Friday April 22

/105 Comments/in /by

I just wanted to post this Friday report to mention a couple of things about our trades.

 

CRB – This was my Tuesday  chart of the CRB. Notice the area where it was expected to run to , and then it might hit resistance.

CRB 4-18

Today the CRB hit the 200sma and turned down.  Is the Run complete?

 

THE CRB IS A BIT TRICKY

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CRB – I did expect the 200 to pause things, because the MACD has divergence.  It wouldn’t STOP the run 2 days ago when it showed up, but it would be weak at resistance. What now- a drop to the 50sma?

CRB 4-21

CRB – My best 2 guesses are –

1.  The CRB will just pull back a little or go sideways and then pop above the 200sma for a higher high in this daily cycle, then it can fall into a dcl, maybe tagging the 200sma and 50sma as shown.  THIS IS A GUESS,  time will help me us along. 

2. DO you see the drop from MARCH TO APRIL? We could slowly do that now to the 50sma too, if the CRB is ready to drop into its DCL already after day 12. The last daily cycle was quite long with a day 25 high, so this one could be shorter.

CRB 4-21 b

I wanted to show you this because we might  see CLF, VALE , SID and a few other commodities starting to pull back a bit more if the CRB meanders or drops, but I am still Bullish longer term.  I will cover where these may pull back to in future reports, but just like Miners – they have been beaten down and may just continue to be accumulated. Miners went sideways and broke higher, so it is possible that these Metals stocks could do the same and continue to stair-step higher.

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OIL

Oil is working its way higher as expected, but it has resistance all the way up. Daily cycles can last a long time, but this  likely wont be a shot higher. It may have to ‘work’ its way higher.

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WTIC -I expect to see something like this. If so,  your energy stocks may or may not act a little volatile. If it just bursts higher, great!  I wanted to prepare you for this idea though, that it may have to fight its way higher.  I think $48 – $51 is valid. is

WTIC 4-21

USD –  Days ago I mentioned that the USD was acting like a low was in place.  We might get that “Hook” and drop, but lows shouldnt be taken out

USD 4-15

USD Thursday –  DRAGHI spoke early in the day and the dollar, which was selling off, reversed and never broke the lows.  DAY 7.  WILL a rally in the USD drop Gold?  Stay tuned and expect it more so than not, but so far GOLD has had a sideways consolidation.

USD 4-21

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This was my SILVER chart, and I expected it to still go higher to my target, as shown.

SILVER 4-20

SILVER –  Target reached. Now with the USD possibly ready to move higher,  Silver can drop to. This morning both the USD & SILVER are green so far.

SILVER 4-21

GDX WKLY- Many miners are just running higher and continue to this day to make new highs. AMAZING RUNS.  This wkly chart shows a RUN / CONSOLIDATION / RUN.  The USD has put in a low, so the 2nd run may be delayed and the mid way consolidation may extend.  Stay tuned and expect Miners to finally pull back, but so far these Miners have had every dip bought by the buy the dip crowd.

GDX 4-21

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I will share more commentary in the weekend report in these areas. Pull backs, expectations, etc.  The CRB and OIL look  like they can struggle sideways a bit and still make a higher high for their daily cycles,  but volatility could be part of your day to day trading too.  Personal choice: You may want to Lighten up if you are heavily invested and have trouble riding the ups and downs that way.  Mid day I lightened up on my HBM trade just in case it would be affected by a Gold/Miners pullback.   Energy stocks I left as is, since their daily cycles are longer and remain bullish.   Gold, Silver & Miners will be interesting to watch and learn from in the coming days.

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The weekend reports are lengthy and take a lot of time to research, gather and mark up charts,  and put together, so they are often  released Sunday night or Monday Pre Market.

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Have a great Friday and weekend, and thanks for being here!

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~ALEX

105 replies
  1. Eddy_t
    Eddy_t says:

    Sold all my miners yesterday, still holding vale, xbi and sgg calls. Sgg about to enter a 3 of 3 of 3. Good luck to everyone today and have a good weekend.

  2. Geurt.
    Geurt. says:

    Thank-you-very-much Alex for the short report, and especially the USD charts.
    This help me regards GOLD.

