Wasting Time
I wanted to get this report out tonight , so it’s just going to be a quick review of todays market action and a bit more on GOLD and MINERS.
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DJIA – The Good news was that todays sell off ended with a reversal candle
But there are cracks in the armor for now. Notice above the downward sloping channel with lower lows and lower highs? Also notice…
The break down sent it under the 200sma. We will be watching for a recovery or rejection.
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I’m still keeping my eye on the fact that the NASDAQ made it to new highs ( Thanks to AMZN, GOOG, NFLX, FB) , but the SEMIs & the TRAN took it on the chin.
SOX – will it recover , or is it leading the way?
My SPX JULY 24 weekly chart (reminder)
And even everyone’s favorite isnt acting like its normal self either.
AAPL – Both the 50 & 200sma lost?
There is a chance that we are seeing the markets roll over and possibly Precious Metals will begin to rally as expected. It could be short term , into October, or more. We’ll have to wait for time to tell.
$WTIC – as I mentioned , this needs to recover that 10sma before anyone should be long OIL / Energy . From the weekend report… 10 sma & MACD rejection
IF IF IF it pops above the 10sma and breaks the blue wedge, we could get a counter-trend bounce / mini rally . A test of the 50sma?
NATGAS – bounced as expected off of the lower trend line. Approaches the apex…decision time comes with a break out or break down.
GOLD & MINERS
I’m happy to say –
The only thing that really changed here is “TIME”. Another day has passed , possibly one of frustration or concern, but the things that were discussed in the weekend report and all last week remain the same. If you read the weekend report on GOLD , none of the BULLISH FACTORS ( COT, SENTIMENT, ETC) has changed, and the possible ICL has not been broken. Just another boring or grueling day has passed.
GOLD – So if the lows of Friday July 24 hold, we have a day 34 low, and we are on day 6 today. IF we break them , we’d be on a super-stretched cycle of day 40+. We do see divergence in the RSI with this sideways crawl.
$1072.30 is the number to watch.
MINERS – I know that we are hearing that GDX is a bear flag ( It could look like one) and GDX almost broke to new lows today, but even if the lows are taken out here, it just stretches the daily cycle longer too. GDX never confirmed a new Daily Cycle , so the same one is just getting dragged out. It will run out of TIME too. I still expect a strong rally soon.
GDX- Notice that SELLERS seem to be drying up. People are possibly even going short for another leg down. IF this POPS over that 10sma and we see buyers hop in, shorts will have to cover. Right now its good to see that volume is drying up (so far). This could be just a test of our high volume lows.
GDXJ – holding up a little better, but it lost the 10sma. 🙁 Not a BIG deal, but I ‘d prefer to see miners take off before Gold does. Also light volume on the selling so far, and also seeing divergence.
SO I wanted to get this out tonight , because we don’t know if GOLD will follow the miners down a bit in overnight action. I know some were concerned, but basically nothing has changed with the overall bullish set up. No one should be “All in” or be using strong leverage at this point ( A smaller position in NUGT or JNUG is fine, but losses may compound that way).
I honestly believe that if you have taken a small position right now , and its a little red , the type of rally out of these lows will more than paint it green. Then you can add when the coast is clear(er). I also believe , however, that people should always honor their stops. Its good discipline and more often than not , saves money for trading later. It is frustrating to get stopped out by pennies and then see that reversal blast higher and you have to re-enter higher. It is worse to remove a stop & watch something get caught in a waterfall sell off.
Tonight & tomorrow in the Metals markets will simply add to the story. Another day of sideways? A shake out & reversal rally? Overnight buyers step in and leave the shorts in trouble? We dont know at this point, but the signs are there that this surge higher is only a matter of TIME.
Thanks Alex. Great report and insights.
waiting game continues.
It’s Brutal LeChiffre. The waiting is the hardest part.
I’m hoping that some overnight action finishes the move & we just blast off.
ah, Oscar Carboni calls Gold to $950-$980….
Have been suffering through small miners positions taken last Monday… RIC today was brutal (even though there was a nice reversal). AUY and IAG… it’s been tough lately. (ever since May, I’ve been so off…)
it would be a nice relief to have some a few green days IN A ROW… for a change.
Have a great night
Xavier
I hear ya. And wow, I didnt see RIC.
Trading the miners has been particularly difficult due to the excessive sideways movements.
Good night
my miners list (I’ve combined over the months with your post :)-
just in case you need it.
