” zone. This was unexpected by me. Man the relentless tick after tick of let’s just say “not up” behavior. Then the RSI screamed as it hit the proverbial max brick wall. That is an over sold signal to be played. Thus my playbook. Expect a few days of marginally lower lows with the up movements lifting the 13min RSI-41 toward the center zone then either just get the freak in, or consult my price volatility analysis domain and of course external real world related events.
Well the jobs-report release time very important. Market will be paralyzed up until the nanosecs of the release then the monster will appear instantly and maybe just growl. But maybe a lot more.
But unexpectedly wed and thu price volatility analysis came into play. The BB is nothing but yet another “band” “envelope” “channel” etc. that price might magically bounce off of like the original video game pong. But after John’s construction of it in the early 1980’s maybe earlier, at some point it became clear that an unplanned but unusually captivating visual side effect was present. And to this day John, God bless him, continues to market his creation as an OB/OS tool and continues to downplay that side effect he wishes he could have kept secret due to the single, double, and now triple head fakes that the market makers have been forced to throw at The Bollinger Band Volatility “Squeeze”, not unlike casino’s blackjack card counter monitoring and bans, else get taken for some serious coin.
I developed my own volatility analysis technique that has only and only that one key characteristic of the BB-VR. The plotted prices, whether a moving avg. mathematical transformation has been performed, or a complex variance and standard deviation from that variance has been performed, visually on both one thing is clear. Price plots are coming together. My price plots come together and become 1 = singularity. This unusual price volatility contraction is the visual of something real occurring. All players are reaching a rare point where 1 price is agreed on by all. This lasts only about a day on the 15min. Then 80-90% something external snaps the crowd to their senses and the kill or be killed race where the market attempts to “discover” the next price level resumes. Thus the idea is to identify these price volatility “all are in a trance” contractions to place ya bets, using other techniques for direction. Then no waiting. Bam! if you were in hopefully right side if not then get in then you will find that your risk has been removed. A nice position.
But quickly volatility squeezes, ICL’s, are on the back burner and as Fagen notes in Dickens’ “Oliver Twist”. “…in this world, only one thing counts, in the bank, large amounts…” i am looking to bank my 2 1/2 to 1 quick reward.
{ `_`} .
HMMMM? : )
Stopped out of SPY positions early in the day, sold LABU yesterday, so pretty much down to a bit of TQQQ and CLF, X.
What an unmitigated disaster the Jobs Report was. And everything that was pretty good the last 2 months for revised down. BUT the unemployment headline dropped .2% What are we? China, with made up government data? WTF?
Worst possible case for me today, I didn’t get to read Thurs report until 930PM last night so even if I wanted to add miners ahead of the Jobs Report (which I never would), I literally, couldn’t. I was waiting for a deeper pullback, I just hate chasing and over paying (as well buying a new position to watch flip red within milliseconds). I hope some caught the move though from recent chat seem that most are light, but not necessarily out due to uncertainty, etc. Probably the ICL here just to piss me off. AGAIN.
I added & posted real time yesterday morning
Yeah, I know. Not faulting the newsletter, bro. 1) It takes 2-3 days usually for some of your new ideas to sink in. So, you start to mention that maybe it’s time to get back in to metals. That means by Sunday I’ll figure out, hey I should buy PMs!! Then it will take a few more days for me to chart and put together an actual investment plan. I’m just not that fast. 2) I just flat wasn’t available. Had a few pretty tough weeks at work recently – so the info was there and sure hope it helped the others, I just was not available to act on it.
So, I’m very frustrated with the move we had yesterday and with PMs in general. Seriously, I waited FOUR YEARS and missed it. I mean, I just want to stand on a mountain and scream. Also, as I just said with jscottrx above, a bad employment report is NOT good for the US economy. Do I want us to make money off PMs? Heck yeah!! And energy and CLF and steel? Oh hell yeah. But the economy going into the tank doesn’t help us in the long term. I think commodities can run a bit without a recession or something else – let’s walk this fine line, right?