  3. deshy
    deshy says:

    Alex, thanks for keeping us focused!! Knew you couldn’t resist another Friday report…that’s why I saved time on yesterday’s report by just skipping your last paragraph!

  4. marinho
    marinho says:

    Alex,
    I would like for you to consider the FOMC meeting next week and the effects it has on the dollar lately. I think it will replay the same way this time also, but I am also cautious and not betting the farm on it. I just like the silver chart so much I think we may pause a little but I see $20 in the near future. Thanks for your guidance on the energy stocks, I picked some extra money on something I am not familiar with and that is always an extra bonus.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Isn’t it crazy how Silver did very little while gold rallied for 3 months then shot up all crazy with no warning!

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Thx, and I do, but I cant count on every meeting hurting the dollar. That would be 1 mtg a month, and then the minutes a week or so later. The dollar would never put in an ICL again if I thought that every FOMC mtg is doom for the dollar, right? That doesnt make sense. Yes, SILVER is a bullish chart, but silver has run up with the dollar too.

      I try to have a big picture likelihood , and then take things a step at a time, and that is usually a very successful recipe for me. With the GOLD market , it has resisted a pull back, and the sideways consolidation can be bullish. I’ll explain in the weekend report.

      The dollar is due timing wise for an ICL, not a DCL – So I have to keep that first in my mind, and What Draghi did yesterday was bullish for the dollar, so we’ll just see how things play out. IF that was an ICL in the dollar, it is too early to just roll over, but I do expect the dollar to remain weak relatively speaking, and Big Money may know that & ignore the dollar anyway, when it comes to P. Metals.

      It is only time that will tell that story accurately.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Unorthodox for E.W.ers yes 🙂 I was testing everyone, you pass ! – lol (J/K)

      Usually I put the ‘A’ at the starting point bottom, ‘B’ at the peak, ‘C’ at the next dip, ‘D’ at the final top.

      I was just labeling an A-B-C move that way for visual clarity

    • Maria
      Maria says:

      how sweet of you to mention my name.. ;o) chaCHINNNG ..giggle
      **chartfreak doesn’t scare me ………………………………………………….. ;o)

  6. Cason
    Cason says:

    Alex, just to be clear, if we keep a longer-term perspective likely ok to keep a 1/2 on CLF and VALE? Or would we be safer to sell and just wait for the next entry? Right now, I’m mostly holding my energy and not really stalking too many new entries.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      It does depend on time frame. If you are saying a “Core” holding…yes. If you can take draw down in bumpy markets and at times a 1 month corrections, yes. I think CLF will be $20 in the future

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        Nice! I am trading in 2 accounts, 1 with a longer-term bent. So, I still have cash avail and am up like 30% even after Thurs-Fri so no rush. Of course, you never want to see it all evaporate but I’ve over traded before and then get locked out of next run higher.

  7. Cason
    Cason says:

    Anybody have thoughts on Gold chart from yesterday? Popped up overnight in Asia training – out of the consolidation on Thurs chart then dropped back into the range shedding $20 in a couple of minutes. And miners still surged. Freaky!

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      OAS and BAS, too!! Guys if you want to ride energy but you don’t want to take the sea sickness pills you need with LGCY, REXX, EXXI, etc then OAS is your ticket. Great recommendation, Alex. When the Doha deal didn’t go down I just bought more. The answer was already in the charts!

      • Bill
        Bill says:

        I’ve been looking at companies in the sector that are strong fundamentally. Tough to find. I didn’t check these out but some articles list EOG and SU as prospects. It appears RIG and WG have good balance sheets. PACD has something wrong. It should have gone much higher by now.

          • Maria
            Maria says:

            LGCY & BCEI… been awesome trades..
            DNR.. omg..still grinding–good lord-energizer bunny
            BAS – nice quickie trade from yest… sweet
            *IHeartQuickies… ;o)

          • jscottrx
            jscottrx says:

            SWN was an Arkansas based mid to down stream ngas company. which they still are. but 1989’ish they formed their E&P exploration and production branch here in Houston near me in the uptown area. then late 1990’s moved their hdqr’s down here but far north Houston near the international airport. thus they were ready to rock and roll when the shale ngas revolution got going 2005’ish. And the rest is history. They were in such good financial shape they “bailed out” OK based CHK in dec 2014 by buying CHK’s marsailles and Utica properties for $5bil cash enabling CHK to meet their huge debt obligations for years to come. {`_` } .

