Shattered Dreams?

Day 1 of 2016 was actually what we have been  expecting.  The question is , will there be follow through?

On Dec 30th , I showed this chart to point out that I had expected a drop in the markets.  Look how rapidly the CPCE dropped  ( bearish). After yesterdays drop in the markets, the CPCE currently reads .80  – so that can be close enough for a bounce, but the CPCE  also could move higher as seen on this chart. That means further downside is also possible today. Lets look at more charts…

SPX – Yesterdays drop did rebound a bit near support, so we may bounce, but this can keep selling off.

Overall this looks weak…

NASDAQ –  This looks weak.

IWM From yesterday –

NOW – almost at a support area

WTIC –  Oil attempted to break higher  ( yes, I read the news) . This is rather neutral, but it continues to improve.  Among other things, we see the MACD is still rising.

NATGAS –  This is still a Bullish set up.

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GOLD tried to break out, but with the dollar acting strongly, it may be a while.  POSSIBLY,  The dollar will double top over 100,   and then drop, allowing Gold to break from its triangle. That is just an educated guess/ possibility.

GOLD – This also attempted to break out higher .  If at first you dont succeed, try try again?

GDX – The set up is leaning toward more bullish and preparing for a run higher than bearish.  A close above the 50 sma is always promising.

 SO overall the Markets look bearish, but they likely will have some bounces along the way.  Some of the former champions looked weak, and some of the former Tech Dogs looked strong, so it paints a mixed picture . I will show you what I mean.

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AMZN –  A great run, but this now looks to be breaking down / correcting.  This may bounce and tag the trend line, but I dont think it looks strong enough to recover  (yet).  We’ll see.

Below : Some of the weakest stocks recently popped and closed green on that big sell off, so thats where the picture is confusing.

DDD  –  On a big sell off, its up 13%, bullish engulfing.

And some of my recent stock picks are still strong,  and reversed nicely Monday too .

VUZI was breaking out and at $6.16 – November 19

VUZI –  It continued to climb higher.  Monday in the sell off, reversed at $7.11 –  closed at $7.81

GDDY – Cup & handle pointed out Dec 4th

GDDY – Broke out & back tested

GDDY – Remains in that area,  not damaged in the sell off. Held at the 50sma.

  The markets give me a mixed picture,  with some stocks looking life they want to run higher, other look to be breaking down.  I would be really cautious until there is clarity.  I see overall weakness continuing the way things look right here.   Energy stocks are mixed.  Some look to be setting up nicely, others need a little more work.  I like the set up for Miners.  I think many look like they want to run higher.   I think tomorrow, instead of a market wrap up,  I will focus on finding good looking set ups for trading.  Depending on how things go today, we will know how cautious to be with any short term trades.   Again, I like the set up in many miners,  they are fairly low risk. IAG, EGO, SA, NG, AUY , etc seem to be consolidating and preparing for higher prices.  IAG broke nicely yesterday , but was contained by the 50sma.  That may not last for long. 

Thanks for your patience with the delayed release today. I am away from my desk.

~ALEX

 Sidenote:  Gun companies have been bullishly trending higher over time. Sales are apparently good with the threat of legislation. Look at a chart of SWHC .  It broke out strongly recently.  IT may be a leader, indicating that RGR is about to follow  with a break out of its own soon.  (  Days or weeks from now) . This set up looks bullish.