Pieces Of The Puzzle

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 Once you have all of the pieces of a puzzle  in place, the picture gets quite clear. Unfortunately, I dont think we are quite there yet and today may not help all that much.  Today is the last day before of trading before a 3 day holiday weekend in the United States, and I expect most of the Big Boys will be leaving early. I think we may see some action in the morning, but by 1 p.m. Eastern time, the day may just drift.  With that in mind, lets just see where we are at currently and I’ll discuss things in greater detail in the weekend report.

SPX – Is that going to become a ‘buy the dips’ recovery or just a bounce?  It may even get to the 50sma, we’ll have to see.

SPX 7-1

 

 

NASDAQ –  3 points listed on the chart  (mixed)

NASDAQ 7-1

Remember what I said about the VIX – it may hold the key to the markets future direction

VIX 7-1

 

USD–  looks bullish as noted with yesterdays UUP chart

USD 7-1

 

$WTIC –  Oil had a rough day.   Closed below the 50sma Monday (warning) and then tested it Tuesday ( warning).  Fell fast Wednesday.  I have mentioned that I am out of energy because of the MACD , closing below the 50sma,   and other signs of weakness.  This could be breaking down   (SCO – inverse OIL –  looks bullish)

WTIC 7-1

NATGAS – I actually still like the looks of NATGAS, as it remains above the 50sma and holding steady.  Can I trust it now?  Not sure.  I am not long or short here.

NATGAS 7-1

 

GOLD SILVER & MINERS

 

Oh Boy – talk about missing pieces!    Miners sold off and the GDX broke the March ICL lows and I got a strong buy signal. Huh? More on that later.   Gold & SILVER did not join in the selling   (yet).   I studied the charts tonight and have a few ideas, but there is a piece of the puzzle missing at this point.  I have a Bullish view and Bearish view from here, and will put those in the weekend report. When I get to Miners,  you will think I’m crazy  🙂

 

GOLD – If you saw Miners selling off today, you would think it was a bad day in Gold.   This chart of Gold is no different than the last several, right?  In fact,  Gold is where it was last Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday , and yesterday.   It looks like it wants to tag $1155.   EDIT: Gold just took out the June 5th Lows pre-market. Mission accomplished 🙂

GOLD 7-1

 

SILVER–  A bad day in Silver miners.  Are they leading the way down ?  Well, this chart actually looks bullish  ( except that there were no buyers).    Selling  today was very light volume and contained.

The last time we had a Bullish falling wedge,  it broke down for 1 day and then went higher.

SILVER 7-1

 

GDX – GDX broke below the March ICL lows of $17.29.   Does it matter?  I am going to say ‘no’.  Why?  GDX 7-1

GDXJ – Notice that GDXJ broke below the Nov lows in Dec, and then Broke below the December lows in March.   Gold didnt. They were stop runs in the Miners before price took off higher in Gold, Silver , & Miners.

GDXJ

 

BACK TO GDX-   This is strange, but I got 2 solid buy signals in GDX Wednesday!  One is extremely rare.   This buy usually means a low is imminent.  It could be Thursday or Monday.     If it fulfills, Will it just be a bounce to the 10sma and a shorting opportunity?  Possibly – That piece of the puzzle is still off the table.  

GDX 7-1

 

   Personally, I couldn’t believe that I got that BUY signal, because  this signal almost always comes at an ICL only.   It is based on 3 separate indicators that trigger at extreme conditions.    I get it only 2x a yr if  that, and already had it in March!  Very rarely has it come at a 3rd daily cycle low when a 4th is coming.   THAT has me baffled, because it is just too early for an ICL ( Final deep meaningful low) here.

  Looking back, the last time I got that signal at a DCL with further downside to an ICL was just before that Bounce in OCT 2014.   It was a weak flag where  GDX tagged the 10sma and dropped fast into the ICL  Nov 5th  (purple circle) .  SO maybe we go a bit lower for a day or two & flag? That would mean we could be here in the purple circle….

GDX 2014

 I am NOT saying to take that buy.  I am saying watch for a bounce to the 10sma and we May/ May not  have a new short entry. We have to see how things look as this plays out.