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        I have had many that have just been stable steady rides, and I think one of the best is SWN (which just had earnings). ERF, CPG, CPE, BTE , etc were steady

        BUT – I must say, the LGCY added 5days ago near the 50sma are up almost 100% : )

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      I want to add LGCY at some point, bad. I was really looking over the chart last night and it was sweet. But not chasing that today.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Dave – on a wkly chart that looks like it wants to run to a minimum of $5 once it breaks from the base.

      I know we talked about this base earlier in the week, so you probably got in at a perfect entry.

      • Dave
        Dave says:

        Yep. $5+ looks reasonable if we can get out of this channel. Looks like the $2.85 resistance is putting up quite a fight today… I like the volume today, but really want to see some follow through.
        Either way, I can’t complain. I built a decent position over the past two weeks, and the run up over the past few days has treated me kindly.

        BAS is looking pretty sweet today also!

  11. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    There is a LOT that could be said about NSU. On a small scale it is breaking out with the earnings release yesterday.
    Larger scale, it could be considered very bullish. I’ll throw it in the weekend report

  12. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Bought HK today – and added to BCEI on the dip yesterday ( Hardest dip to ever buy )

    Below ids a chart that I drew up when BCEI dipped down to the red yesterday. You have to break it down to another level ( 60 minute, 30 minute, 15 minute, etc). The chart said it was low risk with a reversal candle at the gap or break out above the down trend line

  13. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    LGCY up 40% today alone. WOO HOO! That chart has neeb a killer. That HUGE inverse H&S posted in the report yesterday or the day before. Or pull up a 1 yr chart.

    • GOLDSA
      GOLDSA says:

      Hi Alex – Thank youuuuuuu… I held fairly big position that i bought at 1.24 after your recommendation…..Now trying to figure out if I should sell half and rride the rest… Please let me know your best estimate on it can break 3. ??? Again thank you very very much !!!!

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        Bcuz I cant know for sure, I’d say sell some if you want to lock in some money, but my GUT says that LGCY is a very legitimate break out with huge volume and will be higher sooner or maybe later. Things to consider…

        It is breaking from its base and could just keep running.
        It is breaking from a base and could turn down and “test” that break out.
        Breaking from a base, it could be a false break out and profit takers could start locking in gains.

        Also – It has earnings MAY 4 Could make or break this thing. Will it run until May 4th and drop on earnings?
        Will it break out, back test by earnings and Fly after earnings?

        This is how my mind thinks, and you have to weigh all these things and decide when you want to lock in $$.

        By the way, EXCELLENT TRADE $1.24 to now! ;- )

        • GOLDSA
          GOLDSA says:

          Thank you very much, Alex !!! This was fantastic advise. I will hold some and sell the rest !! Thanks again

        • SonOfGud
          SonOfGud says:

          BCEI fell 20% on that false b/o.. now looking to come back up
          hopefully LGCY will pull a similar trick, allow to get back in cheaper

        • GOLDSA
          GOLDSA says:

          Thank you, my friend. I hope you made some money on Miners and energy during this run up. Lots to catch on. I am waiting for dips in miners to get back in. Cant wait to buy the dip in miners. I hope we get one

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            I pretty much missed miners. 🙁

            BUT, I realized I needed to listen on commodities, etc. So I made some bank on CLF, VALE, and am doing well in energy, and still holding. Thank you for well wishes. Looking forward to buying the dip.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hey Moe,

      It depends on what long term is? If you are going to hold for 2 yrs, VGZ is excellent if the Gold Bear is done. If long term to you is a couple of weeks? VGZ just completed an A-B-C-D price target and is due to pullback , possibly to 60 – 65 cents.

      WG will depend on earnings and company specifics as OIL recovers. It looks like it wants to run to $5, but that may take some time.

  16. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    GOLD DROPPED $17 , yet I still have my bullish set ups in BAA, NSU, and HBM. TGD has (so far) only dropped to the 10sma.

    Miners trying to remain bullish with Golds consolidation.

