Friday The 13th ( Of May )
This is my “It’s Friday and I dont usually do reports on Friday” report. Whenever Thursdays action raises questions that can’t wait until the weekend, I do a Friday report.
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SPX – This was yesterdays chart. We likely saw a DCL last Friday with the reversal at the 50sma. AS LONG AS THOSE LOWS HOLD, the DCL is in place. Even if it goes sideways for days above the dcl, like the red circle that I drew above the Jan DCL, nothing has changed.
SPX Thursday – Nothing has outwardly changed yet, but this is looking weak. Volume increased a bit, the MACD looks weak, and the hrly charts look weak. If this breaks down, that H&S measures a move down to the 200sma. Do I expect that?
NASDAQ – Honestly, this does not look all that great. Retail stocks are getting hit with each earnings report. If this falls apart, I do think that the SPX would drop to the 200sma.
IBB chart from May 11 – I mentioned before that this Broke out and failed on the break out attempt. That is when I go somewhere more productive until things improve. The IBB is oversold, but hasn’t improved. It is back inside of this base and could stay there for a while, so I will just discuss it in the weekend report.
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WTIC – Oil moved higher as expected. This should run to $50 and then we’ll see what happens there. TheMACD divergence with the new highs is improving, but worth keeping an eye on.
CRB – CRB 190 still possible as expected for quite a while? It is possible – but we are still under resistance. Let me show you something that does look bullish about the CRB…
REMINDER:
CRB WEEKLY MAY 6th – Last Fridays wkly chart was used in the weekend report. I pointed out the last drop to an ICL took 2 weeks ( Red candles) in March. It dropped to the support of the 10MA Wkly, so we could look for that this time.
CRB WKLY– We had that this week. It was a normal dip. The last time the CRB dipped into a DCL, it then went higher for 4 more weeks. The CRB could go higher for 2 or 3 more weeks ( 10-15 trading days). The CRB contains a lot more than just the metals we were trading though.
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The CRB has reversed and moved higher, but it is made up of many things. STEEL, ALUMINUM, and COPPER have not put in a reversal yet. This affects the stocks Mining those metals. I would like to see a reversal in these metals Friday. I expect a bounce in the metals stocks, but that will be a sell in my opinion.
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ALUMINUM – Support and reversal at the 200sma? Friday may tell. This may bounce and double top or fail even sooner. I will cover it in the weekend report.
AA – Back inside the March consolidation. Notice how similar AA looks to the Aluminum chart above . The selling volume got lighter and both are at the 200sma support. The charts are practically twins. I will be watching this area Friday and likely Monday .
COPPER – The last low in April was a high volume slam with an oversold Stochastics. Friday will be interesting. This DID break lows and undercut the last low. Usually the bounce from here will be weakish. The 50 got rejected at the 200 so far. I see weakness building for now. A bounce may be an exit for my HBM holding.
FCX and HBM do not look as weak as Copper. They actually have held up better and look as though a bounce could lead to new highs. This is yesterdays FCX chart. Compare the 2 charts. Both remain above their 50sma , copper certainly has not. The Metals stocks are obviously performing better than the metal, likely due to their being partly Gold Mining Companies too.
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ENERGY STOCKS – There was a mix Thursday too. Many of the ones in my report Gapped open very nicely, but sold off as the day went on. Some did not sell off.
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CWEI – Wednesdays chart.
Thursday – Up almost 9% , but hardly looks like it moved. I like the potential of this one.
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REVIW – It’s Friday and anything can happen. The markets are above the DCL and on support at the 50sma, but anything can happen. The charts really do show signs of weakness at this point. That could change with a strong push higher, but right now the charts look like they want more downside. The Commodity stocks should bounce soon, but I think it will be weak.
I still like the set up in energy stocks at this point, but they need to move higher and hold gains. I pointed out CPG, BTE, BCEI, CWEI, OAS, CPX, WPX, etc etc . I also did mention that in the later cycles stages, I look for those that have a proven track record or earnings released with favorable response. I dont look to the laggers to finally catch on, though some still could. Some of the Metal stocks AA, CENX, HBM, FCX, etc are likely to bounce and it may be a good bounce, but I expect that they are not going to be as strong on this run. We may look to exit in a week or two.
