I wanted to post tonight because the action today was excellent. I think we may be getting the FAT PITCH that traders wait for all year. Lets take a look…
USD – I think it is weaker than it looks . reversed at resistance, but it may still get to the 97+ area before rolling over.
FAT PITCH #1
WTIC – Finally, this is what I have been admonishing people to wait for. Todays burst is similar to the start of both the January & March move higher. We are probably starting a new ICL. For now, we have a strong move higher from the lows. The weekly chart looks excellent too. I drew the blue dotted line down in imitation of what happened in Jan – Feb…but I do NOT think we have that here. We’ll see how oil acts at the 50sma (pause & break higher is likely).
XLE – This could be a gap & go, but in the past many energy moves run up, turn down and then proceed higher. Energy stocks are a buy, so I dont want this chart to scare anyone away. It could dip & close that gap, so maybe just a starter position for now for those that hate draw down. Add on a dip or a break higher through the channel shown. I like individual Energy stocks. I will show you why at the end of this report.
FAT PITCH #2
I think we have the DCL in the MINERS and SILVER looks to have done its magic in the form of a shake out . How many thought SILVER broke down as commercial metal and decided to short it down to single digits? I don’t know either, but they will now have to cover.
GOLD – Gold was down today , Silver and Miners were up. That is Bullish in my eyes. If you were trying to accumulate Miners and could hold the price of gold down so no one dares to buy, that would be a good trick. 😉 GOLD above $1133 is a great start.
GDX – GDX has strong divergence. In the past the POP higher rolled over after day 3 and formed the E.W. 1 to 2 of a 1-2-3-4-5. It doesn’t always do that, so I’d take a position in miners and if it pulls back you can add. If it takes off, you can add.
I got a buy signal on the 2 hr and 4 hr charts, the daily is not yet, but I bought it because…
I was watching as GDX created this trend line this morning. I’d look for a break above it. I pointed it out to DESHY in the comments section. A break above is a buy on a daily, and we’ll probably gap above it, and come down and test it.
I think we broke down in a false move right before the close, and then surged back towards the trend line.
I like the set up in many miners. I will cover this is the weekend report.
ENERGY
Energy stocks have been beaten down to ridiculous levels. When they are this low and people step in to buy because oil reversed (And maybe shorts cover), you get those rip your face off rallies that can last for a bit. DO NOT feel that it was up 10% today and you dont want to chase it. They can go up 100% in a short period of time. Lets look at some charts.
CRK – this doesn’t actually look like a whole lot. P.S. – ITS A WHOLE LOT! 70% today alone! If you saw any take off and they pulled back like this, it may be a great opportunity.
NADL- earnings came out & it jumped over 30%, but look at this chart. Is it overbought? Is it out of room upside? This is just breaking out and 2 weeks from now could double (Just a guess, but easily could go from $0.74 to $1.50).
OAS – There are some that are double bottoming and just ready to leave the launch pad. This was up 14% , and yet looks like it is JUST STARTING. This is an example of not saying, “Its up 14%, I missed it and dont want to chase”. It paused at the 10sma. I think it will break higher soon, so its a buy, stop below the blue line.
ENERGY / MINERS / COMMODITIES. They all look great and they all have been hated to death. Lets see some other charts.
FCX – Just a small “pop” of 30%, but look at that volume. A simple “tag” of that break down is a double from the lows yesterday. 100% minimum likely. Probably 60% more to go over time (minimum).
AKS – Perfect double bottom, great divergence , oversold and the good news? Its only up 14% today 🙂 Plenty more to go over time. It was $6.00 just 2 months ago, a steal (steel) at $2.50 yesterday. Even at $3 tomorrow it could double in time.
I will cover more in the weekend report, but I just needed to post today to point out the FAT PITCH that has been tossed our way. We need to swing at it to make the gains desired. There may be POPS and DROPS and pullbacks to buy, but for the next few weeks , we should see good gains in these areas.
