“The Train has left the station”. In trading, no one likes to hear those words. We want to be ready to get on board before the train leaves the station. Today we will discuss the schedule of the GOLD TRAIN, and see when it is due to leave the station. First lets look at the markets…
In the weekend report, I mentioned a pullback was near based on Fridays charts of the SPX, NASDAQ and the Vix. SPX was at prior highs again. Nasdaq was gapping up outside of the B.Bands.
Tuesday the SPX looked like this as it dropped Tuesday & Wednesday…
It may just dip briefly, since we just came out of an ICL. We almost tagged the 10sma today.
QQQ– I’m watching the recent break out for a possible back test soon.
USD – The dollar turned at the 98 area as expected, now I am watching 2 downside targets. It also reversed on the 10sma, but there is reason to believe the dollar drops a bit more . It would be great if the dollar actually went higher and double topped here, and Gold double bottomed (Think Gold undercut), and then continued lower.
WTIC– Oil sold off Wednesday, continues to be rejected at the 10sma. Oil broke below the 61.8% pullback line Wednesday. A test of March lows? We still see divergence at the RSI & MACD hist, so I am just neutral at this point, but this consolidation may only be a 1/2 way point in this drop.
NATGAS– Still bullish looking above the 50sma.
GOLD, SILVER, MINERS
Honestly, I did an extensive weekend report and a thorough follow up Tuesday on Gold and Miners. I tried to think of the various possibilities that could occur and since then… not much has changed. I will cover new developments, but please re-read Tuesdays report about Gold for reminders of what we may see this week. I will also cover a few reminders here.
GOLD – Day 31 holds the LOW currently. We could have the lows in place, since day 31 is getting late, but we have also seen day 33 or 34, so….I would prefer to see us undercut those day 31 lows, making day 34 THE LOW. Is that likely? Yes , it often scares ( or stops) new buyers out.
Here is an example so you can see this undercut for yourself. Look at the GOLD CHART ABOVE & compare the past 3 days to the One below. Very similar set up.
What happened next? Did it undercut? Yes, and closed down there to really look weak. What happened after that?
That undercut was THE LOWS. This was actually how the GDX played out last Nov.
As a reminder, please look at the above chart of GDX again and notice that price often lingered at those lows , even after it recovered. GDX above popped & dropped, so we haven’t Missed the lows if you are playing it safe waiting for a confirmation first. The BUY is the day after that low , when prices passes above that days high.
SILVER– As mentioned in yesterdays report , SILVER still didn’t break down lower again today. It may have already bottomed. Notice that it too already undercut the slam down lows of July 7.
GDX – This already undercut and recovered today. Is that THE LOWS ? We dont know yet, price could dip to new lows if Gold does tomorrow. It also may resist the selling in Gold if that dip happens. The BULLISH signal would be if GOLD undercuts, and Silver and Miners do not. THAT would be a real confidence builder. WATCH FOR THAT if Gold dips.
Since Wednesday was the lowest point in the GDX , a move above yesterdays highs could be considered a BUY, with a stop below the lows. That would be a swing low for Miners.
I am obviously very focused on the metals markets right now. Until we get those lows in place & confirmed , I have to watch that sector closely. As for the mid day traders, you can watch CRUS, FTK, SNDK ( they had good after hrs action). I am a little leary of the markets going into this fall, but in the past I had mentioned some “long term Buy & Hold” stocks like Under Armour and Nike (UA, NKE) , etc You can add this pretty chart FL.
Thats all for now. I often dont have a Friday report, because what I write for Thursday often doesnt change much going into Friday. The weekend report covers everything from there, since Friday is the last trading day of the week. Also many people here wont hold anything ‘risky’ over the weekend, so they choose to lighten up. Well, I have a feeling that the way Gold Silver & Miners are trading, I will have a small update tomorrow. If nothing changes and I dont have an update, have a great weekend!
.
~ALEX
P.S. GPRO caught my eye with a bullish set up. It could actually double from the July lows. It had a reversal yesterday, so it may pull back a bit or go sideways. If volume lightens up on a pullback , it could be bought near the 10sma daily chart.
WKLY = Bulllish break out with volume
Big Picture, Bulllish
Close up daily – Bullish. It is breaking out , but put in a reversal candle yesterday. See how it acts from here, but it looks pretty sweet. NOTICE- GPRO has had ‘reversal candles’ on the way up that did Not cause a pullback.
Be Prepared 
Think Out Loud
Scroll to top
GPRO charts added to the end of the report. That weekly chart is VERY bullish. The Wkly & Daily are breaking out.
Alex, do you have the SMA on your gold chart set for 10 days or 8 days?
Thanks!
EYES looks like its leaving station also.
Yes, I really like the way that one moves once it gets going. Nice pop in volume yesterday.
I am nervous in that sector again. Remember when I mentioned good set ups in ZIOP, IDRA, EYES, and XOMA?
Look at XOMA yesterday. Overnight bad news and these things get walloped !!
What are you looking at to think EYES is going up?
Yesterday’s action.
Looks like a cup and handle forming.
Agreed : )
Alex, Thank you.
based on price action looks like we may indeed get an undercut today.
on Gold i mean
Could be, and if you haven’t taken any positions yet, it is best to wait for the reversal rather than trying to catch the exact bottom ( just in case that drop gets a little rapid to the downside). Also watching the dollar drop & then put in a reversal this a.m.
I’d like to see that double top at 98, while Gold undercuts, but if it breaks out higher? Gold could drop further.
GDX and NUGT going higher pre-market.