It looks a lot like mine. I also have ( off the top of my head) VGZ, AUMN, AAU, RBY, SAND
Ya know….We’re at 1080, and $980 is only $100 lower. If we got it in a day or two and then a screaming reversal, maybe a V-Bottom ….we may never have to visit this area again.
I could live with that. : )
true. V-bottom would work. (enough of this slow death – just do it already)
AAU wow today.
PS: Etrade is awesome for penny stock. ($9.99 flat – none of this adjusted BS commissions)
Am I attending at GC breakout?
Attending at = looking forward to, n’est-ce pas?
Alex, anyone have any info on WNDW? There product is amazing if it works. Could be a long term buy and hold? Volume picking up.
I’ve done a good amount of reading on it , they are basically news driven price pops and drops at the moment. They release promising news and the stock jumps and then consolidates or drops. ( see a 5 yr chart) It is OTCBB.
There is a conference call on AUG 20 that is supposed to answer all of the ” How they do it” and “When it will happen” questions, and how can they manufacture product in the future, I believe it gets a little tricky? .I believe that currently commercial glass companies CANNOT manufacture their windows, so could they keep up with demand? How much can they produce & sell ? They are in the development stages right now.
If that conference call says that they do not have the means to manufacture the product on all levels yet, but are working on financing of operations or developing a way to produce it (something like that)…you will probably see the stock price get cut in 1/2.
If they say they’ve developed the means to manufacture and provide product and keep up with demand, it could take off.
My answer is DUE DILIGENCE. Here is a little fun fact…they have 3 full time employes currently, 2 management and a scientist.
Hmmm, what I was reading Yesterday said they hired a bunch of scientists. Listed their names, etc.
I didnt see that, if you have a link?
And “Hired” could be just consultants? Part time science experimenting?
I have on record that they have 3 full time employees. The owner, and spokesperson, and a scientist
See attached…You could always call them
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thecheapinvestor.com
You need a sign in for that link, So anyway- just do your DUE DILIGENCE on an OTC stock . They may have no sales yet, just a patent . I cant tell.
Their phone number is on the attachment that I posted below. You could call and ask about the product and how many employees they have.
All they want is an email address.
Is this still an entertainable possibility?….. notwithstanding what Alex says about the time cycle factor.
Thats 2hour gold, btw
Yes, possible. I was going to cover it in tonights report, maybe 4 would have to be a tad higher?
as a zigzag/flat rather than triangle?
It looks it, right? So the continuation would be to break downward.
Pattern looks more clear for a higher target, on GDXJ.
then perhaps the final drop.
pre-empting your report….
with respect to GDXJ bounce.. is the obvious target an AB=CD with gap close at about $21?
I’m not sure because it comes with conflicting ideas about how it would play out.
I’ve seen lows linger, but this is just a long consolidation that can lead to further downside. EVen though the COT & $BPGDM are so rock bottom, I just cant rule out a complete wash out to $980 or so , and we’d never have to come back down here again.
Its just hard to reconcile with the fact that everyone is waiting to buy at $1000
is it not the case that the ‘market-movers’ can throw the chartists & fibonaccists a curveball?
always overshooting or failing to complete any obvious target
U r so smart…no wonder u hav Gud in ur name….lol
Ha!
Ill bet u hava tattoo of an owl on ur leg… dont u..
along with my polar bear one!
yeah .. im gonna find that pic of the polar bear in the woodwork…and post it…u’ll see…i just hav2 be berrrrrry careful i dont grab the wrong gazebo photo… HA!
i did actual LoL with that conversation you had with Bill 🙂
that was ET .. there are others.. ill look.
not so smart that i know what the prices will be tomorrow, unfortunately..
but… having said that… surely DUST aint gonna break out of this 2+ yr pattern??
not when theres so many bears (95%) on that side of the boat
:o) luvin my new EW’ers… ;o)
Just to be honest, I do not find it to be very predictive, because it can change with any new wiggle. It shows up for me in hindsight and the wave counts become obvious or when a pattern has played out and we approach the end.
I have NEVER EVER been able to use it to predict price projection accurately. Thats just me.
i know… u’ve made that abundantly clear… ;o)
you said U luv ur NEW EW’ers. Yes, I Just wanted to be abundantly clear 🙂
i should have known better than that not to qualify “EW’rs”. i did NOT mean folks suddenly were hopping on that bandwagon — just simply meant … folks that were using terms or showing charts or diagrams w/ waves counted out .. any teeny effort was/is? appreciated…as I attempt to learn/understand wave theory.