So, why barf this up all over your site? It helps get the frustration out (this is great therapy) and 2nd, I’m still with CF – in it to win. Frustration at what happened and made-up gov’t numbers isn’t dissatisfaction with the CHARTFREAK product. Keep on keeping on. I’ll stay frosty.
what is avg time between recessions? how long has it been since most recent one ended?
hi alex, I hope you are having a great vacation, would like to go back on trust issues, can we trust the government after incorrect data numbers? were they off or are they lieing, like o,bama does everyday, we have a serious problem in the usa. yellen and the fed are just as corrupt as you pointed out , the early jump in bank stocks last week. would much appreciate your thoughts on bill gross,s comment on the stock market channel, the other day, don,t know if you heard it or not, gross claims we cannot have a capitalistic type government as we know it at 0% interest rates, you thoughts? he did not elaborate, guns and precious metals baby. I was ,as greenspan would say, kunnundrum the business I am in has had a lot of pressure as of late on rate reduction, and when I go by auto places, they are stacked with auto,s. yesterday heard on stock market channel average loan on auto,s is 72 months and $500.00 month car payment, ouch. love those charts baby, richie
the fed, yellen, wants higher rates so as to have some monetary policy ammo such as a rate to cut. i bet they raise in jun and july to get some ammo in place but after july meeting timing will be just about right for another gold leg up if there’s gonna be one. china is gonna pull a fast one again like last aug a huge quick devaluation. and if the GB sillys exit eu? not good. isolationism is never good. what is wrong with GB. geebus. and if trump is the man? GOOD. “and now for something completely different…” lmao.
I think that the May Jobs Report may have shot the Jun rate raise straight in the face. But definitely agree – if they stay near 0 and still have the bonds they purchased they have no ammo left in the tank. The last rate hike actually helped put the bottom in precious metals. I was sure hoping that we got a strong number and we could drop into the next hike and that would put the low in. Plus, honestly, bad employment numbers? That’s not good. For those of us in America, a bad economy doesn’t help me. Sure, I might have short-term trades in some countercyclicals or in metals, etc. but in general a bad economy doesn’t help us all make money over the long term. Brexit? No chance, imo, but just my opinion.
do you really think yellen and feds want higher rates? if the feds raise the rate 1% what would that do to the federal deficiet? it would go out of sight. I have always believed that the fed is lying with their claim to want higher rates, jmho. a long time ago a smart man told me , well I am getting ahead of self, we were talking about the epa, I said boy exxon and the big companies donot like epa, oh, he said, contaire, big oil loves the epa, keep the small guy out of the business, where I live there use to be 20 or so independent gas stations, now 1 that I know of. to put one setup in and pump and sniffer $100,000.00 . I would say it would probably cost $300,000.00 or so to open a station today. even Kramer, he is about as big a liberal as they come, was shell shocked by the big miss, on jobs no,s. richie
Richie’s right. The fed CANNOT, NOR WILL FOR YEARS, RAISE RATES. They are trapped. Thus the possibility truly does exist for gold to go to $10,000 over a period of time that may take only months from now or might take years. Either way i need to stop assuming pullbacks will occur just because that is the way gold has always behaved. WWII “interrupted” the deflation of the 1930’s America but nearly 100 years later it is gonna have the opportunity to run its course. But the fed is trapped. The one thing they absolutely CANNOT do is raise rates thus s&p plunges will be rescued by the fed most likely. I see them NOT attempting to mess with gold. And I see an eventual NIRP of 20%. i need to adjust my thinking and strategy ASAP. Stay tuned! ty Richie. {`_` } .”…Thus quoth the raven!, Nevermore!…”
well I always wanted to excel in math as alex does, with charts and fib retracements, but I just was never smart enough to do that, however I did enjoy reading and studying history, now 2 points I would like you to think about, then you tell me where we are headed, about 20 years ago I got into and argument with a man who had worked at a steel mill, we got into and argument over ss . he was about to collect, and he made the statement that , I will never get back all the ss I paid in, I said jim , you will get it back in a year, he got very upset, and said he would bet me that I was wrong [ at that time you had to mail a form into Baltimore, md. at ss headquarters and they would send a printout, I am old] 3 months later he said Richie I owe you a steak dinner, [I forgot to add steel mill job was one of the highest paying job at that time, everybody wanted a job there] I often ask people today the same question when we talk gov. from 1946-1950 he paid in somewhere in the neighborhood of $400.00. from 1950-1956 $600.00, doing some re. I found out ss really started going up in the early 1980,s we came off gold standard under Nixon, early 1970,s about 10 years later, gold in early 1980, $30.00@ ounce I will tell you more if you want to hear it. as marc farber says, money printers. richie
only one thing matters now. given that this fed will never again raise rates because it is trapped. caught between the proverbial Scylla and Charibdes. when real inflation does pickup, you’ve gotta ask yourself a question. do you wanna be waiting on a pullback?