Quick thoughts…
I wont have a report in the morning
Just a reminder that we have the JOBS report Friday, so caution is always warranted. I do tend to like what I am seeing today, so I just wanted to point a few things out.
GDX – it could close above the 10sma today, or it may sell off into the close. Either way, you must ask , “Do I want to buy before Jobs report?” You must decide, some whip saw can still be ahead. We’ll discuss a few things to help you decide.
We’ve seen these POPS before, but it’s nice to see so many Miners jumping in.
Here are what a few individual Miners are looking like. I wanted to point something else out here too, with PPP & GORO.
This was IAG this a.m., and now its up 14%. BAA is up almost 20% today.
PPP – please notice in MARCH when PPP popped, the next day was down . So tomorrow could be down, no need to rush in. This may impact your decision on buying now or not.
GORO– please note that when GORO popped in MARCH, the next day was down. So dont feel that you are missing the move if you want to play it safe.
SO I have been saying until we are all blue in the face, that the set up is great! Metals should rally nicely soon. There is still time to be cautious since we have Friday data to contend with, or you MAY want to start a small position in one of the Miners reversing off of the lows today.
Reminder: In March many popped and dropped the next day before really starting to rally.
I am also looking at OIL, as mentioned in this mornings report. It is Squeezed at a double bottom and could surge & rally too. It is HATED & FEARED in the MEDIA, but if you look at Many energy stocks ? They are up ( See XLE) .
SO I will be looking into these areas further for the weekend report. The markets are selling off today . I have to wonder , ” Will they bounce with Friday data and turn down again at a later date? Are they selling off now as the start of an ugly drop to come , while Commodities have a relief rally.” I wont know until after Friday and we’ll review it all in that weekend report. YOu can wait until that report comes out to decide to start a position? Add to one already started?
For those wondering, I am a trader, so I added on a “Trade set up” this morning for a quick trade. Now it has run up enough that I may hold overnight and just see what Friday brings. That is risky, but the overall set up
Best wishes to all, and happy trading.
~ALEX
Oversold Oil 
DIFFERENT
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thanks Alex!
Sure- I just started scanning Miners and saw so many up over 10% , some at 15-20%, so I wanted to point out the move, but also point out that POP in March on the first day. We had a pullback the next . SO IF WE ARE DONT A BIT TOMORROW, it may be fine.
follow up on GDX hourly downtrend line (refresh)
no rush friends.
Almost looking like a H&S too.
bought calls on COG. the hourly is yummy. (refresh)
COG is so beat up. (daily, weekly you pick)
I hope it does for you what CRK just did in 2 days 🙂
yes please!
A downward wedge (OIL) tends to break to the upside I believe.
Yep. Falling wedge is usually considered bullish. XLE was top sector in S&P today by a considerable margin.
Yes- Bullish
Interesting Bullish % (refresh)
One more update. this ratio cracked under its 50MA, which could lead to further selling.
Just heads up
Alex,
Do you have an advise where you normally put a stop loss order? I put mine under recent low in GDX ($13.17) and when on Wednesday it broke it, I bailed out… only to see it recover and move higher. I do not mind taking a quick loss and would like to learn what to do if price broke recent low. Is it automatic sell or how much lower in percentage do you place your stop loss? Thank you!
Hi Alchi,
Thats really a tough question, in my opinion you did the right thing. The difference is that some place a tight stop ( they dont want it to break down at all, so they cut losses pennies below) , and others know that some break downs ‘shake out” & then recover, so they place a ‘losse’ stop ( maybe 20 cents under GDX $13.17).
If Someone is in a leveraged vehicle, that can be too much of a loss to stomach.
So you did the correct thing- its a personal choice as to how far under the low one places it.
