New Trade Ideas

Friday   November 20, 2015

Yesterdays report was written with anticipation of a move higher in Precious Metals and I pointed out pretty clearly what we are looking for, so I wasn’t planning on doing a Friday report. There was a big drop in NATGAS,  so let me start with that and then I will throw out some trade ideas or possible future trade set ups that I have been watching.

NATGAS REVIEW:

Nov 13:  I pointed out that NATGAS needed to break above the 20sma, and it did. 

Then on Wednesday, I noticed that on a weekly chart,  NATGAS needed improvement Thursday and Friday.

Thursday NATGAS was shot down below the 50sma.  On a weekly this is not going to look good in my opinion, and cycle wise there is time to drop into the dcl as a left translated daily cycle.   I think NATGAS is in danger of breaking to new lows.  Take a look at the chart od DGAZ after yesterday…it looks ready to go parabolic.

GOLD REVIEW –

We put in the anticipated swing low.  This still may have been an ICL,  we need time to see how it plays out going forward.  It was steep, sentiment was bearish , and I pointed out that …

Timing has been roughly every 4 months from  ICL to ICL.  I actually pointed out Mid November in Early Nov.  We get to see the C.O.T. reports tonight and they likely continued to improve.

GDX – Swing low is in place,  Still oversold. I pointed out the stochastics as a basic way to buy & sell.   Many miners look like good buys at this point, but we keep in mind that Miners can rise and drop quickly. Notice each bottom in the chart below. The Sept 11 “Shake out” lows went higher for 4 or 5 days and then dropped back to the lows. The October rise was what I labelled a 2nd daily cycle.  That was where nice gains were made.

Quite a few  of the Miners have bullish set ups and are acting correctly.  I pointed out some set ups in yesterdays report with IAG, EGO, SA, etc .  They all experienced follow through. 

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  This was SA  –  I had been pointing it out as a Miner that was holding up very nicely with the strong selling in Gold and Silver. I love the strength of this stock.

AG  –  A silver stock that put its lows in LAST WEEK.  Silver was selling off this week, but First Majestic resisted the selling. Even though I am cautious,  this set up alone is bullish.  A break above the 50sma also breaks the wedge and we get a MACD cross. Oversold,  I personally think AG is a buy with a stop below yesterday.

For the sake of releasing this report closer to 8:30 a.m. ,  I am going to release it now.  I will also add several more charts over the next hour with trade set ups  ( a Miner and some Tech stocks).  I will NOT be able to send out another email alert for this addition when I am done, so please check back   ( or refresh) in about an hour.  I will also write in the COMMENTS section below when I am finished adding charts. Thanks for being here everyone, and have a great Friday and weekend!

~ALEX

I want to repeat what I have been saying about several Mining companies that I have had on my long term radar, so I will start with Nova Gold.

NG Daily –  Gold was selling off for 2 week straight, but NG was an early leader off the recent lows. It bottomed 2 Mondays ago.

NG WKLY – This is the real point to be made. When the Bull Market returns, I believe that you want to own NG. This is a LONG SOLID BASE and the lows for NG were in years ago.   Do you see the upside potential , if this is what it does while Gold is crashing to new lows? Yes, with GOLD crashing down for over 3 years,  Nova Gold  bottomed yrs ago.   I have pointed out a few of these in the past, and will do so again in the future.  I believe we are AT or very close to final lows in Gold, Silver, and Miners.  A stock like this can go from $3 to $20 and I owned some that did years ago.

More Trade Ideas

CMCM –  This set up is low risk above the 50 sma. You may want to buy after a jump higher, because it is still in sideways mode currently.  If you have been with me for a while, you know that this one can run fast. Last spring it ran from here to $37.

I was watching a particular set up in VUZI for a quick trade-  I missed it and It took off with out me ( I was waiting for the Gold set up & wanted to remain focused ).  The point is that I see a very similar set up in DANG.

VUZI – This was the set up that I watched last week, and it took off.

DANG – Check out the similarity with a sideways consolidation, but also it has an added inverse H&S.  This is quite a bullish set up,  my favorite one here.  Please remember that any set ups can fail, so use stops.

MAT –  Mattel should do good around the holidays

NK –  Great set up and strong run ( 100%), but the volume is light. Due diligence is needed here,  I do not know this company. This could be bought here at the 50sma with a stop below, or wait for a break out from the triangle.

SSTK – I dont know this company, but it had a strong run higher with volume 3 weeks ago.   When I see that, I do not chase.  I wait for the pullback to see how it sets up. So far its a light volume pullback.  This is on my watch list.

GO DADDY –  This could form a cup & handle.  It has no overhead sellers if it takes off.

I will use  my final chart GOGO as a lesson in how I often trade bases and stocks moving out of lows or consolidations.

  Look at  the 2 stocks above  SSTK and  NK again ,  and you’ll see that they POP and run higher.  I do not chase these because often if you buy a stock that is running away quickly,  suddenly  you get caught in a pull back.  Instead I see the buying interest and put it on my watchlist and see how it acts on the retrace.  A short covering rally will fall apart quickly and return to lows  ( Think of some of the Miners rallies we have seen out of lows).  In a healthy run higher however, you get a slow light volume pull back to support and then a reversal candle for another leg up .  THAT is a good low risk entry, with a stop below.    THAT is also what I am looking for after the initial  run higher in Precious metals out of the lows.

GOGO – I saw that strong gap open in Early November and I thought that this could just run higher.  It went on my watchlist to see how it pulls back. We see an immediate  gap fill to the 50sma and another break higher.  The 2nd pop higher has 1/2 the volume, so I anticipate another pull back. That may set the trend line at the 50sma…this is how I develop trades.  I dont chase,  I stalk them.  This set up is still setting up at this point, but it can break higher at any time.

 So even if you’re not buying anything above,   why not watch that DANG chart.   It is an excellent set up for a run higher when it is ready to go.  Much like VUZI was.  Any set up can break down with bad news or a downturn in the markets, but I like the looks of DANG right now.

Have a great weekend!