Sideways Moves
As mentioned in prior reports, sideways consolidations and bases can build up energy for larger directional moves. The Vix chart above ( click on it) seems to be basing and other sectors also have been moving in sideways in consolidations. If the VIX breaks out & runs eventually, the markets should correct. Lets take a closer look at recent activity and see if we can determine what it means.
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SPX– So far the dips have been bought and trading this pattern has been obvious, but is it due to change sometime soon?
Lets take a look at the NASDAQ…
NASDAQ – This just has the look of an eventual top forming, For now, they buy the dips.
OIL June 10 – I expected a mild pullback for a day or two
WTIC – nice and orderly, this looks to be finishing up that pullback with Mondays reversal.
NATGAS – from the weekend report, that could be the buy
NATGAS Monday– Nice Pop higher, looking for follow through
XLE– Still a pull back to the trend-line and 61.8% . Look how oversold it is.
UUP – rejected 2x at the key moving average. The dollar isn’t looking all that strong at this point, but is due for at least a bounce .
GOLD– Cycles indicates a bounce & then roll over near day 8 , because the last cycle was L.T. & failed by breaking below the prior DCL. We are on day 6, it shouldn’t be able to break & close above the 50sma for long . FED WED – proceed with caution.
Gold – Using Technical analysis, Oddly this looks quite Bullish! Volume increased and it broke and test the trend line. Oversold, MACD could cross higher. Lets see if it can break above that 50sma & close there. FED WED this week, proceed with caution.
SILVER– as I mentioned, the COT for SILVER did an amazing recovery. Silver is oversold. You would almost expect a short covering rally and I really love the set up on a few silver miners charts. Very interesting, but it is FED WED this week, and it looks ready to fly or die.
GDX – Did not fill that tiny gap that I mentioned it could Monday. It doesn’t have to , I just thought that it would to frustrate traders 🙂 I think the Miners want to break out higher here. If you follow cycles, expect maybe a tag of the 50sma and this will be weak.
The hard part of this report is that we have a Fed release Wednesday and that usually causes volatility at pivotal points. All of the markets look like they could be at pivotal points now. When I look at the set ups in Miners , some really look bullish. Silver stocks are looking bullish and with that SILVER COT drop and chart above, it feels like a ‘short cover rally’ should take place. This would go against what Cycles are indicating , so how can I recommend them if I dont feel they are low risk. Soon we will see how these play out.
Some silver stocks (See PAAS, AG, CDE, SSRI, AKG really nice set up,etc. etc.) look very bullish to me.
Tomorrow is the FED release, so I am going to just end this report by saying that its always a little higher risk with that volatility and markets possibly at turning points. I am still seeing SO MANY trade ideas, so I want to post them for experienced traders anyways. Understanding that it could get volatile mid week, proceed with caution in some areas. I am going to draw up a few more charts and post them along with the ones below soon. I will mention in the comments when I post them, and you can return to see some of these set ups. Have a great day & thanks for being here !
~ALEX
SZYM – looks to be stable and attempting to shake off the bears. Its a buy here or above the 50sma to prove itself.
For JD- I just wanted to post this possibility. The answer may be already baked in?
PHARMA/BIOTECH– these have been on Fire. Please see charts of ZIOP, IDRA, GALT, LBIO, EYES for just a few that are possible consolidation / set ups ready to go. Remember when I pointed out GALT and it POPPED strongly from $3 to $4 in one day? It has pulled back right to the 50sma.
I originally posted this on medical stock EYES in the $12 & $13 area.
EYES $14- it is currently $15.15 and looks ready to go to $20
I pointed out weeks ago cyber security stocks all setting up. That sector is on fire lately, all are higher now. Pullbacks should be bought. I posted charts of ZIXI, CYBER, HACK, VDTI , FEYE, ETC (Examples below)
ZIXI broke over $5.20 yesterday
VDSI past charts. I posted it at $22, $24, $26. It remains very bullish breaking to $32 yesterday. More upside?
VDSI wkly – Much more upside possible
I will post a few more soon...
YDLE WEEKLY looks interesting/ The Daily is either breaking higher or could act a little volatile for now. SO I recommend it for a watchlist
GOGO- looks to be attempting a break out higher from a bullish wedge
FMSA- I know, I know, I know…I have been pointing this out for 2 weeks. I think it will break higher & run nicely.
June 1
Now- pinched between the wedge & 50sma
I have never heard of VUZI, but the Wkly & Daily are bullish set ups at this point. AVG volume is not good, but increases on the bigger moves. so caution on light volume stocks. I like to see over 300,000 a day for trading.
WKLY – bull flag
DAILY– Breaking higher with volume
Alex,
I’m showing XLE as having broken its intermediate trend line and holding below the 50 dma. Is that not what you are seeing?
I just double checked. It did break that line, but looks like it may have reversed back above ( I used a weekly chart). Definitely on the brink. Thanks.
I should add that that little double dip is possibly a shake out move, because that chart is really oversold.
I’m not trading it, but if I was , I would still view it as a low risk entry at that trend line , but I’d keep a short leash on it ( Stop below the 61.8% retrace).
I’ve found quite often that a break below the intermediate trend line confirms that the intermediate top is in but it often bounces right back above the line to fake everyone out before moving back down.
Yeah, I’ve seen them as stop runs too( refresh for chart). Looks like we’ll wait and see, but like I said, Low Risk set up for a trade, because your stop is close below and its quite oversold.
