Bouncing Higher
Miners are moving higher as expected. Granted, they aren’t exactly acting like the above picture, but lets look at some charts and see where some opportunities may be.
EGO – After basing in a tight inverse H&S type base, EGO is just breaking out above the 50sma now.
I think these laggers still have further upside. I mentioned yesterday that ABX looked great yesterday, but GG and NEM were holding GDX back a bit. All 3 look good today. Comforting to see Miners want to continue in the move higher.
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ABX – This initial price target would be around$10+ with follow through. That helps the GDX.
GG struggled yesterday, looks good today.
Some Miners have already put in great runs higher like HMY, DRD, maybe MUX, etc. HMY could bullflag here like NATGAS, so I wouldnt be jumping in those. Those gains may be done for now. One could rotate out of a high flyer and even look for an entry on one just breaking higher now. I will give examples.
I do look for some laggers that may play catch up.
AUY & EGO are lagging, so I added today , I think it could play catch up.
KGC – Looks to be breaking out here too, moving over its 50sma.
EGO – I think this could get going and still move higher by 20% like it did in Oct. It is encouraging that GOLD & SILVER crashed to new lows, and these made higher lows.
For the sake of time, thats all I have for now, but there are more like it. I am trying to answer the question , ” You’ve been Bullish on Miners for weeks, did I miss the move?” You may have missed the move on some leaders like SA, RIC, HMY, DRD, etc, if you didnt take a position. SA repeatedly tagged that 50sma and I pointed that out as a buy. Others are just breaking out above their 50sma now, and offer rather low risk entry here. It is likely that they will hold above the 50 and keep moving higher. They may be just trades, a chance to grab 10%, maybe 20%. Look for similar set ups to the above ones and take your positions. ( I bought the lagging AUY & EGO as they moved above the 50sma). .
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~ALEX
Please excuse any typos, I am speed typing 🙂
Silver is pushing on the 50sma, and the volume looks good. It will likely break out soon. I dont have a stockcharts updated chart. Below is a chart of silver real time .
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You are right on with sept.
thanks on silver observation..
Answer to GOLDSA from the last comments section
Its hard to know for sure, but I would assume higher. We could be doing what we did on the left side of the chart. Refresh for a chart.
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Thank you so much CF. That helps. Your posts are always very very helpful. Although I have not commented in the past, I have hugely benefited form your charts and perspective. Hope your family is doing well !
Thank You very much, I appreciate that. And my family is getting better ( if you mean my mothers health). Thanks!
Yes, I meant your mother. I know you were at the hospital. Glad to hear. Cheers !
NATGAS seems to be breaking out from the recent bull flag.
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If we are beginning the next leg higher – looking at UNG or UGAZ, they could be low risk entries too.
Alex, think we can jump in here? I have been watching and waiting for 50 day (2.20 as of today), but man had took off after handily beating inventory report today. Maybe start small and room to add if she drops next week? Gas doesn’t follow currency markets much at all so great to own during all of this yuan hub-bub.
nice mini pullback in GDX/J .. time to get onboard or top-up?
Not to be a party pooper, but we are extended after these last 2 days. Be careful, add stops, Refresh.
I like our chance at 200-day on gold eventually, but yes 1-2 days pullback would not surprise anyone here. But probably a chance to add/start new position versus run away.
This may be a very good buying opportunity with NUGT down $2.74 premarket. Gold dropping. It maybe a down day and a good chance to get a position. It may turn right after open and move higher. I think we see 1130-1160 in gold before a final turn. I’m using DUST as an indicator, I see it goign to $11.xx that’s the time to bail.
party pooper… giggle
u said it…not me.
nugts lookn mighty tastey….
Hope u got some at $27
close enuf
😉
Looks like some pullback today likely in PM market. I was away after 1030AM yesterday; had a pre-set limit on my GDX take me out of the trade at a profit, good timing on that one.
Jobs at 0830 today. I did add market shorts yesterday on the AM bounce, not bet the farm short, more hedging since I came into Jan poorly positioned. Closed SPY puts yesterday, remain in SPXU, will close with solid bounce, will have to see what we get today!
Likely won’t add back PMs on a Fri, but I’d keep stalking entries and grab Alex’s mentioned laggards on Mon. Might be a great plan, GL all.
When OIL stops dropping, we are going to get some awesome deals on energy stocks.
WHEN being the key word!!! Wish I knew the answer to that! Even on my one hour charts, still resolutely in a downtrend but looking at the bigger picture we are certainly in the right kind of area to potentially make a potentially major low. But personally I’m content to just continue waiting and watching for now. But I would guess an awful lot of shorts out there now so at some point I’d guess we’ll get ‘the mother of all’ short covering rallies if nothing else!
🙂
I thought you were on holiday!! 😉
i am :o)
my hotel does have wifi … albeit spotty.
in any miners…?