Look at our old energy stocks like BASS- EXXI- OAS- LGCY- HAL , FCG, XES, ENLC, TEX, QEP, CPQ. Smaller ones like WRES, REN, GDP, SFY, SD, TPLM, MHR, etc are real cheap, but may be a tad riskier if they come out with earnings and miss, so beware of when their reports come out. I have seen 4 reports released so far and all took off upside, so that is interesting ( NADL & SDRL for example) .
Remember how HATED COAL stocks were? Look at ACI & BTU. WOW!
Find those set ups that are beaten down and showing new signs of life and you could ….Have a great Friday!
~ALEX
It’s Not A Straight line 
Moving
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Alex, another great report! Thanks and the fact that I’m having trouble adding to positions here probably supports your analysis! Have a great weekend!
Hi Deshy,
Thx. I do wish I was a bit More clear regarding Gold & Miners, so I will restate what I did in the report, but try to be more clear here. OIL is for real, a nice swing & trend line break.
GOLD and Miners are Looking great. NOT a ‘confirmed’ swing, and as I mentioned , GOLD starts to look better above $1133. Miners – I got a buy on a 2hr and a 4hr, but the daily needs to break above that trend line that we discussed.
So GOLD & MINERS ARE NOT CONFIRMED, but the shake out on Silver and the set ups look like it wont be long, so I have added.
Have a great Friday and weekend!
Cool! That means some of your teachings must be sinking into this thick skull of mine! Now I just got to work on getting the report card errr I mean account to show an ‘A’. Have a great weekend!
thanks for sharing. In the reports this helps clarify. If you buy miners would you ever put up a mid day alret or email saying bought miners will explain in nightly report? I know that is not your style but it would be very helpful. I had a 40% position in miners but couldnt pull the trigger to add in hindsight that was a mistake.
WTIC went up 4 days in January, and 7 in March, then came back down. We just had a short rally (ICL?) in GDX just to get slammed back down. If this is an ICL in oil, are you at all concerned that it could last only a a few days and then a return to lows?
How do you expect GDX to move higher while gold slips lower into a DCL? I think we see 1105 in the next week, can the miners ignor lower gold prices and a crumbling stock market and move higher?
FWIW I am all in right now. Miners and GURE
See chart above
Bought CRK at $2.75. Looking at charts of ACI $1 to $8+ (Now at $8) and BTU still moving higher and I believe the CRK move is real. Good volume. I may take a little draw down, but riding this for a while. Possible bull flag will form. I will likely have a stop near the 50sma
LOVE the chart of MPO – HATE the light volume. Could go from $2 to $6….maybe $11? CRAZY.
HK looking good. MUX up 14% . Nice moves starting.
Great recovery on SILVER STOCKS. EXK 11% currently. May=ny about to recover gains from recent sell off.
See AG, AKG, SSRI, SVLC, EXK, PAAS. Volumes look good for 1st 1/2 hr.
I will be gone for the day, I like the way things are shaping up. FAT PITCH
FAT PITCH? Refresh
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fat pitch all the way for energy + miners :))
Seems it. Gotta take a swing when its right over the plate. Dont forget to post your two “Watch lists” near the end of the day…we’ll see if the green is strong. I have my lists lit up now, so far, very good & gaining.
Yep, could be a DCL. Coinciding with the miner action (swing low with pos divs, etc.) it portends good things. Miners certainly tortured us in the first DC, hopefully that’s over and we reap the rewards!
There was actually a lower low on Wed (by just a hair – 1117 vs 1116.9) Does it matter? Probably not. But technically it does and thus we need to exceed 1146 for the swing low. For what that’s worth. Doesn’t matter to me at this point because I’m in.
CHK heads up
(refresh)
(also AA)
Gold and the USD both up the last two days? What?
Thats very bullish for gold. Gold will fly when dollar starts to go down once.
Agree?
wow.. very quiet in here today
Ya, like crickets!
giggle…..
It looks like another solid volume day. GDX already at 42m shares. Will likely get to over 100m again today. It looks like any declines are being bought. This could all turn over very well for the next few weeks.