One other factor that I can mention for me personally is that if I am in front of the screen all day, and the day of the GDX low had 100,000,000 in volume, and I see it dip below on super light volume, I wont sell. Especially if GDX dips down on 40,000,000 at 3:30 p.m.. It will usually bounce back above and go higher, or bounce back above & then sell off heavier, but I usually wait to see. .
to reinforce the Energy bullish sentiment…
Icanh takes 8% in LNG
ooo lah lahhh…. looks like a dragon ready to fly ;o)
CUDO’s to Maria for pointing out that she liked BAS 2 days ago. Looks similar to the start of the March run higher.
.
Now check out RIG & that volume. Nice looking pop.
lol.. and i was going to post today… still like bas ..;o)
ok .. here is a link to a little ‘screen capture video’ that i created to demonstrate what i meant by just create a line and drag it where you want to – ie. line it up to whatever critical points you see…
sorry for the long code.. i was at work & that’s all that was available…hope it works :/ you may have to copy the entire link and then paste it into a browser…hope thats not too much trouble ..ie. doesnt burn out any brain cells…
https://cdnapisec.kaltura.com/p/573351/sp/57335100/embedIframeJs/uiconf_id/25403481/partner_id/573351?iframeembed=true&playerId=kaltura_player&entry_id=0_scr62zzx&flashvars%5BakamaiHD.loadingPolicy%5D=preInitialize&flashvars%5BakamaiHD.asyncInit%5D=true&flashvars%5BstreamerType%5D=hdnetwork&flashvars%5BleadWithHTML5%5D=true&flashvars%5BsideBarContainer.plugin%5D=true&flashvars%5BsideBarContainer.position%5D=left&flashvars%5BsideBarContainer.clickToClose%5D=true&flashvars%5Bchapters.plugin%5D=true&flashvars%5Bchapters.layout%5D=vertical&flashvars%5Bchapters.thumbnailRotator%5D=false&flashvars%5BstreamSelector.plugin%5D=true&flashvars%5BEmbedPlayer.SpinnerTarget%5D=videoHolder&flashvars%5BdualScreen.plugin%5D=true&&wid=1_l2ebwonn
ps. press the ‘play’ button that’s on my face.. lol – in case u couldnt figure that out.. ;o)
the master in action 🙂
gawrsh… (as goofy would say) ;o)
ps. that line was completely arbitrary … in case anyone wonders.. the point was just to demo how to add/drag a line.. … adding the alert – wellll, that was just another maria perk… ;o)
I had no idea what the line was doing – lol, but the picture- if thats U & family…very nice group of Peeps there.
omg.. that was in response to your comment the other day…. was it Rube&Bill??? asking about your line parameters… i said.. just add a line&drag it.. u said …huh? i have no idea what that means or something like that…so i did a demo.
It wasn’t me? But nice looking family, is that James and Heidi?
bill who is james? Thats me Maria..and my kids&sister.
Nice-Thx! ( I just clicked on the link , didnt have to copy/ paste)
soo.. were u gonna take on blue man? lol
HE started it…if U know them, you know its true 🙂
RIG had great earnings
Ratio MACD is turning. (let’s see how /GC does tonight)
(Refresh)
wake up son… do my eyes deceive me or is that a LEADING diagonal in Gold 2hr….
https://www.tradingview.com/x/LLQpoIkE/
WHoa
son – SonofGud..that is… 😉
my EW web is calling u…. ha ha ha
What? Leading edge? Explain please………
g’day M (/rubs sleep out my eyes, lol)
im buggered if i know whats going on with such a choppy morphing wave.
its a real ‘zillion interpretations – take yer pick’ at the mo.
but your first blue down wave 1, is a diagonal impulse isnt it? ie 5 waves with overlapping 1&4
(but needs labelling i-v .. you only have i-iv??)
i spose this is a possible from whats presented so far.
either 123(45) or abc version
that ii stopped just short of the e
ENERGY SECTOR? Getting close to a bottom in OIL, so time to start planning stocks to pick up for a play. Some have reported earnings, others this week. Which stocks do you expect to recover nicely from the beat down? Maria, I know you like BAS here, who else?
