Slow Week Ahead?

  This is a holiday week in the U.S., so I would expect that the markets may begin to slow down as the holiday approaches. Lets review what took place Monday.  There actually were a couple of noteworthy occurrences since the weekend report.

The SPX, DJIA, NASDAQ  did not change that much.   They paused as expected. I pointed out

UPRO as a long idea in a pause or pullback. It may not drop very much from here.

$USD – We may have seen a very shallow DCL, since the dollar is in the timing area for one, and the trend line was broken.  The MACD stayed steady and the stochastics remains embedded, so at this point we have a strong dollar with more upside possible. There is still a chance that the USD  needs to drop lower to find a DCL, so this is strong but unclear.

NATGAS –  Here is a slight change.  I have pointed out that the chart for NATGAS was a mess, and it was rejected at the 50sma last week.  Now it is actually shaping up in this sideways move.  The MACD is rising the entire time that it kicks and bucks along the bottom, and the RSI is not dropping either.  An observation that changes may be taking place, but  No recommendation.

$WTIC – Oil had a short covering / knee jerk reaction to the comments of the Saudi Arabian Officials.  It then sold off mid day and reversed higher , so we see a reversal candle and some strong volume. I’m keeping an eye on this for any future strength.   NOTE: We still have lower highs and lower lows and the strong volume reversal on OCT 26 and Nov 16 did not change that.

 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudis-stir-speculation-opec-less-205710691.html#

XLE – The XLE found support at the 50sma again,  but there are still signs of weakness in the chart so far.

Just a sidenote:   A few of the stocks that I have mentioned here like CJES, REN, KEG, BAS, etc ( and I did buy and sell CJES without reward lately ) popped today.  Some still look good in this base action, others are falling apart  (REXX) .

The uncertainty is keeping me away for now, we had a false break higher Nov 1 also  (but how can I not like this chart)?

GOLD –  Looks weak to me with heavy selling and the MACD curling downward. I do not think that this is a 4th daily cycle rolling over at this point. A quick move higher would help and a DCL would appear to be in place. 

SILVER – Slightly broke to new lows and put in a reversal. This is a new yrly low for Silver. Silver is more oversold than any other low this year. 

GDX – GDX did not sell off with Silver breaking to new lows and Gold selling down on heavy volume. GDX had very light selling volume, so this is looking bullish so far under these conditions. 

 Interesting moves in certain areas of the market today .  Oils reversal and NATGAS holding up,  XLE finding support at the 50sma again,  SILVER breaking to new lows and recovering while Miners barley move on light volume, etc .  I’m looking forward to Tuesdays action, to see if any of these areas have follow through and set up a directional move.  As the week moves forward,however,  we may also see things slowing down as traders prepare to vacation.  Have a nice Tuesday.

~ALEX