Fed Thursday! On Your Mark…GO?

Earlier this week  I certainly thought that the markets were waiting for the Fed Decision on Thursday before making any big moves. Today Oil, Energy, and Precious Metals jumped the gun and were off and running!  We’ll discuss more than just those  areas, but first lets revisit what we were watching for.

WTIC – The set up was a Bull Flag pinched between support & resistance. Normally I would buy this with a stop below support, but I cautioned that the Fed Mtg Thursday may cause whip saw. 

Oil is not waiting for the Fed Mtg.  Many energy stocks were up over 10% and some were 15-25% today alone. 

I will post some charts of energy stocks set up nicely at the end of the report.

The USD has been weak in my eyes, and it still looks like it wants to roll over.

NATGAS  –   NATGAS  has been consolidating sideways and started to pop higher, but it needed more confirmation. It has been unable to move above the resistance that I had pointed out and so we will have to see how it looks after Thursdays inventory report.

I mentioned in a weekly report when the markets first crashed that in the past,  bear markets dropped and rallied and dropped and rallied.  A back test would be likely, as shown. Honestly – we are not quite at that level yet.

I want to point out a weekly chart of the 2000 Top. There were drops and rallies drops and rallies. We have dropped and rallied in the past 2 months too. 

Could we be ready for a Fed induced drop?  On a Monthly chart the ‘back test’ is not in place yet, but we can drop here & rally again later. 

NASDAQ –  I just wanted to point out this rally.  It looks like a bearish rising wedge at this point, with overhead resistance in various forms. 

SO are we looking at a market that Tops with the Fed Decision and Commodities rally ?  Well it could be. The Rally has jumped the starting gun today in Oil , Energy, The CRB, and precious Metals already. Lets look at…

.

GOLD, SILVER, and MINERS

GOLD – The chart in yesterdays report pointed out the # needed to have a swing low in place. Above $1111.90 puts a swing in.

We certainly got that today. A swing low is in place on day 34.  That was a right translated first daily cycle, so we can expect higher highs!  We broke from a descending wedge and I consider this a buy. My initial target is near $1200 .

SILVER – I love it when they all pop higher on the same day. There is something to be said about synchronicity  when the CRB, OIL, Energy Stocks, Metals and Miners all pop at once.

I have pointed out that a break above the 10sma  ( and a close there) is a safer area to take a position in GDX.  With GDXJ I used the 13sma.

  I had expected Miners to wait until after the Fed decision too, but timing was late in the daily cycle and everything just popped all at once.  Miners and Energy stocks were all racing higher.  I tried to show this morning in the comments/ chat section that the move was real looking.  I posted at 10a.m. that volume was likely going to be above 70 million ( by the close) as we broke from the wedge.   I know some have to work away from their screens and couldn’t see that post.  There really wasnt enough confirmation for me to be  posting an early morning alert,  just in case the afternoon didn’t have the follow through. 

GDX – This was my 10 a.m. chart pointing out the volume to look for if the move was real. ( I drew it in)

GDX – 81.4 Million 

GDXJ –  Sliced right through the 50sma.

GDXJ – When GDXJ gets above the 13 sma in the 2nd daily cycle, it can be a strong move higher. 

  So when it came to ” On you’re mark, Get set, GO!!”  Commodities jumped the gun and started running on Get set.  It looks VERY BULLISH the day before the Fed decision for commodities.  We were expecting Golds Bottom and Oil to break higher, but honestly I thought it would take place on Thursday,  after a good whip saw end to the day. 

  Some may be wondering,  “Is it too late to  buy?”   No, we’re just getting going.  “Should I wait until after 2 p.m. Fed release, in case there is volatility?”  I actually think that someone might wait to ‘add’ to a current position in case we get a post -Fed pullback, but just taking a position here if one doesnt have one may be best.  Look at the Silver chart above.  Those lows should hold and it may just move higher now that it’s above the 50sma. MANY stocks are just getting going, so I am going to come back later in the morning and post a few charts of some set ups.  There are WAY TOO MANY for me to post them all, so I will just show you what I am looking at.

For example… ABX was a $50 stock at Golds peak.  It was $6 this week.  I think it is just getting off the ground, breaking higher on nice volume.  If someone is afraid that they missed the buy, a Miner like this has room to run.

  While you wait you can look at  DNN (uranium) .  That’s a good looking stock set up.  See also GTE and UPL – those looks like a buy right now ( Energy).   XCO was up 30%  (AGAIN!).   To see the potential in some of these juniors,  check out a 3 month chart of  AXU, EGI, & GSS . 

Its after Midnight as I write,  I will see you in the morning with some trade ideas and set ups.  

~ALEX