Bill – I spent time looking at Energy stocks. Wow what a set up & wow what POPS.
Just look at CRK, LGCY, OAS, BBG etc etc . Some of the %-Gains were crazy good for traders. I expect many will do that. Maybe look for ones that havent POPPED yet, or JUST put in a reversal with high volume.
And REXX just went from $5.50 to under $2 in a month. That has to be worth a bounce.
These were with OIL RED yesterday.
REXX had a nice pop Yesterday, but not the volume of the others? Beat estimate on earnings. I still think its a few days early to buy? I don’t want to catch anymore knives. LGCY’s earnings were awful and it still went up. CRK nice volume, OAS is actually making money. I like that……
REXX up 25 % 🙂
Assume this is foreshadowing oil should bounce here. But hard to take position until you see at least one green day stick.
Still in limbo here. Could go either way. Gold still rejected by 10 DMA and now testing that bottom trendline yet again. If GDX loses the 13.17 level again it could get ugly for a bit. Could be a real good entry pt though with stop just below that. All up to the dollar, it would seem.
AB=CD on NUGT down to 3.03. Might be a good entry……..
Bill…. when you think you will buy NUGT, let us know.
You read charts very well. Thus where is the support line from NUGT ?
Thanks Bill.
Geurt, I’m just throwing ideas out there, see attached NUGT chart for I’m looking at.. I have usually bad timing when I buy, follow CF not me.
Hard to tell right now, isn’t it? Hoping we can start a slow break to the upside after open and made that makes it’s own momentum that can then start to pick up…
I show the dollar being right up against that downtrend line. Moment of truth.
Strong surge in GOLD with the dollar up?
Remember what I mentioned yesterday…the past 2 Fridays were reversal days, and today jobs number was supposed to be the “concern”. I think it is of no concern, and likely this Friday will be a 3rd Friday reversal that stocks.
Doc…… you were right. Blood pressures go down.
But, be aware of….. the unexpected enemy.
Sentiment is bearish (at least short term) with put/call ratio kind of high, etc. If mkt can’t hold up with that being the case that’s very telling. Maybe that fundamentals are eroding and the breadth issues are not a red herring after all.
Looking good. Possibly we’re getting an intraday backtest of the downtrend line on GDX right here, which would make for another good entry pt.
Well that worked well.
shorting DUST>
That works out well when the time is right. You have decay plus drop… and it goes FAST
EXK looks good, but check out SA – was up 20% a minute ago
CRK up again! Man I just want to jump in 100% right now, someone talk me off the ledge. Timing is key. When do we buy.
Crazy, but CRK is up 100% in 3 days!
So You try to buy the ones that havent run up too much. REXX was the buy yesterday
MAYBE ONLY BUY ONES THAT ALREADY RELEASED EARNINGS TO BE SAFE
Okay, who is the buy Today? SD, EOG, EXXI? I really like EOG, they killed earnings and are making $$$. Also Krammer like the fundamentals.
I havent studied any earnings on energy yet. I am not informed on that area. The SET UPS look great for some good %-Gainers tho.
I also think the Miners might be on their way. GDX above the 10sma with 15 million volume in the first hr. Short covering may start.
I added to my position from yesterday earlier today . Many Miners looking good here
Or when they pop & run, they will usually eventually dip down too. buy the dip ( unless they run like CLNE did last time. no dips).
ratio getting stronger. (note this is GDXJ:GLD)
/gc beautiful.
GDX over the 10sma and volume is big for 1 hr. I think it is on its way.
You saying BUY BUY BUY?
buy on pullback
Some are buys because they already pulled back. Look at IAG or NG …higher lows.
GDX may not pullback, it is a flat bottom. It could experience short covering.
buy GDXJ @ 19.15 or, even better, 18.90?
or even betterer.. 18.70 (=78% pullback)
Bought NUGT, EGO and EOG
NOTE: I like the Miners with recent double bottoms but the second has a higher low ( like NG) . They look exactly like last March.
