Steady Balancing Act

If you are a subscriber here at Chartfreak.com,  you know what this picture represents. Lets discuss the markets and see where they landed at the end of last week.

.

I will start with the wkly chart of the SPX. 

Again we see a LONG consolidation for the entire yr of 2015 really.  Bullish if it breaks higher and rallies, but…

I want to point out the MACD on the above chart and this following chart as a reminder…

 

SPX long term could be slowly rolling over.  Just a reminder.

 TRAN–  I have pointed out that the Break Down  of the TRAN should be noted.    As the SPX consolidated sideways all year and looks like it is possibly rolling over,  we now see an attempt at a recovery by the trannies?

Breaks above the red dotted down trend line & 50sma.  Watch that overhead  resistance. A move above 8600 is pretty bullish.

I think that the Bonds  – TLT –  are bullish in the weekly & Daily chart,  so lets just look at that.

WKLY – found support and is breaking out?

Daily – Breaking out 

USD –  the US Dollar basically looks like a bullish set up,  but is at resistance .  Also …

 

The UUP is not as bullish,  so I am “neutral” until we see this weeks actions.

 

$WTIC –  oil looked promising on last weeks 2 day reversal really, but it has yet to show me any real strength. Cycle-wise it is due for a low, but until we see strength, it is involved in a bearish drop. Do not go long with OIL under the 10sma. 

 

NATGAS– Was looking good for quite a while,  but I pointed out this resistance on the bigger time frame on July 24.

 

NATGAS  has since dropped  and could be turning bearish,  losing the 50sma last week.   Like OIL, it is taking quite a while to push higher and time may be running out  (Cycle wise) .   Watch support here,  there is plenty of room to drop.

 

GOLD SILVER & MINERS

 

I could just write that “Nothing has changed,  it is a very Bullish set up in the next few weeks.”    I do expect that an ICL may be in right here and now, with a rally to follow for several weeks  ( not straight up,  but a stairway higher).  Could we slam down to tag $1033 area? Or $1000?   Maybe,  but it does not have to happen, I will show you why.   

I decided to add extra analysis and view points,  because what else can I say?   Sideways all week, I’m still Bullish.  🙂  I have said that this is an extremely bullish set up, meanwhile all last week we were balancing like the header picture. So lets look at “other stuff’.

GOLD–   Most likely an ICL at day 34, but the Daily Swing from day 34 has not ‘confirmed’ as a DCL  ( or ICL),  so a break below $1072.30 would be DAY 40!!   VERY VERY STRETCHED cycle wise.  I think we rally higher this week.

Golds C.O.T. –  UBER BULLISH friends. This shows SMART MONEY expects a rally, they are closing their shorts in a BIG way.

 

GDX WKLY – Oversold and on the trendline support. Lower low and higher divergence in the MACD.  Bullish.

 

REMINDER-  The BPGDM is still at ZERO =  BULLISH OVERSOLD EXTREME

OK – that was what we have been talking about all week.  Nothing has changed,  it is a bullish set up  ( currently going sideways).   Yes we are  lingering at the lows like I warned we could.   I showed prior lows and pointed out that hanging at the lows bores people ,  others cry out “Bear Flag”,  people say it “looks so weak”  and they start going short.   Even a quick ‘shake out’ from here can scare all new “longs” out.   Now we continue to hurry up & wait.  

 

MORE STUFF

Reminder chart from 7/29/15  For those waiting patiently for a safer entry –  you want to see that surge above the 10sma.

 

In the past I have mentioned the 1033 area as a possible target.  Why?  We broke out above that area and often past ‘break outs’ are “tested” later.    THAT is why I said that  we could go there.

MY CHART from July 28 –  I said it could complete a “Back test”.

 

Look at that area.  It was a 1 day  spike to 1033.90 and a drop .   Does that offer  “Much stronger support”?  You decide.

GOLD 2008 “test”.    Noticed that the ‘one day spike’  of $1033.90 area may have already experienced a minor ‘back test’ back in Oct 2009’s break out .  We bounced around the $1070 area,  where Gold is bouncing currently.  So we have some minor support right here & below.  Stronger support is also below  $1000.   A one day price spike to 1033.90  does not offer ‘Much stronger support’ in my opinion.  The purple dotted line is stronger support.

 

We even did a  back test to $1044 later on in 2010.  It couldnt even drop to 1033 back then .  Support would be higher in that sideways consolidation zone around $1050 – $1160, and we’ve bottomed there so far.   Then stronger support is below $1000. 

Lets get back to where we are now.  Look at this corrective pattern that I found in a “BEAR CORRECTION in E.W.”  I added 2 green stars simply for a visual,  you may see

1. A small H&S  

2.  Then a slight Break down to under cut it 

3. Followed by a run higher.    

 

Now look at GOLD 7-30 –  compare the last year to the above pattern. Oct 2014 to Oct 2015

 

This is an extended corrective pattern in E.W.  (Click able)

 

 

 

There are many possibilities going forward,  I have more charts that I got carried away with over the weekend that I will hold off from posting.  Lets just say this…

The current set up has the markings of an ICL.   A very Bullish trade-able low.   It is extreme in many ways – as I have shown in past reports and this one, so I have to expect it to break higher soon .  When it does, it should rally for weeks.  I was bored to tears last week, because last weeks Precious Metals report was also expecting a nice rally and I wanted to get positioned in Miners and then just go outside and enjoy the summer, not micro manage my positions.

             

 

I hold a position currently, and a slam down Sunday night in Gold/Silver could be an opportunity to buy , add to ,  or start a position.   One would wait for a reversal to be safe.  A safer buy is a break above the 10sma.  Personally –  I think that the LOWS ARE IN.  I do not expect a 4th daily cycle , because of the extremes we are seeing at this sell off.     My end of the day Friday alert was just to help you all to think about the weekend and how you want to be positioned in case we do get that Sunday sell off, since Anything is possible. 

 

I Hope you all had a great weekend and I hope that we all have a better week of trading.  I am focused on the Precious Metals, it should be the best % trades available in the coming rally.

~ALEX

 

P.S.  I think you have seen the lows in GOLD and I posted this possible Break out Friday

I showed this Cup & Handle, with the handle forming

 

This is at 3 A.M. Monday Morning .  We’ve since dropped to the $1092 area again.    We’ll see if this $1090 area holds up as a handle.