Lets see what our last day of the week has to offer,  and hopefully another piece to the puzzle will fall into place.

Have a great day / weekend!

~ALEX

 

P.S. The biotech sector  still look good.  look at the bottom of yesterdays report for charts .    IDRA is holding as a inverse H&S,  ZIOP is a bull flag,  and this happened yesterday to one of the charts I posted.

SCLN

 

I grabbed this at 12:44 p.m.  . IT actually went up  to $11.41 ( up by 16+%  and then closed at  $11.24)

SCLN 2

LJPC –  buy a dip?

LJPC

48 replies
  1. Bill
    Bill says:

    Thanks for the report Alex. My experience is the miners usually lead the way before gold makes a move. Gold will follow lower here, that may be the play Today. I am watching DUST for an entry as a day trade. I got in Yesterday and it worked out. GDX as you pointed out is at the March lows, I expect a small bounce as you mentioned and then further downside to the November lows. That will be our buy opportunity.

  5. JDWM
    JDWM says:

    TRAN not looking good. End of next week / following week should be eventful – Greece probably and post 4 July should be clear.

  6. JDWM
    JDWM says:

    Happy 4 July to all my forum buddies in US.

    Can I just point out 2 things.

    1. The US is the ONLY country in the World that uses the date format Month Day Year. Think about that.

    2. How ironic is it that you use the British system on Saturday????? The BRITISH system!

  7. WISHFULLTHINKIN
    WISHFULLTHINKIN says:

    Alex, has today’s inventory report on NAT GAS, and the action in UNG made you trust it now? Thanks much, and hope you and all on this board are safe over the Holiday. 🙂

    • JDWM
      JDWM says:

      I suspect CF may say it’s above 10WMA and volume looks good so has potential. I would add indicators pointing up. Looks good to me FWIW

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      First increase in gas and oil rigs in 29 weeks was the reason for the damage in energy this afternoon. I’m still long gas, painful but think we move up next couple weeks.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      If you look at my chart of NATGAS in this reort, I had drawn a triangle. Today we hit that top line and turned back. It is still looking fine, but do I trust it?

      I actually still think NATGAS should make a nice run higher , after 5 waves down completed…but it is just meandering out of the get so far.

  9. LeChiffre
    LeChiffre says:

    IDRA should finish green for the day.
    Got a small position in NUGT. Like the action.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I have been watching that too,

      Ziop had a nice bull-flag, but it broke down today. The overall pattern is fine, just that small flag didnt play out

  10. Shermo
    Shermo says:

    a countertrend rally in the s & p going into options expirations week would be a really nice set up for second leg down. will look to play it if it happens….gold could rally starting next week into 7-27….may not play it though….I like the more probable plays……gdxj:$spx chart set on weekly with slow stochastics has caught every down turn since 2011…we could bounce here but next down after this rally should bring this indicator and others Alexa has shown us to a better buy IMO…..Have a good July 4th Alex……you deserve a relaxing break….

  13. Cason
    Cason says:

    My metals call from yest almost completely on. I called reversal but during the day, not at the NFP data. Ejected DUST shares at open for profit, day trade on NUGT for small scalp, left oil pre EIA Wed (thank God for stops!). No 3x for me this weekend, all out commodities except for longer-term silver short.

  14. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    We have readers here from all over this planet reading the reports. I love that! I’ve recieved emails from Australia, Austria, Germany, France, Great Britain , etc etc .

    I just want to wish everyone a safe happy long weekend. I think we all deserve it after the recent market movements.

  15. Cason
    Cason says:

    Alex, just wanted to tell you (again!) that I am really loving the reports. Even if I knew what I was doing (and I certainly do not), I’d still easily pay the small membership amount to gain such great knowledge every day.
    I have followed the PM market tick by tick by tick the last 3 years, and after reading A LOT, can tell you that you still have some of the freshest, most comprehensive, and original analysis that I have seen. Also aided by a neutral position (vice some of the perks bulls and bears out there that have a tint to their view). Thanks again and Happy 4th!

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