Bill, this list might help you
Thanks for posting!
DUST short working fine. there’s room to go
bought more AUY…. crossed 10MA.
Check out silver…
And the dollar ; )
Yep, nice reversal right at the trendline. Now we need follow thru!
AG , EXK, NG, SA, etc all had bounce, pullback, and HIGHER LOWS> they are now taking off upside.
Find another like that and it may be a buy.
Like IAG or EGO….you E.W. followers would see that as the 1-2 for a 1-2-3-4-5 move.
Who knows, maybe even NEM will get peppy again some day!
Yeah, we need that for GDX. It was great last time.
GG is also going to have to get involved if the indexes are going to really move up, been a huge laggard recently, ABX up strong from 2 days ago.
Go ‘SA’ Go! 🙂
EXK is doing very well too. Many nice set ups with the last pullback. IAG, EGO, SAND still look ready to go.
That was one nasty fakeout below the 13.17 GDX low (assuming this all holds up). One thing about it is that it’s liable to erode peoples’ stop discipline. I know I got faked out of some of my position and it’s hard to see that happen. Knowing how you’re going to re-enter is key, or else it tends to lead to reckless chasing and emotional trading. Been there, done that.
i got faked out of 1/3 of what i had… d’oh
but least i got a good nights sleep that night.
tonite? .. maybe not so good as it coulda been!
I did not get stopped out but just reduced exposure, now when to add back……I am thinking either adding if GDX closes above the 10sma near ths close or wait till Mondays action for verification of this up move???
hi K.
yeah.. i was goonna ask a general question to the group.. as to what trading systems they use?
at present, im using a hotchpotch of entry points… eg swings at oscillator extremes, eMA crossovers (inc Elder type momo), sMA breakouts & pullbacks, & congestion breakouts.
GDX short term time frame:
MACD cross is positive.
RSI trending higher is positive.
Stochs confirming is positive.
It is just the bullion banks that is concerning to me.
Or wait for wave 1 to complete and buy near the bottom of wave 2 down. 🙂
Yeah, exactly and me too. Lately we’ve seen stop run, recover…stop run 3 days later, and recover. Stop run again 3 days later, recover. It gets frustrating & def could erode discipline.
Less worrisome with individual miners . Some made higher lows ( NG, SA, SAND, IAG, EGO)
Alex, Any thoughts on SSRI? Seems to be stuck in neutral and earnings out so….??
Earnings release last night. That may be being digested.
They werent bad earnings, but SSRI also held up better than others in the pullback. . It only pulled back about 62% , so maybe less shorts covering? Less new buyers? Not sure.
Thx. Thought it might be a ‘bad chart’ b/c the rest of those items didn’t seem that bad to me when I heard it either.
just a feeling… /gc is not finish the day well.. don’t like the action
gotta allow for pullback/correction though?
Yeah, I’ve been giving this one a lot of thought today. I thought we were ready to ride the rocket and wanted it to take straight off (and still do!). BUT it appears bears are not giving up. I have not seen any signs of short covering at all. In fact, I would tell you I think there is a large crowd still shorting every pop. So, I think this bottom might be a bit of a knife fight. Which really makes options and 3x ETF a bit tough.
Gold still below 1100. Swing high of 1105 needs to get taken out then 1130 break down. If spot can get past that, we could get some real legs. So, while I am wholly unimpressed with GDXJ right now, trying to keep actual spot price in perspective.
Alex, any thoughts on this would be awesome in the weekend report.
ARP – Energy stock up 31% today , almost 70% in 2 days. Oil still down 🙂
Man are these beaten down.
SOOOO, make sure earnings are released on anything you buy.
EX: CENX -ouch!
H&S I was seeing broke down on gdx (on 5 min chart)
$13.54 is the line in the sand
i think its ok… looks like it’s working on “2” right now….
