Tricky Times

I dont always do a Friday report, but things looked fairly interesting today in various markets. There is uncertainty in the waters below and it may be up to the Friday Jobs report to set things in motion.  May the picture above emphasize the need to honor stops so we can trade another day .

$TRAN-  We’ve discussed the Dow Theory and “sell In May” concepts.   Will Fridays jobs report bring  recovery or sell off?

The TRAN also made the 50/200 Death cross.

Lets look at the SPX…

SPX- The SPX, Dow Jones, and NADSDAQ have continued their whip-saw consolidation.  No big change yet  (Jobs report?)

$USD – We saw a possible reversal today.   The USD peaked on day 8 and sold off hard.   If we can take out the day 8 highs, we again may reason that  a new ICL was in  place 14 days ago. Breaking day 8 highs makes this likley a Right Translated daily cycle too.  If that high cannot be taken out soon, it could roll over sell off into next week .

$WTIC-   Oil continued to drop , now below $60 and back inside the channel of consolidation, it may drop to the 50sma. See the stochastics? room to drop if the dollar doesnt top? It may also do what it did on April 30 as we approach the 50sma.

The XLE and most Energy stocks continued to drop.   Disappointing, especially if we have to ‘stop out’ of some of our recent entries, as some break below the 50sma.  The XLE needs to turn higher very soon, it is quite oversold.

$NATGAS-  Did a quick slam down when the inventory report was released.  It broke my trend-line and then recovered immediately.  That was likely the lows.  Cycle-wise I’m not certain how long a daily cycle is on average, but this has been 27 days with a day 16 Peak  (right translated). Looking  for a move higher.

I mentioned yesterday that I also thought we may have had a 5 waves down move completed in $NATGAS, exhausting selling for now.

GOLD/SILVER/MINERS

Are you ready for more whip saw / sideways uncertainty?   This gets a little confusing  and I’ll explain why with Gold, Silver and the Miners .

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GOLD  –  The First daily cycle was Left Translated, but we made new highs with the second one anyways.  Triangle moves and sideways consolidations often  confuse cycles , they dont play by the rules.   You get shake outs and stop runs that cause people to short or go long at wrong times.  THIS consolidation is no exception, just look at it!     

Now GOLD appears to be on 23.  Left translated at this point.   Plenty of time to sell off into day 30 or so, but also early enough to reverse & put in a Daily Cycle Low tomorrow, after a shake out today.   It has reached oversold.  So this could go either way, but some Miners acted like they think it wants to go higher. ( You’ll see in the miners section)

Also with GOLD, a Break of $1168.40 is a failure, and during the next daily cycle you  could actually short it after 8 days or so.

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SILVER–   I’ve been showing this triangle, and we finally broke down inside. Silver held up very well despite the many negative factors ( some now present listed on the chart) .   WILL this trend line hold or even break marginally and then reverse, starting a new Daily cycle tomorrow? It too is oversold, but can remain that way. 

Here is where it doesnt make sense again.   The above charts show that GOLD has been selling off from day 11 to day 23.  Silver has been dropping too.  Meanwhile, Some Miners actually look like they are expecting Higher price .   ( These can fail if GOLD & SILVER plunge into a deeper DCL, but these are bullish looking charts).

CDE

NG

NEM

SA

 TRQ

  Those Miners and more look like they expect higher prices. They held up & put in reversals on a down day in Gold & SIlver.

   Draw your own conclusions , but it appears that before we hit the Final deep lows of the next ICL,  some of these miners may already have their lows in place.  If GOLD were to sell off and drop to $1000,  THESE are the ones you want to buy at that time.   Look at TRQ – Maybe it would pull back 50% or double bottoms,  that will be a great opportunity.

   For now, we’ve  see  crazy sideways moves in all sectors.  That has given us frustrating trading days in some areas, other areas not so bad.      Frustrating to see the Dollar sell off hard this week while Oil & Energy were also re-tracing .    Metals ( and GDX / GDXJ) selling down with the dollar and some miners holding up near recent highs.   SPX, DJIA, and NAZ remain range bound with a hint of bearishness in various ways.    We’ll have to wait and see what the Friday Jobs Report does  (if anything) to move these markets.    It has been tough and I have been ‘trading’ quickly and also stopped out of a few positions.  I’d rather be  Holding  my positions for a week or two in an uptrend.   We may be set up for that in OIL,Energy , and Natgas, but we’ll have to wait and see.   I just want the dust to clear and then we can enjoy more than a few hours or days of gains.   Have a great Friday and Weekend!

~ALEX