    • LeChiffre
      LeChiffre says:

      Just consolidation. They are amassing shorts for a grandiose short squeeze. Added to my SLV position with calls and via USLV on morning dips. Added to my NGD position. Bot CLF on weakness. (made good $ earlier in the month)

    • Geurt.
      Geurt. says:

      Alex… Hi…. would you please let us know when the correction could be over.
      Or…. when to buy some good setups stocks?
      Thanks Alex.
      B.T.W. Sorry to bother you with this.
      Oh my oh my…. I still own DUST from two months ago.
      Would there be any change to get the best out of it? (70% down)
      Woww… I need to see a doctor ALEX.
      Probably you ??????

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        Yes sir – That is the plan , my friend. This whole run up has been more breathtaking than I even thought that it would. Not long term, I did expect these prices longer term, but just that it happened so quickly & with Gold going sideways for 2 months so far. Wow.

        Now DUST – We should get a drop into an ICL/ DCL in Miners and Dust should bounce, but I am not recommending anyone buy it. Miners have been holding gains and that has to be respected.

        Dust from 2 months ago – you may not get break even. These 3x ETFS are really bad for buy & hold against a strong trend like Gold &Miners have had up. . The good news is that You may get your money back on the next run higher in Miners, Energy , or commodities though.

        I would have sold it and jumped into an energy stock if I knew this situation a week ago. Right now I cant tell if Miners will drop enough that DUST will double or not ( It could though). Such a tough call on that one. I cant even doctor that one up.

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        Hey Guert, look I’ve been there before (prior to joining CF!) – I think we may be starting to drop into an ICL, so you may be able to add to DUST for cheap. 2 things – 1) you can still have a stop on your 2nd position and manage that separately, 2) when CF identifies the ICL get out of all. Even if your 40% down just sell and go long. Holding a leveraged bag doesn’t pay, trust me. Just trying to share experience, hope this helps.

        • Geurt.
          Geurt. says:

          Thank-you soooo much Cason for your encouragement and help.
          Yes… I have to learn still a lot Cason. If you see an opportunity to get out please warn me Cason.
          Again…. many Thanks Cason.

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            Guert, will do. I post a lot at night due to my work schedule so may be after a particular day’s close. For now, I wouldn’t expect a new high in GDX/J and a new low in DUST. If that does happens, I would probably want to let go any fresh longs. Alex will likely be out with some fresh thoughts here shortly.

  17. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    If you own a basket of Pharma or Energy , you may want to read this

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/auditor-warnings-on-large-company-solvency-reach-highest-level-since-crisis-2016-04-13?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

    They are talking about possible insolvency in a year or two ( Conditions in the oil market , higher price, etc, may help over that amount of time. Some energy companies may survive the situation as things improve ).

    3 pharma companies are included, (included MNKD) – they may have no way out

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Yeah, I just saw that yesterday (but forgot to post). There it is – I knew when we got to a bull one of the first signs would be those two finally having to eat the split!

      • Peter Castillo
        Peter Castillo says:

        And usually that day of the split, you can’t trade in/out. At least that’s what’s happenned to me with 3x etf splits. Wouldn’t be surprised to see miners keep going higher and have a volatile couple of days around that date. And ON TOP OF THAT..options expiration week.

  21. Peter Castillo
    Peter Castillo says:

    Happy friday peeps!! A lot of you might have had a better week than me, and that’s awesome! Go enjoy some of that $$$. I say it every friday, THANK YOU ALEX for all your hard work!! It is great to be part of this community!! To all of you, have a GREAT weekend. Blessings to all!!

    Ps: there was a BIG bet in options today. BCEI leaps. To the tune of about 6k!! Someone is betting that stock will be a lot higher in a few months. 🙂

    • Geurt.
      Geurt. says:

      Peter…. thank-you for you inspiring words. You wrote about Alex in the right way.
      He works incredible hard, if it’s his own money.
      THANKS ALL, and…. have a blessed weekend.

      • Peter Castillo
        Peter Castillo says:

        Absolutely Geurt. Trading and investing are tough enough on their own. Being able to put together something like ChartFreak every day is another thing entirely!! And yes we are all blessed. Anybody that has a few bucks to throw around in the market is doing better than most. I raise a Stella Artois to you! Cheers!

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