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tE7R5EQC/
Or this 5 minute chart … (Refresh)
yes, next step the VWAP to regain trend. keep bouncing off it
ok, we’re over. I like it better now
Went to $13.53 & turned higher.
Maybe “They” are listening to you? 🙂 J/K
RUT monthly never got a MACD pos cross on it’s breakout from 2014 range and is now just below the double top level from 2014 (and 200 DMA). Neg divs on MACD and RSI, of course.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24RUT&p=M&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73733115120
Maybe a complex H/S on the daily too that just broke the neckline today. I haven’t see that talked about like the one last year was.
http://schrts.co/YK30qi
AQXP…Oh good, their test results came in positive.
WOW!
not good. GDX cracked.
Can’t hold a lead. Let’s see how it closes.
Stopped out of JNUG for yet again, another loss in PM land. Really, really hard not to be emotional now. Thought we had something going today, this is what pure heartbreak feels like. I have to question what I am doing here. Continuing to short the pops as they occur would be working much, much better. Why fight the trend (and the bullion banks).I’m really starting to wonder if a rally can even happen in this sector. All signs are there yet every attempt fails. Badly.
If I may mention with a desire to help
It sounds a bit like Too much leverage? I have no idea how big you are going in ( I dont need to know) , but you sound like your losses are big.
If one waited for the GDX to get above 10sma, started small, and got stopped out…I dont think it would be that emotional. Its not time to swing for the fences.
re-read your last sentence. That is from trying to catch the bottom, maybe you should wait until we have a low above the 10sma , and then a pullback towards the 10sma? Play it safer.
Thanks. I thought I did that when we busted the 10 day, drifted down to test and then turned back up. Obviously needs to close above that.
I really can’t believe this sold all of the way off. I remain completely shocked.
So, upset not b/c of the actual $$ figure today but more the batting average – I’m missing every trade right now. Also,I knew this conundrum to be completely true – 1) If I sell, it will be at the lows and it will move higher Monday 2) if I hold, it will move further against me Monday. I have some other positions just absolutely beat in the face today, too much all at once for me. Sorry for crapping on your board.
Ur not crapping on the board, not at all. It has been frustrating. Other lows would have dropped and popped and run higher by now.
I just thought that when you were saying how terrible it is (And I look at a chart of GDX and it hasnt really changed) I thought that the problem may have been position size , so I just wanted to mention that for future trading.
What you said is true…we broke above the 10sma and seriously this morning looked good , because many miners were blasting off. SA, NG, IAG, etc etc tacked on some good % – so it looked “Real”.
Still could be , we are “at” the 10sma area. It is just amazing from my view point too. I write a letter and 2 Fridays in a row ( now 3) we are left with a reversal candle going into the weekend ( Not many want to hold through Sunday overnight) so its a tad frustrating in that way too.
GOLD may have close above its 10sma, but BARELY and on a friday, so it doesnt mean much to me with a SUnday night raid possible.
Dont worry about crapping on the board… Thats what it’s here for and We just change the page with the next report 🙂
cason…so sorry about your week :-/ it’s a tough battlefield out there and getting tougher every year.. scratch that.. every month!! for my first few years I was strictly a swing trader and did pretty darn good…but .. since beginning daytrading… ugggh… it’s totally messed with my ability to swing… i suck at it actually… i seriously have to do some wicked deep breathing not to “intervene” during corrections…:-/
annnnd daytrading is gruesomely difficult so let me just say you are not alone in getting stopped out .. we all get dinged, it’s part of the game just take a deep breath and wait for confirmation before you step in … or dont trade those evil 3x ers… they just compound the problem – for me anyway. I stopped trading them this year & I am a MUCH happier camper. ;o) (i did just take a tiny nibble at jnug…knowing full well wave 2 would be a deep correction i never know w/ work if I’ll have time .soooo.. i bit. ;o) 50 lashes with a wet noodle for me… ha ha…
have a nice weekend my trader friend….