ALWAYS USE STOPS IN CASE ANY FAIL FOR SOME OTHER REASON.
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That is the way I see things, and these are some of the things that I am watching on Friday. What can you do if the markets (or a sector) are within the timing to put in a DCL, yet movement gets a little jumpy and volatile after apparently doing so? Pretty much nothing. If the lows haven’t been taken out, the battle of the Bulls and bears is normal and that set up remains valid, just breath deeply and honor your stops. If the lows are taken out and the weakness increases, something all together different may be going on. 🙁
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Have a good Friday and a great weekend!
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~ALEX
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GOLD
No comments so far? I feel like the wrestler being held up over my opponents head waiting for the body slam, and wondering what the inventory will look like once I land..
Saved by the Bell ! Premarket had looked bleak.
Good work Alex!!!! Cute heartwarming story to get all of you feeling better today. So I’m looking at my charts and stuff, as usual, yesterday night, and my 8 year old daughter curls up next to me, and asks “whatchadoin’???”. So I start explaining that I analyze all these lines and things to help me *guess* a little better where the price might go. I start explaining to her the 20 day ma, the 50 day, MACD, etc… and ask her if it wouldn’t interest her to learn some of this. To which she says, “dad, i’m only a kid. Kids are supposed to only have fun, and that doesn’t look like fun! Talk to me when i’m 10!”. :-))) TALK TO ME WHEN I’M 10!!!! I thought that was the cutest thing ever. Maybe that pops a little smile on our faces, and reminds us to not take things so seriously…. have a great friday everybody!!
From the mouths of babes!! I’m not sure if it’s fun or addiction – maybe a bit of both, but I know one thing is that I am really hopeful this bump will play out and I can exit my miners in a few weeks and take a break. Getting ready for a drive from San Fran to Canada on the coastal highway in June.
Oh man, that is a phenomenal ride!!!! I’ve always to do that one, but living in Miami, I’m about a million miles away!! That one will have to wait ’till the kids are out of the house. They can’t even handle 3 hours to Orlando! I’ve always wanted to make that trip up the west coast, but in classic style!!! ’69 Camaro convertible, all the way up to BC.
Thanks for that! I needed it. I am so sick of the color red.
Any insight on SDRL? I’ve been holding it forever – well OK a month but it seems like forever. Earnings are out next week and I don’t know if I should sit through earnings with this one or not. Any thoughts?
And I know it’s early, but I just decided that there will be no red decoration this Christmas in my home!!!! Green and some other colors, but i’ve had enough of red!!
Also, don’t know if the economy is slowing down or not, but there are 11 cars in front of me at Starbucks drive-thru!!!!
If HBM closes below that 50 sma, time to kiss it goodbye.
So far, HBM is finding support near lower boll band. If it can recover the 50 by the close, it would definately help the *bounce* scenario a lot!
How many more shares does that hedge fund have to liquidate in CLF!!!!!???? What an amazing drop.
Let’s please be done with the dump!
No kidding, I’ve kinda hit max pain here. About ready to go to cash and just deal with that. That should fire everything straight up, right?
We have to be due for a bounce, right? We’re sitting on the 38% fib support, a 4 mo trendline, and the 50w MA…
I’m all out of logic here Dave. I’m down to hoping and praying!! Problem with that is that I don’t think God likes to get involved in the financial markets!!!
If he did, my 2012-2014 would have gone much, much differently… 😛
Good news!! There may be a brief pause in the gold market soon (finally)! “Dennis Gartman: I’m becoming more bullish on gold” 🙂
Just need him bullish on copper as well! Traders on CNBC starting to like gold as well. Sell! 😛
nice CWEI Alex.. good call again
Very little to be thankful for today! Informal poll – those still invested in CLF, FCX, VALE, HBM etc etc. – still holding? Alex seems thoughtfully bullish (but clearly aware of downside risk). I am only pennies away from most of my stops now. Let it ride till they hit or take lumps now to prevent more losses mounting next week? Any thoughts? This has been absolutely abyssmal for any equity in the copper space. Just putrid.
I’m still in energy and plan to ride most of that. May harvest BCEI profits, it clearly will not be able to clear 3.8 on this round. I still really like OAS, WPX but will take at least 1/2 off this time when crude hits major resistance shortly.
