Watching

/98 Comments/in /by

We are still keeping an eye out for various signs in these markets. Lets take a look…

TRAN  – I posted this wdge as a warning in Monday nights report

$TRAN 9-23

TRAN –  There was some follow through. 

TRAN 9-22

The selling was  not on very heavy volume, so I am starting to think this move is going to drive longs and shorts crazy, here is why –

 

SPX – We could move higher and test the break down. Lately shorting has been difficult and going long has been painful.

SPX 9-22

There are ETFs for going short the market such as SOXS, TZA, SDS, SQQQ, etc . If we get a back test and you wanted to go short  ( via an etf that you take a long position in)  this is what you’d look for.

TZA 9-22

 

USD – I have reported inner signs of weakness in the dollar for weeks (months).  I do see minor improvement in several areas, but it still reflects the move in May or July, which were short lived.

USD 9-22

 

WTIC-  No change in our bullish  view

WTIC 9-22

 

NATGAS –  Possibly getting to its next low?  Volume was interesting.

NATGAS 9-22

 

GOLD,SILVER,& MINERS

We all know what we are looking for in this area, a strong move higher in the second daily cycle.  The Miners cooperated a bit less than I wanted them too. Nothing is broken, but disappointing when you want to see a sign of strength pointing to  the next move higher.

 

GOLD – Looks great on day 7. It could pull back even further and still look Bullish.

GOLD 9-22

Silver – pretty big drop, but it has not moved down with Gold on the last 2 days, so it is not a broken chart by any means.  We saw similar 1 day drops in July and August that had no follow through. I wanted the moving averages to hold, but I am also watching the trend lines drawn.

SILVER

 

GDX –  Yes, I think this is ugly and fell more than I expected.  I was looking for the moving averages to hold as support.  It used to be so easy to trade these moves cycle-wise, but lately the shake outs and jittery atmosphere gives us gains and then takes them back again.

GDX 9-22 2

 

GDX (2)– Looking back at last Nov-Dec when we were dropping into a 2nd daily cycle.  We took off and curled back down almost to the lows again before a nice blast off higher into January. We could be seeing that here, thats why I say the chart is not broken.  ( I still honor stops if we break to lows).

GDX 9-22

 

GDXJ – Lets just imagine that  “THEY”  Do paint the charts, as some claim.  You would look at the rapid sell off last August and feel that we are doing that again.  That selling could cause one to sell their position and be left behind.  I’m again looking at last Nov-Dec as a guide, but honor stops if things do not play out as anticipated. 

GDXJ 9-22

 

 Thats where we stand.  I said that today I would try to find some low risk Set ups / Entries in Miners and post a few charts.  yesterdays action caused them to fall deeper than I expected , and so the low risk areas didn’t develop. Now I would be watching for Gold to move higher and see if Miners can re-gain their 10sma and Hold it.  It may even take a couple more days.

 

 

 So that is how I see things and those are the areas that I am watching in the markets.  I was told in an email that I have been calling the SHORT or the Drop in the market very well, as well as the back test and now possible more downside… why don’t I offer ‘short ‘ advice or trade it the way I see it.   As you can see, the markets are down down up, down  up up, down up down up.   I used to trade faster/ Daily moves  for myself before opening this site, but I cant offer day to day trades based on volatility here.  It is hard enough trying to watch for the lows in OIL & Energy stocks and then  monitor those stocks, along with  and METALS and Miners and monitor those positions.  IF anyone wants to take a trade short when we tag an overhead resistance, by all means feel free, even if I am not specifically recommending going short .

 I’m Currently watching OIL / ENERGY and METALS and MINERS for signs of the next leg higher. I am cautious on Energy stocks until they prove themselves a bit.  As I stated in yesterdays report,  some look fine, others a bit weak. Best wishes and have a great day!

 

~ALEX

 

 

 

98 replies
  2. Chris
    Chris says:

    Thanks as always Alex. It’s definitely a tricky environment at the moment no matter what way you’re playing it. I added a smallish position in physical gold this morning as it’s looking like the 50% retracement level is holding and seeing the first hints of a turn higher…again!! Lol But as you so rightly remind us. If you enter a trade just make sure we honour our stops.

  3. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I wrote something in the report and removed it so it wouldn’t confuse anyone. I will place it here as a side note. It is the goal of GOLD tagging the 10sma. Not necessary, but often happens

    So – If you see GOLD Pop today and Miners dont follow, you may be seeing a sideways move toward the 10sma in Gold . Look at my Gold chart above and look at the Aug 17 area. It was after the first run up / then we saw 2 days down ( like we just did) , 1 day up on Aug 17 ( maybe today) , but then Aug 18th was a final drop to tag the 10sma.

    Just an observation in case we go green today and then red tomorrow.