(so there PLDDDDD …. ) ha!
agree agree agree… just another tool for the tool box… sometimes it amazes.. other times disappoints… but I still appreciate the effort by whomever….
Agreed on its accuracy predictions.
…but if viewed with an ‘artist’s eye’ it can maybe give you the general gist of a wave form though
yes, and I do find that when used with other T/A Patterns & even Cycles all together, it can confirm or negate some thinking.
Yeah, I’ve got to say that same thing. It’s very enticing because it can seem to be “magical” at times, but it seems that no matter what, the pattern can morph into any possible eventuality and therefore isn’t of much good unless you happen to be interpreting with the right bias. Maybe I’m wrong, but it just seems like an entertaining but dangerous art.
what im learning is “pattern progression” is what you are supposed to look for … not ‘prediction’… per say….
so for instance with Gold… it ‘appears’ it is in wave 4 now.. so 5 would be next.. and 5 usually equals 1 so it SHOULD look something like this.. before takeoff…
https://www.tradingview.com/x/VAWigQgr/
But I’ve seen MANY EW’ers say 5 was in place already. They called it the lows, then when it kept going, they added an ABC, and we are in B currently. Then I hear mention of an ABC – X – ABC possibly coming 🙂
Tricky stuff
I just looked at your example and actually I’m not sure what time frame you are in, but its not the 1-2-3-4-5 that I was referring to. Your must be another leg in play.
ugggh yesss .. the DREADED extensions of impulse waves – those are ball breakers.. they can go on forever too… 😡
i have great problem trying to work out what fractal level im in.
whether its an impulse or a correction, or an impulse within a correction, or a correction within an impulse… ad infinitum.
seems you just can never have enough information to determine whereabouts you are at any given moment
If you were a rapper.. you would have to be… Missy Elliot 🙂
perfect………….
“……………. think you can handle this gadong-a-dong-dong .. “
Still agonizingly stuck in a range. Higher low on the hourly is a good sign but far from definitive, of course.
still like BAS from yesterday… https://www.tradingview.com/x/rPRPvfNI/
REFRESH – Fat Finger mistake or misprint?
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Somebody got a real bad fill!
: ) yeah, remind me to put a “SELL” in at $15 for tomorrows open
I’m gonna be amazed if GDX ends up having dbl bottomed at 13.18, one penny from all those stops. Stranger things have happened though, and if it does that’s got to be some kind of signal of underlying demand, I suppose (sounds like a real joke, right?). For sure sentiment has to be about zero. It seems that some of these (ABX, NEM, etc) will never go up again!
gotta say.. kudos to anyone who bought GDX at13.18 yesterday.
thats balls of steel.
thought it was gonna drop like a stone.
In reference to the EW discussion, I use cycles as my primary with TA following closely behind, I then see if an EW “fits” within those parameters as a possible road map. When this does occur I enter based on short term indicators either going short or long. If I enter my preferred way is with options going out at least 5 or 6 months starting with a Small tranche and Building a position. It works for me……..fwiw. 🙂
Sounds like a good plan. It is better confidence-wise when you have several methods and they all confirm.
Then if one drops off, you can also keep your guard up and watch for toher clues.
Yes. Could not agree more. 🙂
Currently I am 1/2 positioned in GDX calls, I started Small because of leverage and being able to sleep ;), I am planning on adding to the calls if it breaks the 9 sma with “commitment” or if Gold is taken down to 1040 sh which ever occurs first. My stop will be placed below the final tranche.
I really like the risk reward in this case And I will not blow up my account if I/we are wrong. 🙂
Just my two pennies worth……..
Do you always use options?
Yes, if there is enough liquidity in the underlying if not I will then go to a group of stocks. Sometimes both 🙂 re: energy plays we have had in the past.
These trades are in my speculative acct btw…..shorter term trades, swing trades (DCL’s and ICL’s)
Ken, how do you choose your length/time window? I usually use much shorter timeframe so I am not paying so much time premium but sometimes my targets, but too late. 🙁 Seems like a lot of premium for 6 months. Also we feel good about next 2 months but after that is pretty unknown. Do you plan to hold that long or sell whenever we are a potential top (that is assuming it does ever bottom!)? Cause I was early so this sure isn’t working for me right now. Thanks!