The ICL did seem to top maybe after 3 or 4 months , but the second run up in 2010 was great after that trendline break & consolidate. I believe you think we are going to new lows , and you think OIL is going to new lows. I dont.
NBG Thanks muchly CF, that was what I saw too. On verra. To remind others: $600+ late 2007. Now a $ and pennies. I wonder if I’ll be singing “in a cavern in a canyon…” in a year or 5?
If Greece was going to default and leave Euro, wouldn’t it have done so by now? The Economist had it on its front cover in 2010! hence I rarely read The Economist.
I’ve been reading a mixed bag for that outcome. Seems like a dart toss “yes” or “no” at times
I saw one analyst say that by this Friday or at least within weeks , Greece will be out / have a Bank holiday over the weekend and convert currency , and start using the Drachma . Their goods will be cheap and it will improve their economy over time.
The chart is still undecided , that reversal on a weekly still has time to change to a bearish drop too.
Not that this is an economics forum but their goods would be super expensive for Greeks. Greece would turn hyperinflationary. I’d treble or quadruple my Greek shareholdings and seek to hedge against debasing currency.
Imagine investing in Israel’s st mkt in the 1990s and hedged against debasing Shekel. If I had (been around then) I wouldn’t be on this forum now… 🙂
Where would you be, sailing around your island? 🙂
I just posted a few more trade ideas ta the end of the report. Also I was away from my desk yesterday all day, and will be in & out today, so may not be able to promptly answer any questions. I know others here will try to help if they can. Have a good day.
Three Higher Highs, and Higher lows on USOIL. The glass is half full! Opptimistic
Glass 1/2 full , but Dont drink that stuff Bill, it tastes awful ; )
Some miners are looking good. I think AUY and EGO will really pop at some point. I still see the continuation of AB=CD down to $17.90 on GDX that will be my buy point with a possible upside to $20 sell point.
The miners set ups are killing me, because I see so many nice set ups on SILVER Stocks, but I know that if CYCLE timing kicks in for a daily cycle low or especially a drop to an ICL, these set ups just fail.
They look so good right now, however, and may be trade-able for the nimble.
I still remain firmly in the one huge drop for gold/miners camp. I am contrarian by nature so can’t figure out how it will do exactly what we all think it will do when it never does! But the one clue to me is that miners/gold/Silver just cannot get any traction upside. Can’t even hold on to a few $$ for more than a day. Barely not falling into the abyss isn’t overly bullish. I sure hope I am wrong and it suprises us all (except for Alex).
You mention 1 clue for you is they cant get traction upside.
This is the 3rd daily cycle….no one expected it to blast off upside. In fact, I mentioned one might even expect it to roll over around day 8 at the 50sma. Today is day 7 for Gold, we are near the 50sma.
Alex, exactly! I am frustrated for the opposite reason, it never presented a decent short opportunity (at least not during market hours). GDX remains well below the 50 and bleeding I was hoping for a quick move up allowing an entry, but it hasn’t presented itself that I have seen. May have to roll over without me. 🙁
Yes, agreed with your analysis and thanks for presenting. I can’t imagine getting long at this point anywhere in the complex.
WRES?
MDW?
GDP is dead.
Too much debt.
Has anyone noticed what ERN is,doing? Cut more than 50% in two weeks. Back in the low 4’s. Got back into SZYM. I think it’s building strength to get through the 50DMA.
Yes, and thats a perfect example of why one shouldnt chase a run away stock. I would have expected it to bounce at the 50sma but then it just put in a bear flag & continued down. ouch.
On another note : FSM is doing what AG, AKG, PAAS, did
ERN 200DMA is at 3.46. Might be a good entry near that if it gets there. Got to 3.82 today.
Unreal, but an A-B-C lands on the 200sma . ( refresh for a chart ) – I am going to lighten up going into the FED Wednesday release however, so I wont be taking it as a trade. A little too much volume on the drop for my comfort too
Somebody knows something………
Nicely done UGAZ!
Hanging Tough
EEM bounce for a swing? I took a small position. (EDC works too)
3m:10m system Stocks, Bonds, Gold This looks amazing! https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CHoyjvEWgAAsTjd.png
Miners selling off all day, while /GC grinding up. (not good)
No, there is just absolutely nothing to like there.
Beware the 3rd daily cycle could roll over left translated by day 8…today is day 7 . Fed Wednesday is day 8 for Gold
I continue to like gas and crude here. But energy plays still not working out – REXX, SFY, BAS, GDP now all well below 50. Worse, they don’t respond when oil does move up. Looks like it’s time to find another sector.
Harvested profits on MOBL.
Excellent Call Alex ! Was/Is in a very nice Base.
Nice pop today/ nice trade ken
Nicely done on MOBL. didnt’ have this one on my radar.
BTU Unbeliveable move from 6..is CHK any better for Long Term Alex? Also want TWTR as Long Term at some point..
All 3 of those have been sold off deeply and may or may not be done. I’d recommend patience until you see some kind of buying interest.
It is best at this point not to try to catch the exact lows, but instead keep an eye on them and to allow them to break above the 10sma and close there . Then you have at least that small sign of buying ( still may only may be short cover) and can start small & build a position , placing a stop below the lows. For now, they bounce, tag the 10sma , and roll back over to new lows.
See BTU & CHK with only a 10sma
Jumped in EEM also LeChiffre. Nice Call ! Tight Stop though, below Trend line.
Nice Ken! Tight stop indeed. Let’s see what FED day brings.