Remain Calm
Have a plan, and stick to it. If something moves rapidly in the wrong direction, don’t get upset and don’t panic. Remain as calm as possible, take action if necessary. These are my rules for walking the Serengeti and Trading. 🙂
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GOLD BOTTOMS –
Lately Golds lows have been hard for some to hold. “Have a plan and stick to it. If something moves rapidly in the wrong direction, don’t get upset and don’t panic….”
More on precious metals later
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SPX – It will be interesting to see where we are on Dec 15th. This could break down or form a triangle here.
USD – Bear flag?
$CRB WKLY– This wedge can be drawn 2 different ways. If you have been here with me for a while, then you know that a break out from these falling wedges can be quite bullish, so its just a matter of time before this turns bullish. This shows more room to the apex is possible.
$CRB DAILY – This looks like the CRB could drop further, but it doesnt have to, the bottom like was back tested from a prior break out ( The CRB and OIL are tied together).
WTIC WKLY –
WTIC – On Nov 13, oil had a ‘failed’ cycle and so this was what was expected of OIL
WTIC – And I have pointed out that the 20 sma is consistently holding it back. I have $35.16 as the next possible target, but those can get extended.
$GOLD – The low is $1045.40. A swing low is in place. A close below $1065 is unlikely to me.
GOLD NOV 2014 lows – 1 day burst, then 4 days dead. These are normal market moves, I could give you example after example. (See PEIX now)
If the lows aren’t broken, it isn’t broken. Notice how scary Nov 30 & DEC 1 were. In a BULL MARKET, buying the ICL is rewarding, in bear market rallies , it can be very trying. Like I’ve said before, some may want to wait for a 2nd daily cycle, since you’ll be more confident that the lows are in. ( I do believe they are in at this point).
Silver –
GDX – In a channel so far. We could drop a little below $14 and be O.K.
I wanted to take a look back at The ICL in Sept 11, because it too was tricky. From Sept 11 to Sept 30 we got a pop and a dip – a very short daily cycle. It then made a higher low and took off higher. Since Sept 11, Miners have been bullish. SO far things look fine to me, but nothing says that GDX cant drop into an early Daily cycle low, since it is on day 12. If we break & close below $13.55, we could be dropping into an early dcl. Then we’d look for a higher low. I actually anticipate that GDX will make a higher high before dipping into a daily cycle low (DCL), since it has been Bullish during Golds sell off.
~ALEX
CAL,
I just read your comment. That sounds like a good plan and a good way of thinking about it. That is the buy the dips approach and many say they’ll do it, but just cant. I hope that trade works out well for you. (Us)
Thanks, Alex – hopefully we’ll both be happy in another month or so (or sooner)
Do you ever trade NUGT?
I never have as I think that miners are already levered to PM enough. However, I’m considering putting a VERY small amount of “set-it-and-forget-it” money in NUGT. Although if it leaks a lot of value (similar to the worst offender: UNG), then it’s definitely not a year-long trade but a day-trade vehicle only.
I have traded with it, but only at times of certainty within 1st or 2nd daily cycle only. Even then, it is tough at the lows, but you often see huge gains in the 3x etfs into the spike tops of a daily cycle.
Also the inverse 3xetfs spike much higher into the spike lows of a dcl, like DUST.
See DGAZ and DWTI now for example. (DGAZ $5 – $20….wow).
I cannot recommend them here, because some inexperienced traders have lost HUGE amts of money even just trying to trade them. Often with big swings , some can get panicky- jumping in at tops and out at lows over & over again…losing 10-20% each day. I would have a hard time sleeping knowing I recommended that knife.
Thanks for sharing that information and your experience, Alex. I’ll keep pondering on it, but likely should stick to GDX/J for the long-term stuff.
After all, someone wise once said that 3x leverage offers 3x emotions!
lol- Maybe he knew from experience ( I know you mean me).
I’ve been SO MUCH calmer now that I don’t touch 3x funds at all. I can just hold through bottoms if they take longer than “expected” to materialize, which is like almost every time.
yes.. ditto .. and can u even imagine 3x my ‘energy’?
whewww … (me wiping the sweat from my brow) ;o)
I’ve been completely knocked out of energy.. gave back a large chunk of profit from the last gold ICL run. Not going near it now. Bad news, geopolitical things, and slowing economies. IDK. Good luck though if you’re in it
presume you’re talkin bout your ‘hyperactive constitution’, and not UNG or UWTI etfs?
on that topic, i come bearing gifs for you Maria…
whooo meeee??? butt .. butt …
You see what she did there S.O.G.?
But only has one ‘t’ in it…unless she is name calling.
update
lol …………………
😀
Hey – This is fun, thx S.O.G. (refresh)
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Better than watching the paint dry today. Gotta run, have a good night all!
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OMG she’s growing exponentially
i hope you didnt hurt yourself creating that chartreak… it crashed my monitor…
;o) and u just shhhh CF
True JT –
And at times, GDX wont break the lows on a dip back down, and while it goes sideways at the lows, NUGT or JNUG do lose more & break the lows ( and stop one out).
I’m not saying nobody should ever use them, but they are 3x dangerous and many feel the movement in miners alone is enough of a ride 🙂
I’m wondering if breaking that $40 level yesterday in oil didn’t start the bloodbath phase of oil’s intermediate decline. If so then it is on day 2 and they typically last 5-7 days before the ICL is complete.
Kind of hard to picture a 5 – 7 day bloodbath with OIL already outside the Bollinger bands, but I guess anything can happen in panic markets.
I see $35 as possible, which could be a shake out and then a move higher.
A 60m chart of Euro and Crude show them tick for tick. Until last couple of days. Unlikely crude unaffected by Euro rise.
hmm EPD…PAA
Oil could put in a shake out low here, but I’m not sure if it’d be an ICL or just another weak Daily Cycle.
We seem to have replaced most of the good discussion and charts with funny gifs and Maria joked. I haven’t seen a harmonica in over a week and a box in at least two.
I took a shot at larger EW waves on S&P and posted last night in yesterday’s comments. Would be cool if one of you experts take a look.
If you were watching this market real time, you’ d see how slow of a day it was. Things sold down and just sat there, etc.
Slow day = Gifs 🙂
Yeah that does seem weird now that I think about it. You would think that the ICL in oil would occur roughly in conjunction with an ICL in stocks, and that isn’t due until January.
Maybe another daily cycle. Oil just reversed and went green. If it sticks, it may lead to another short daily cycle that rolls over into an ICL.
I just want to announce this before the end of the day.
GDX had roughly 25 million at 3 P.M. Eastern time ( with 1 hr left in the trading day).
The way that they add volume at the end of the day, I wouldn’t be surprised if it has over 40 million by the end. I have seen the volume almost double from 3 p.m. to the end of the day-, most of it comes in the last minutes.
It is ridiculous.
ALEX……. is this an good sign for the bulls GDX has more then 45 million???
Thanks Alex.
It is less than yesterday , so that is good. I was just pointing out how much they add at the end of the day.
End of the day is almost 60 million, but they had 15 million 1 hr before the close.
That is ridiculous.
I have seen the same everyday volume spikes in the last few minutes, don’t understand this??
USO/WTI Crude may catch a bid soon? Kind of all over the place today. API reported stock decline for once today after hell. The move down was pretty excessive last few days. I was away all day, not sure how my stop didn’t trigger, looks like we’ll roll into tomorrow (stop was fairly tight and deep in the money).