Carl, that’s the hard thing to predict! How long will this last? The last ICL was supposed to last several weeks, we got one week. I expect this to go much longer than the ICL. Based on the last ICL’s , the 2nd DC seems to be the one to catch. Looks like we caught this one at the right time. Time will tell.
The March one was Crap. Hard to count that one. I got back in long GDX calls Wed PM and have been adding Thurs, today intra day. Let’s do this!
I love that this is getting stronger as the day goes on. Gold isn’t doing anything. Dollar up? Looks good for next week. Im in CDE, NUGT, and JNUG. JNUG up 17% today
I saw the JNUG entry at 6.8 and missed it and that was it. 🙁 BUT I have started accummulating GDX Sep calls. Every dip I add a few more, waiting for that 2nd DCL too.
I also grabbed GDX$14 next week exp. Sold today, up 178% so took profits before weekend. Can always buy them back!
I’ve spent weeks stalking oil and now when it absolutely blows up, I miss it. Geez. Started NADL, BAS positions anyway. We’ll see what next week brings.
anti-LoL..
me too … paying too much attention to state of the miners.
only the initial burst though.
can tend to focus in too closely and not see how much there is to gain
I caught on when CNBC and media caught on yesterday. Too late. I didn’t chase since I figured today it would back and fill. Nope!
I know exactly how you feel Cason. I’ve attached my 1 hr oil chart and the notes I wrote for myself on Thursday morning when I was watching closely to open some ‘long’ spread bet positions. Then I got completely jammed up with other things from Thursday lunch time onwards and was involved in a charity golf tournament all day Friday, so never got to turn my screens on again until Saturday. Gutted at another big miss after closing down index shorts way too early last week and missing the bulk of the plunge in global markets. Three more days and it would have literally made my year!! Very painful lessons, which I have literally paid through the nose for. 🙁 I know full well there will be plenty of other opportunities down the road but still feels very painful at the time, I think as we all know full well!!
Chris, there with you. But I’ll tell you what CF would say – much better to miss a trade and miss potential earnings than to take a bad trade and take a realized loss! I missed the market pullback (man, that was fierce once it started, wasn’t it?) and the sudden oil boom. But, I pretty much nailed the miner top of daily cycle 1 and last week’s DCL. 1 out of 3 ain’t bad?
Absolutely right, especially about mised trades. Just need to keep reminding yourself and as you say better that than take a bad trade and a resultant loss and even more so if you don’t honour your stop losses and acknowledge you got it wrong!! Yes, market pulback was incerdibly fierce and I suspect we are going to see more of that before September is over. Well done on the miner trades though and yes, 1 out of 3 ain’t bad! Lol All the best with your trading in the coming weeks. I suspect we won’t be short of more opportunities!!
Like how the energy stocks are setting up. Bull flag galore (refresh for example with my fav RRC)
Energy fav stocks.
(refresh)
nice list(s) frenchie
…why are they your ‘favs’ …?
or are they just ‘our’ favs here in CFland…;o)
fav in the CFland 🙂
like RRC, OAS, CHK (prefer >$5) in general. REXX and COG too.
That GDP move was ridic. But I also traded it above 3 in the winter, now she’s a penny stock. I dipped a toe into the BAS move. I got a whole foot waiting for her if she gives me an entry next week.
Miners are ALL GREEN (except one)
(refresh)
Trades with nerves of steel
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-28/while-many-panicked-japanese-day-trader-made-34-million
I would personally like to thank Mr. Fisher for providing me with a mid day opportunity to add to my mining positions. Thank you kind Sir for the 3%off coupon, I used it immediately. I have about 50% of max GDX call position built at this time.
Anybody have 2nd D.C. targets yet? Declining 200 day on GDX will be about 18, gold 200 day at 1186. A 1.318 move up compared to entirety of cycle one is (very roughly need more exact chart) is 1238. I don’t think we get that high.
I’m reading about the current drop in stocks comparing closely to the 2011 drop – has anyone done a comparison on that? Do you have an opinion Master CF? Thanks!