I have a number of legacy holdings from the last major bull run (ouch!!). Wish I’d sold them all in 2011 instead of just half!!. Amongst those I have MUX which I think is one of your favorites and keep reading very positive stuff about them. 🙂 I also have a number of PM mining ETF’s and also built up a fairly meaningful physical bullion position near the lows in 2015 as a long term core position. Also picked up a few TAHO yesterday (not the best timing!) but I’ll gradually add more position as I’m more convinced a MAJOR low is in place. I’m looking at these for longer term trades/investment positions rather than quick ‘hit and runs’, which is not really my style. I tend to trade the indices for that kind of shorter term action. Enjoy your holiday and don;t spend all of it on your laptop!! 😉
yes daddy … actually about to head to the pool/spa as we speak.
mux…yes..i have a sweet spot for – was the very first miner I traded back in the day–and did so well with – beginners luck ..perhaps? #ILuvRob #sentimentalFool (yeah, I knowwwww … “fool being the operating word in that sentence.”..)
Peace
Enjoy the pool/spa. If it’s not indoors I hope it’s a lot warmer than here right now!! 😉 Have fun. 😉
Ugghhhh…sigh….
BUMMER:
My friend would say ” Can I get a REFUND for 1 day, Or at least comp me a Dinner? I would have stayed somewhere else if I knew that the fitness center was down. Then I’ll stop posting this online and give your hotel 4 stars ” : )
And she’d get it.
I think Alex has mentioned this a few times but there are some bullish divergences building on both weekly and daily charts of WTI. But still need price to respond bullishly. Personally, looking at the daily chart I wouldn’t even consider WTI until at least one daily close above the 10 day ema. And even then the last two attempts at a rally were smacked back down by the 22 day ema. So as I say, just watching for now.
I am watching some that are already completely free!!
Gotta be a careful, I’m convinced half of these small guys just aren’t going to make it. You won’t be able to find the ticker GDP in a year, trust me.
I think you make a very valid point Cason and it will be like walking through a mine field. I’ll be concentrating most of my efforst on trying to play the oil price itself by various means. It would be gutting to see the oil price take off and be holding an oil stock or two that implodes!
Agreed, I like UWTI and GUSH myself.
Thanks Bill. I’ll take a look at those.
Those are great %-Movers, but based on what you have said in the past, those not for you Chris.
You know me well Alex!! Lol When I checked them out I spotted they were x3 leverage. A little rich for my blood! But I have a few other options so not a problem. 🙂
I never knew about GUSH until you mentioned it Bill. The NUGT of OIL & GAS 🙂
And dont forget GASL
Exactly. Can you imagine how frustrating if oil recovers and you pick the one stock that doesn’t. Ugh. The rig count drop was pretty nice but until something changes – consumption rises suddenly, US production falls faster than expected, or OPEC stops going nuts on the rigs, nothing will really change fundamentally. If something does happen while also way oversold and shorts this high? It would be an absolute explosion.
Can you find SD now?
Only on the pink sheets! http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/01/08/2016/sandridge-and-magnum-hunter-when-energy-names-go-bust
GDP has about 10 months left to go up 500% or they will also be de-listed from NYSE.
I’ll watch the charts but U.S. firms seem to be hedged at about $50 – won’t be able to get above that (sure it could always poke higher) without a fundamental change. We may see that later this year, though.
ALEX,
I don’t know if you are around, but what do you think of FCX and copper in general, it seems that has been repeatedly cut in half in the past year. Do you think it is company specific or maybe a sign of worldwide slowdown?
thank you
Sorry, I wasnt around.
Probably both. Inflation in commodities may change it, but commodities have been deflating in price .
No deflate gate jokes please , I live in New England : )
Some of the recent high flyers: HMY, MGN, LSG down quite a bit today. Good time to pick some up?
Also MUX
Just bought some MUX! $1.085………
Look at MUX on a 5 year weekly. ( Or LSG , RIC, etc). Longer term they seem to have their lows in.
I’m all about MUX – would love to add to my holdings next week.
First markets looked great at open then gave it up and it look bleak then recovered. Then rolled over. I almost covered my short/hedges 2 or 3 times. Seems indecisive now so I have decided to do absolutely nothing!
Boy, that was a crap close for the stock indexes. Glad that I paused and ended up holding my shorts. Monday opening is really going to be interesting. Added GDX calls at the close. Sold yesterday, rolled out and added back at the close. I really liked the bounce off the early afternoon lows and gold clawed back a bit too. Silver really sucked though.
I think the most bullish future case for the S&P short term would be a gap lower to support on Monday followed by a rally. If we open lower into further oversold territory, I might recommend starting to close out open short positions, if they are short-term. Support at 1900 then 1870. We may bounce now for a few days before testing the August lows. The lows on a closing basis are only 50 points away so seems unlikely to not at least test that. Spt annotated on first chart. Also see that stoch is back already in the Aug lows area. Stocks above 50-day SMA is 2nd chart, showing that there is still room to the downside.
I’d be ready to take short profits but still guarded before going long.
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