I sold all in my trading account, leaving what is in my retirement account…..we’ll see what happens, figure I can take the draw down in the retirement acct a little….but can’t stand to keep losing in my trading account…
Dang Tammie, that sucks to hear. Keep your chin up! We try our hand at this to make money, right? Let this one sink in, If I ever get back the amount of money I’ve lost at this, I would be a rich man! Not exaggerating. I could’ve graduated from Harvard Law with the amount I blew away my first, and then second time. This is my third, and last. I finally got it though. Rules are THE most important part of your plan, and as soon as a rule is violated, you are out. Discipline is everything. You protect your capital ABOVE AND BEYOND ALL ELSE. Profits come second. An entry should be as precise as possible. Your exit matters, but entry is key. And learn to analyze charts for yourself, so that you have nobody to blame but yourself if something goes wrong. I’m down big time here with the rest of you, but I blame it on myself for having broken MY rules. I know I will make it back with patience and defense, but it’s still hard to deal with when you have goals, and then setbacks like this happen. Stay with it!!!
Thanks, Peter! I was doing ok until these past 2 weeks…..all in all I’m still “up”, just not as “up” as I would be if I had just not bought anything the past week and a half…:) I’m learning…doing alot better than I did in gold stocks back a few years ago (when everyone else probably lost as well!) – being at ChartFreak has been a great help – actually learning alot more than I ever did before – from Alex as well as all of you others here…:)
Hey Tammie. Having some problem here – I’m pretty sold trading in my IRA. I’m up and only risk a %. Heck, my mutual funds are certainly lagging my CF trades (at least through beginning of this week!). But I just cannot get a run going on my “trading” account. Held my CLF too long, tried BAS and EVEP for energy (pure crap!) But the account I can’t touch has OAS and WPX which are strong. Ugh ugh ugh
I’m still in, Say Hallelujah! You’ve got to believe this bull does not like to be ridden.
Only thing green is the 1/3 in miners. The remaining 2/3s in energy and commodities have been pushing my patience but things can change mighty quickly and games are being played
ALWAYS plenty to be thankful for C man!! My account is going nowehre but south, but there’s a reason why they say patience is a virtue!!!! We’ve got good health!!! And it is 2 for 1 Margaritas @ Texas Roudhouse down here ;-)!!!!! I just sold HBM because it looks like we will close below that 50 sma, so want no part of that. And BTE my entry just wasn’t right, so I’ll just keep ERX in energy.
I do have plenty to be thankful for, you are right. My account balance and recent trades are NOT among that group. But I am thankful for other items. Like the margaritas I just mixed up in the kitchen!
me & UNG are going ahead with a divorce after a fruitless marriage.
unless she rapidly changes her ways before close, could be a big gap down on monday.
but momentum is all in the wrong direction.
although… what are those upside down hammer candle thingymabobs called … and are they bullish?
la nina is here, now. and if, as it has done a few times only months after wicked el nino’s, then hot hot summer 2016 and deep freeze winter 2016-2017. very positive for nattie. but see the problem? ya gotta put on ya meteorologist’s hat. and as we all know “’tis not nice to fool (with) mother nature!” lmao.
The fundamentals for nattie are hearing up! I’m bullish Nat gas but the recent price action has just been stupid. So I haven’t gotten in bc I don’t like what I see. Why do we have too much Nat gas? Warm winter? No. Sure, that didn’t help but shale oil resulted in tons of extra gas. What is happening to shale oil? Losing rigs every week thanks to the Saudis and now we’re going to export. Gas is bullish over the next year. But that doesn’t mean rush out and buy Monday.
si si contango! lol. {`_` } .
care to elaborate JS?
i’m out for now… if it picks back up, i’ll consider re-entry.
lightened up on everything where histos are trending down.
im just about even-steven for the week, which isnt too bad considering all that bullsh!t red we’ve just had.. and the fact my speccie LINE went tits-up. (few hundred$$$ down on that one, but luckily that TPLM rocket in march was a few thousand$$$ up… which covers me for some crappy entries for a while)
UNG and me had a falling out also. we were together for a week. i have no opinion. strange times for nattie. and i had a feeling in my gut. for me personally, for whatever reason, i felt that i should distance myself from nattie. and keep it a “safe” one. for eternity. lol.