    • Chris
      Chris says:

      In line with your comment above Alex I did read somewhere today that it’s Comex option expiry day tomorrow and according to the comment I read, there is a tendency for gold to lose momentum going into expiry day and then rally afterwards. If correct, that would certainly fit with the your own observation.

        • Chris
          Chris says:

          Good point Bill. No idea if it’s final Thursday of each month or something similar. I’ll Google and see if I can find out.

        • Chris
          Chris says:

          I found August, which was 26th. We definitely dropped into that date and rallied afterwards for a few days at least. But I wouldn’t hang my hat on only one example! I’ll see what others I can find.

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        I cant send them out manually. Its an automated service that sometimes pulls an epic-fail. I hope others check to see if I’ve posted.

        Anyone using TWITTER – It never fails to send the alert when I post. Please follow me on Twitter and go by that if possible.

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        Thx Sandy – I need to look into it. The one that I titled “pulling Back” did have an email alert ( well, I got mine) , but I sent it out on Monday night instead of Tuesday Morning, so It immediately .

    • Maria
      Maria says:

      nice report… still intrigued w/ your thesis pics every day…. just a little sumthin sumthin that makes me smirk everyday..much appreciated.. (yeah, i know frank…kinda sappy – but it’s early) ;o)

      • Onlooker from Troy
        Onlooker from Troy says:

        You know, I was just thinking about the thought and time he puts into the reports’ theme and picture. Quite often they’re really fantastic. Loved the snail going nowhere picture the other day.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Thanks guys…unknown to many, that part of it takes me 5 minutes to 20 minutes at times too. I really do try to match the picture with the theme
            🙂

            I cant just take pics from online due to a copyright warning , so I had to subscribe to bigstockphoto.com and I cant always find the exact one that I like.

            I love the animal ones though, esp the German Shepherd ones

          • Maria
            Maria says:

            gladly :o)
            .. it has taken me mannnny yrs 2 collect — tho I will say, u may have wait a bit as there r many ahead of u waiting to get their hands on my stash…

            … wait…… that didn’t sound right…….. 😡

  5. Bill
    Bill says:

    Watching the Juniors this morning GDXJ. I see 2 possibilities. One, we start flagging and drop to 18 on a declining AB=CD. Which doesn’t sound likely if we are on the 2nd DC. The 2nd choice is the Harmonica Gartely pattern fulfills and we run up to 21.43. Most likely IMHO. See attached

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Just an observation using Cycles and E.W. – Cycles point to the next move breaking to new highs because the first move was right translated.

      If this is a bullish 2nd daily cycle, they run to new highs (like we saw Dec thru Jan ). Your 1-2-3-4-5 ( Of 1) is how I see it, a-b-c is also what I’d see ( of 2) , but I expect the next 1-2-3-4-5 to be the 3rd wave and be stronger than the first wave of 1-2-3-4-5 (of 1).

      • Chris
        Chris says:

        Just to put another slant on it. IF…stress IF…this is just another bear rally as all recent IC’s then instead of a larger 1-2 and potentially upcoming 3 it would be a larger A-B-C. But even under that more bearish scenario the C wave would still look imminent and would normally at least equal the A wave (Maria can verify I’m sure 🙂 ). That would suggest a move to at least 1200 which I believe was a potential targat area you’ve already cited Alex? So still potentially bullish short term even under a longer term still bearish scenario. 🙂

        • Maria
          Maria says:

          excellent chris… my sentiments exactly.. in studying that chart 4 an embarrassingly amt of hrs, last night i saw it as an ABC – with A=C. still short term bullish..(I vacillate between both depending on the action at any given time–which imho im CERTAIN MM purposely do 2 throw us off) granted I would MUCH prefer a 5 wave impulse…so I have both charts/counts up at all times… such is life ;o)

          • Chris
            Chris says:

            Like you I would love to eventually see a 5 wave impulse 🙂 :-)…and we might yet! But just good to be aware of other possible scenarios as events unfold and sounds like you definitely are with both counts on your charts. Great idea. 🙂 Of course, it’s the price action that will ultimately tell us and as much as we might want/hope etc a particular pattern to pan out, the market is the final arbiter and we ignore that at our peril!!

      • Bill
        Bill says:

        CF, I’m on board with the larger wave 3 and have my fingers crossed for that to happen. I’m being cautious with my estimates here. Wave 3 should be 1.618 of wave one which would go higher than my estimate. If that happens we would be looking at a Shark pattern instead of a Gartley. The Shark pattern does have a higher C point and a 1.618 retrace (perfect). I’m still waiting for my grades from Missy Elliot? She promised but hasn’t followed thru.