Thanks Alex, I’ll be watching GDX $14.28. What do you think about GALE. I bought some and not getting a follow through? I have a stop at $1.66
The overall chart still looks good. It got almost to the overbought area on that last run up, but nothing extreme.
It’ll be a bummer if they run your stop, but its where I would put it too. It is a 61% retrace from the last run higher.
I cant remember who it was , but someone emailed me and asked me to look at LUV (Airlines) . I drew this chart for them (refresh) , and I hope they bought it. It popped nicely today, its closing in on $40. . All airlines look to have popped , see DAL, UAL,etc
GDX broke out with tht gap open today, and ropped to test the break – ( Clickable Chart below refresh)
I would like to close above $14.09
.
So much for that for now. No turn yet.
Yep, broke right back under
Good morning Alex, you wrote: “I am a little leary of the markets going into this fall.” What do mean by that? Could you a bit more (for me) explain?
Many Thanks, brother
Good morning Geurt,
They still look toppy to me , and as I’ve pointed out $TRAN and $SOX broke down & never recovered.
Could be Warning signs
I mentioned in the report that traders could look at FTK, SNDK , CRUS they had unusual activity last night.
FTK is up almost 50%?? WOW , and CRUS & SNDK up nicely too.
Look at CRUS chart, Now Watching CY
IDRA looks good here, continuation of the break higher
wow idra
Alex, I think you nailed it. This move in GDX is just hanging around. I believe your idea of one more little drop before the train leaves is correct.
I am really ready for the train to leave. Been waiting at the station with all my bags packed.
yeah…. same… gettn pretty darn tired of seeing red everywhere…that’s for sure.
MEEEEEEEEEE TOOOOOOOOOO.
We looked at price lingering at the lows in Tuesdays report. That was easy to ‘look’ at. If this is the lows, this is what it ‘feels’ like.
right? the GOOOD new is .. ive been super duper productive at work…. lol ..lol
If gold closes down today that would be 11 straight days. Talk about a standard deviation outlier.
I dont have that Carl,
Using stockcharts , I have that it closed up Tuesday , but also that it only closed down 6 in a row before that.
Is that right?
I think you are correct. Don’t know where I read that. Might just have been some misinformation. Might be getting close to a low as my brain is not working correctly.
U R not alone, I dont sleep well at bottoms, I’m up all night drawing up charts 🙂
I have limit orders in at $3.31 for NUGT, waiting
Looks like dead-on re-test of the low and bounce for GDX today.
Euro appears to be rallying.
And I used to think that when the Euro & Yen got going , we’d see the Dollar dropping and Gold move higher , but lately that went out the window : (
Yen still basing but does seem as if it wants to rally. Hard. Massively out of favour. Won;t take much to knock all the Yen bears out.
Gold might yet need another month but setting up a sizeable rally. GDXJ will be a good place to be. Or it may be basing around here. Wouldn’t be surprised if it is
Yeah, that $13.66 area was yesterday, but SSHHH, they’ll hear you and take it down fast ( Well, it feels like that would happen).
Well so much for that V bottom I had envisioned …… lol ……I have Not filled my 2nd. tranche fully yet, I am going to wait till the close to decide, will most likely wait for tomorrow to decide.
I haven’t taken on anymore either. This is the area where I entered by first buy, so now I’m too close to a potential ‘stop’.
This is why I said ( I think in my weekend report) that there is no need to rush in at what looks to be the lows. They often linger in that area and offer another opportunity.
This late in Golds timing, I would think this is the lows, but safer to wait because the markets often do whatever they want. There will be plenty of upside potential onvce the lows are in & the move higher begins.
MAYBE the undercut on GDXJ is taking place now. ( hasnt yet though)
Agree……I am leaning towards waiting for the next daily swing at this stage in the game.
Maybe on a closing basis, because the swing seemed to come in this morning with a high today over yesterdays, then it dropped. Maybe a strong surge higher or close above would be safer.
These lows are brutal. AND…if you look at the November lows, those undercuts were Much deeper to run the stops. I really dont want to see that here if people have taken positions – it is too tough to hang on.
GDX / GDXJ on a 5 minute chart . Boom! What was that? Head fake? Short covering? pretty good volume…
Wait for it…Wait for it.
Nope..now heavier selling. Another False Pop.
USTs rallying. TLT heading for $123 which is confluence of 200DMA and falling trend line from end Jan highs. If breaches and sustains and rallies then 1. Could rise 20-40% in this rally 2. Say goodbye to any FED rate rises.
Seems likely this will play out.
Yes, and it looks like TLT has worked up a decent base after all this time too.
TMF is quality 3x ETF
Thx, I actually forgot about that one.
Above BB. Not good.
I kind of expected a blow out bottom and quick recovery with these miners? Not this slow, slow, slow, decline? Getting close to the lower trend line on the 15min chart. I moved my limit order to $3.25
Bill, I don’t know what to tell you, man. With the reversal yesterday and then gapping up this morning, I thought it was in the bag. Instead watched it sell off all day. I was SHOCKED. I knew what we were expecting but once we cleared 1100 in pre-market, I thought we were clear. I’m already in. 🙁 🙁 🙁
NEW POST- EMAIL ALERT IS LATE
NEW POST – EMAIL ALERT IS NOT TRIGGERING
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I didn’t miss the gold train. But it did back up and run right over me. I guess that is what I get for jumping the gun. Already in more than I should be; won’t add any more until we see serious strength. If it opens down tomorrow I’ll have no choice but to stop out of all positions.