Can’t hold a lead today and it’s only the 6th inning.
I ended selling JNUG this morning at 8.12, missed the early high. I had a terrible entry yesterday so was happy to just get out at cost, just enough to cover commissions. We’ve proven for now that 2 up days is just not possible. Back to waiting! But I do have plenty of cash avail.
The dollar launch does not bode well for gold here.
GDX just hit $13.18 again….and turned higher.
Weird action.
A bit frustrating
No lower low on GDX as gold fell further. Hard to put much weight on that little intra day action but – maybe??
The dollar is poking up above that downtrend line now.
gold is melting on our heads…..
took a small TVIX position.
Just guessing or throwing ideas out there, but that last drop in Gold. It ended with a reversal candle so far, so you look at GOLD on a 30 minute chart and it looks like an inverse H&S could form. Just enough drop to shake ppl out?
Refresh
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yes… nice
maybe even one more candle … it’s riding that “5” path pretty closely (from this am) .. ;o) ha ha ha
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ynGiOP5T/
Thanks Miss Elliot, Let me know now though, Will that complete the move , or are we going to see an A-B-C-X-A-B-C added on down to $980?? lol
“…put my thang down flip it & reverse it …”
i actually prefer … Milkshake…so call me Kelis ………………………….
thats why we wait for confirmation… silly head. ;o)
OOOOOH , so…Have you dipped ur toe in, or have you patiently been waiting – Silliest head? 😉
i dipped myself a snacked size jnug… if u mussssst know ………………………………….
ooo … yummmy jnug snack…
im also watching this … since patterns repeat – im liking this …
https://www.tradingview.com/x/v5mvP54U/
Its real hard to hold miners with the trend being down. It’s not like you can hold them long enough and they will bounce back! Sucks.
Yes, trend down and the longer we stay down here, the more uncomfortable it gets. Looks more like a bear flag and POSSIBLY a 4th daily cycle if enough time goes by.
Did you keep that NUGT? I dropped the JNUG today at +.04 cents, was just happy not to lose since my entry was so terrible. I’m just going to have to wait out. I have a GDX position that is buried, no reason to add yet.
Sold half!
Why do I think that gold’s not going to do anything definitive in the next hour and leave us hanging on the overnight action again?
Because we’ve played this game before? And hated it then too?
So there are tornado warnings around west of my area and they just got golf ball size hail for 8 straight minutes, smashing out windows and damaging everything…so….if you dont hear from me for a bit? I already have Thunder shaking the house. I prob lost power for a while.
be safe.
Thx- Suddenly I feel like I live in Kansas . I have family in Missouri and they get this all the time. Pretty freaky
Oh my…hope all is well…u were prob out there with a baseball bat swinging away… lol
That stock WNDW just went on sale Bill. I’d still wait for that conference call Aug 20 tho
Flat bottom wedge on GDX (1 hr chart) usually breaks to the downside. You just know there are a million sells at $13.13=waterfall
Yeah, hard to see it not breaking down here. On the other hand if it doesn’t, that’s some interesting development (though very short term, of course, being a 5 min chart thing). Betting on that not prudent though.
Could it be? GDX breaking up out of the pennant? Or just a tease?
Not a whole lot of vol there though.
SPX touch and go its 111EMA (as usually). We’re heading down this fall, unless FED miracle (but really what can they do?)
(refresh)
This is a long drawn out process when you go long miners. I am expecting a gap down at the open causing a waterfall of stop selling. Because I expect this to happen, of course this will be THE bottom and miners will blast off.
you must be right. To be honest, I can’t even think straight with miners anymore.
does anyone know? ah!
I know one thing, I should have waited longer before taking starter positions…
Oh frenchie… go do some pushups.. 😉
You and me both!
Woo hoo… ckik clik (strapping in)
here’s an actual serious question.. is THIS a proper H&S pattern??? can’t remember what the specs were on that… its Gold weeekly… https://www.tradingview.com/x/uJ7u7WHl/
Silver looks suspiciously like a double bottom with a higher low, so far. Refresh.
and longer term. Refresh
To Whom It May Concern: Srry for the delay, I lost my charts from last night ( power outage and they werent saved properly?) and had to redo them, so now I am putting the report wording together 🙁 I’ll try to get it done before the open.
NEW REPORT POSTED
NEW REPORT POSTED THIS AM