M
Thanks, Maria. I meant to swing it, but I have just seen this tumble down without mercy so often and just didn’t did want to be a part of it. Should have started smaller and added but too late now. Day trading much harder than it appears.
As far as the 3x ETFs, I hear you. I am small time and sometimes use 3x and options as I don’t have the full capital to go in 1x. But need to do a better risk decision. Thanks
This is really bad. I’ve actually had a really tough day. Not what I had hoped going into the weekend, may have no choice but to let go of JNUG. 🙁
All of that damage, spot gold never moved more than $7, but that was a 10% turn hi to lo in JNUG.
GDXJ trying to turn negative. I try not to pay attention to GC_F moves this late – COMEX is closed for week, most big traders have packed it up for the day. But may got stopped out shortly.
MUX was a favorite of mine to play in 2013, 2014 BMRs but has been absolutely gutted past year, may present a huge opportunity if a true bottom is in, watch but wouldn’t grab yet.
Look at CDE, absolutely getting hammered, it was over 4 just a week ago. Def can’t get apathetic out here…
Looks like the trading range continues.
Buy the Green line , Sell he red line
.
Refresh
I am not adding to GDX just yet, just cant seem to close above the 10sma but another positive is the USD hit resistance again today and sold off.
$13.48 is the 10sma for GDX.
We close in 12 minutes.
Place your bets ! 🙂
If you look at UUP – thats a bearish engulfing.
Indeed ! If only the commodity sector would take notice !!!!! For crying out loud! 🙂
Thats for sure!
No kidding. Maybe if you tell them, they’ll listen?
XLE anyone ?
XLE isnt above the 10sma either, so it isnt really safe . I’m not sure what is safe above the 10sma now, XLE closed above it 2x in July & gave it up.
I think we need to see XLE or GDX move strongly above the 10sma for 2 days or so and then drifts back down to back test it on light volume. A higher low .
That would be considered a ‘safer’ entry.
But many of the energy stocks do look tempting.
Agree.
Although….couldnt resist…. I bght a small position yesterday morning and added a little more this pm stop just below yesterdays low, it is a risk (1%) reward trade for me. 🙂
i still think it’s behaving as planned… here’s where EW reallly help me understand where we are in the wave… wave 2 is generally deep 61%, so i was expecting a pullback. But..it ‘appears’ that 2 is over and 3 is on deck..woop wooop.. it did seem to bounce where it should have, but wave 2 CAN retrace up to 99% of 1 sooo.. i generally skip wave 1 cuz im not a happy camper sitting thru wave 2 correction .. which is why Im with Ken.. hop in AFTER 2… at the beginning of 3 and ride that mo fo heater to the top…
https://www.tradingview.com/x/GutJpiDy/
LOL LOL !!!!
You tell em Maria !!!!
Did you join me in XLE….wave 2 down….just sayin 🙂
That- A -Girl Maria….throwing in some Fib #’s now : )
;o) no time to even look at charts today…. this weekend will be fun..
think I’ll join u in having a nice cold one…. tshhhhhhh (that’s the cap opening) LOL!!
ken..can u show me xle..im not seeing it…
Thanks for that chart.
Welcome.. just know price can travel alll the way back down.. 99%..if if moves beyond then wave count fails.
Ive watched candles paint down to the exact penny b4 reversal. .its crazy.
Man. what a ride…. plus I took the fast lane via DUST…. my stomach is upside down
Been a long week, time for a cold brew!
Have a good weekend all.
I was thinking Gin & Tonic , but OK, I’ll start with a old one 🙂
P.S. GOLD CHART looks pretty good. Closed over the 10sma and the past 3 Fridays show up as Reversals. Maybe this one sticks??
Hi Alex,
when will you release the weekend report?
Thx
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/434027d56af21ebb82b99e68957d470323e5b1349a75360125db7df51a1a81d6.png
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