UNG is a horrid instrument. Like, SPY, GLD for example are pretty much spot on with what they track. UNG is not. Why? B/c it blows. Ok, it’s the cost of rolling contracts and the contango present in the futures market inherently. The only tool worse are VIX products.
I just got back. I can’t believe what these charts look like. I am in all that you list above and many more, and I am again bleeding red….even my gold core is bleeding today. I will probably hold….but will come back again in a half hour to see how things look. Putrid. Good gross icky word.
I had 2-3 that were green. Ok, OAS was down a dime but with the week we’re had that is an absolute victory! BCEI and WPX still look good. Energy is ok but we have to be choosey here.
Out of BTE and HBM…. if/when we get a bounce, might come back in, but as of now, these don’t inspire confidence.
8 day mini base breaking out in KTOV….with the patent from FDA yesterday I would look for an analyst upgrade soon like maybe next week. ipo lock up ends next week but only 500k shares 2 holders have 250,000 and said not selling. any selling should be pick up easy with an estimated new target by analyst expected to rise form $10 to $15. We’ll see….
FWIW, I am taking the amount of comments here today as a buy signal!!!!! Not even 40 comments at 3:20?? And I think I have at least 10 of the *almost* 40!!! Sounds like we’re close to a low. 🙂 At this rate I will be a majority owner in CLF by next week!
Hey Peter…you are padding the count….I only have 33 comments today! Glad you are apparently keeping your sense of humor. It is grim but I am holding. I have a longer term view usually. I think Edward B is more of a holder type too. But I did one thing that decided it for me. I added up all my unrealized gains and losses as of today…if I just liquidated it all…only the holding I was influenced to select because of Alex. About even. When I add the profits I have already banked…I am still AHEAD by a lot! It did not seem that way with all the red for the last 2 weeks. So, I am doing what CF’s title for todays report was…I am breathing deeply. Have a good weekend all!
I do try to put humor in everything. I am also a longer term holder, so doing my best trying to keep a positive outlook. Technically some of these stocks look absolutely horrid! But sometimes when things look their worst is when the turn is near. I still keep expecting a bounce in stocks like CLF and VALE, just because they are so oversold, but even if that fails, and we get no bounce, the future for stocks like these *looks* promising, so I just hold and/or add. The thing is that when you get a beatdown like this, it’s detrimental to be spread out beyond a comfortable amount of holdings. So I sold out of HBM today, for instance, but still hold other stocks that should benefit just the same as HBM, but I cut back on risk just in case we get more downside. Same thing with BTE. Hopefully we get some kind of relief rally in these things already!! I forgot what green looks like…
Go out and hug your cutie pie daughter and enjoy our lovely [but hot] Florida! It always helps to look at the positives!
Thank you Nancy!!! Enjoy the weekend and forget about all this for awhile!!!
My HBM held by 3 cents at the low, 7 cents at the close. Sure hope we don’t gap down Monday. 🙁
The close below the 50 sma was enough for me. Can’t see any other support underneath, except maybe weekly trendline, but not interested unless we go back above the 50. If I got faked out, so be it, but it is acting weak as heck.
Yeah, I’m with you. I’m really very sorry I bought it.
Majority owner….! hahaha! This is what we’ll all look like when you treat us to dinner….
That depends Tammie!!! I might be majority owner by next week, and broke by first week of june!!!!! :-/ You might have to treat ME to dinner!!!! :-)))
while gold is up .7% you would never know it with the miners slumping at the end of the day. It does seem as though our energy stocks have strong headwinds where fundamentals are trumping our hubris. I am specifically referring to the wave of U.S. oil and gas bankruptcies surging past 60 this week.
One of the reasons I’d rather hold ETF’s in oil/energy, instead of the individual names.
The GDX:$GOLD chart still looks sweet. Between disgustingly overbought and the dollar (finally) rising, miners should be correcting 20+% and they won’t. They just won’t. Which is killing me.
Agree on the oil. I won’t buy the stuff down near or under $1 any more. Won’t do it. Pull up CJES and BBEP and see if you really want to own these? Then check out OAS!