        • Maria
          Maria says:

          LOL.. ohh believe me bill .. i have been admiring your harmonica for days..it’s just that I do work days you know, and besides.. if truth be told, i much prefer studying them at night .. by the light of moon… or a candle.. or say even the glow of a tv…

        • Maria
          Maria says:

          I’m astounded – actually – at how quickly u picked this up willy… soooo u get an A for Effort for sure..
          .. later i will get out my magnifying glass and really get down brass tacks ….
          *regarding studying the content/analysis of course

  6. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    The weakness in the dollar remains in todays action, GOLD is lack luster in my opinion, and did anyone see $PLAT yesterday?? Hard to know if that was THE BOTTOM & a stop run, but SWC looks pretty interesting here as a possible bottom forming.

    And suddenly PALLADIUM is quite Bullish ($PALL – at $642 now).

  9. ash
    ash says:

    NATTY- Possible getting to its next low- what does that mean ( sorry to ask -:)- is it 2.48 or done with 2.56 range? Alex. TIA.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      hi Ash – Yeah, that wasnt very clear,sorry.

      I was just pointing out that it had a high volume days at the prior lows, yet price spread was minimal. This can signal a bottoming area ( As though there was heavy selling and buying / accumulation at the same time at those lows).

      It takes a little more time to really see what is going on, but my point was that if there was a fear of breaking down fast to new lows, we may now be seeing a change in character that may be more bullish than bearish.

  11. Cason
    Cason says:

    That was a pretty wicked reversal in crude and the Dow and S&P went with it then miners sold off on a $2 move in spot (which is ridiculous). I’m not sure what’s wrong or what we are missing. But I do know it just flat isn’t working. I just ejected all new positions until we have more clarity. This doesn’t appear to be a good time to be invested.

  12. Bill
    Bill says:

    I hate to say it, but the pattern forming right now on GDX 30 min, looks the same as it did 9-9-15 and 9-10-15 (blue candles over laid). One more flush down coming? refresh

  13. knight
    knight says:

    price action on the miners is terrible. If we don’t regain 10 and 50 ma soon I would be very worries. Full position will cut back soon. If you notice GDXJ every time in the last 3 years+ if its hits top BB always corrects to give you a better price entry. I was thinking about this on Friday but with Gold looking so strong decide not take a positions off. BIG MISTAKE. I can’t keep making those kind of decisions. Gold charts looking good miners looking bad right now 🙁

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Knight, I added positions this morning and ended up exiting midday on JNUG and peeling back FSM for same reason you mention so certainly share your concern. I’m close to the point now that even if we end up getting a big 2nd DCL move (which right now doesn’t appear likely) I’ll likely end up net-net an overall loser on trades in the complex.

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        Trading 3x ETFs is dangerous at times.

        Jumping in JNUG when it goes up , and jumping out when it drops will cut you to pieces , because the moves are exaggerated. SO FAR…I see GDX as the same as last Dec’s 2nd daily cycle….time will tell. Trading JNUG in and out at the wrong times could cause anyone to lose confidence. It will be an emotional experience that is hard to recover from.

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          What I mean by the last statement is….I wouldn’t recommend buying JNUG / NUGT with GDX closing under the 10sma. It needs to close above and look like a good reversal before a 3x ETF is a good idea. Until then, it can just jump around and keep chopping traders up.

          • Maria
            Maria says:

            excellent advice CF
            coulda used that a few seasons ago… ;o)
            heading in/out of those razor sharp teeth can absolutely put a hurtin on one’s psyche…..

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            Ok, thanks for advice. I understand the Nov-Jan corollaries, thought we had dropped enough for good part to start. Clearly not the case! 🙁

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Technically it can drop down to the prior lows and just not break them, but realistically….we would expect this to be stronger and just rocket higher leaving many behind.

            If this keeps up, we’ll all be out and it will leave us all behind : ( ( well, we’ll just re-enter higher).

      • knight
        knight says:

        Thanks price action has been very difficult thus far….You got a great group of posters I read here daily and you have done an excellent job with your service. Keep up the good work.

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          Price action appears weak and is very unsatisfactory when we expect a rocket higher in a 2nd daily cycle…I agree. The good news is that It’s done this before and can still rocket higher , because people may be building short positions here expecting a break down. They will have to cover if we move higher.

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        Alex, quick clarifying question – for ‘break the lows’ – applies to 2nd DCL or ICL/all-time? Only applies to GDXJ since it did not print fresh lows like GDX did.

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          I dont want it to break the recent lows in GDX on Sept 11 .

          The funny thing is that now we have them all in sync (Finally) . SEPT 11 lows .

          As for GDXJ , I am using GOLDS Sept 11 lows and GDXJ matched it, so I want GDXJ to hold the SEPT 11 lows.

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            Got it. That was the assumption. Well, we got a good discussion going here, too bad it was under these circumstances. Looking forward to tomorrow’s report.

  15. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    ENERGY STOCKS ( except for DQ ) – Just looking bad. I was watching CRK on the 50sma.. it gave it up. I mentioned REXX getting ugly, it broke down. I’m not holding any energy stocks now.,

Comments are closed.