33 Charts

The charts have lots to say,  lets just look at the charts….

SPX– I have been watching a wedge pattern for months.  It looks a lot like it  broke down & back-tested  (Orange Arrow)  It needs to break higher real soon or it will continue to just roll over.

 

NASDAQ   – has been strong , but looks like it wants to roll over too .  I see a reversal candle Friday , is it ready to bounce? The sideways  chop and whip saw action may continue.

 

The IWM looks bullish on the weekly chart

 

IWM DAILY – Not so bullish, we see  mixed  signals between the wkly & daily.  Did it break down from a wedge & back test?

 

$TRAN –  this is part of the Dow Theory , and it is still a break down & back test.  Next week should tell us a lot. There is some divergence in recent lows.

 

The USD WKLY–   almost recovered the 10 WMA. It was a decent sign of weakness and strength all in the past couple of weeks.

 

$USD–  Amazing bounce off of fib #’s lately.

 

WTIC  WKLY–   All you hear about mid week is how dreadful oil sold off.  Really?  6 weeks closed at almost the same price on a weekly chart.

 

With OIL selling below $60 – People in various blogs & CNBC were calling for that drop to below $40 again. I pointed out the 2009 lows with these charts showing that 1 day slam downs happened then too.  In 2009 , OIL remained above the 50sma.

Also note in 2009 – OIL bottomed in Feb & 2 months later was going sideways for weeks .  It slammed down & recovered repeatedly.  Therefore we should expect volatility until the next leg up  ( or down ) takes hold.  I say we go higher. .

 

2015 WTIC– reversal at the lower channel & the 50sma area.  Was that the lows 7 days ago?  It looked like it,  and that reversal Friday was a low risk buy.  A stop below the 50sma works.   For confirmation,  look for a break above the upper channel line to end the consolidation.A break below the 50sma and I think OIL sells off.

 

 

 NATGAS– this is the chart from Thursday .   Price is still in this area at $2.59 on that trend-line.  Cycle-wise I would think that this has to be the daily cycle low forming.  We need a bounce above that 50SMA for confidence in a second  upward move..

I bought some Energy Friday because it is in a low risk area.  For example,   GDP.  A stop can be placed right below recent lows, and I saw nice volume coming in.   I mentioned it in the comments, but not in an “ALERT” , because OIL needs to prove itself.  I am a trader and take trades as they come,  others may need to have a “proper set up”to avoid continually stopping out.   So  If OIL starts moving higher, I will post some trade set ups this week.

The CRB put in a strong reversal Friday above recent lows. 

 

GOLD / SILVER / MINERS

 

I have a lot to say, but I dont want it to get confusing. GOLD has been frustrating for traders,  moving sideways for weeks.  I dont expect that to change too much this week.  We could be in the area timing wise where we get a DCL  ( Daily Cycle Low).   That would end the 2nd daily cycle, and now the 3rd daily cycle would unfold,  but I dont expect a lot of upside .    1. We are in a left translated cycle.  2. We broke the recent lows, a sign of stop runs at times, but also weakness in a 2nd daily cycle.   3.  SO For this 3rd daily cycle, We could bounce for 8 days or so and then roll over.  I’m not playing this, but may short a weak bounce if that’s all we get  ( Dust).  The hard part is Miners are holding up rather well so far.

GOLD –  Doesnt this set of daily cycles look very similar to the last intermediate cycle?   1.   Run upward from lows  2. Spike a peak Green arrow  3. Then roll over to a DCL.  I see a reversal candle Friday  ( Red circle).  I just dont think we break to new highs above the green arrow this time.  TIME WILL TELL.

 

GOLD has become much harder to trade after an ICL is in place with all of this whip-saw / sideways  action.

Notice below – Golds last daily cycle.  (  Call this GOLD CHART #16 for reference )It looked like a DCL on day 27 in April.  It Popped higher with strong price action for 2 day , then rolled over to day 32 low to shake out all the longs.   We are at day 24 and that strong reversal looks like a DCL…is it?  One thing is obvious,  the day 32 lows were broken Friday and this indicates that this daily cycle will likely roll over early. It may be tough to trade unless you are in front of your screen.

 

With that in mind, I expect this could play out, BUT dont be surprised if GOLD doesnt get above the last peak around $1232 . I drew a sell off toward last  Nov’s lows that would come as the 3rd or even a 4th daily cycle falls towards its daily cycle low  into an ICL.  Will Gold crash to that $1000 level?  Everyone and their families expect it…I just dont know.

Since I have a few other things that I want to discuss with Silver & Gold,  let me just quickly show the GDX for now.  It dropped and doesnt look all that positive the way I’m seeing  it.  It is oversold , so  it could bounce here, but watch it.   Tag the 50sma? THAT is where I may try a Dust Trade.   Keep in Mind Miners  (Especially GDXJ  and Juniors)  have been holding up better and seem relatively stronger.  the trade may not be so great, but also if Gold were to sell off deeply,  Miners may bottom at prior lows.

 

SILVER-  I was looking at that SILVER COT.   I mentioned how it is as high as it was at prior tops, but this weekend I was studying it a bit more. When it was this high in July of last year, it ended up with Silver plunging down.  Many expect that this time,  but in my mind, I wanted to know if it a guarantee?  Does that Silver C.O.T. mean it has to plunge? I have been watching Silver hold up fairly well and Miners holding up well on days when Gold sells off.  I at least wanted to look into possibilities and likelihoods. Here is what I found that I think is at least interesting or note worthy.

 

YES  it could plunge, no it doesn’t have to.    I merged the Silver chart with the Silver  COT to how you what I found.  Please look at 1,2,3 .

1.   July 2014  we saw the same Silver C.O.T. Reading and Silver dropped BIG –  Down $7

2.  Jan  2015   we saw the same Silver C.O.T Reading  and  Silver only dropped $3 and put in an early ICL

3.  May 19        we had the same Silver C.O.T. and silver has dropped $1.5 so far.  Most keep pointing to the COT ofr silver as the reason they expect a huge plunge.   This view helps me to be satisfied knowing that –   Silver Could drop fast, doesn’t have to.

 

   Finally, I am doing additional research in the GOLD / SILVER market and thought that I would have it finished by this weekend. I’m not quite there yet.  I want to get this out Sunday night and I will  continue searching other areas that I have begun to look at, and report findings later.

   So I expect a possible bounce here in Precious Metals,  but am a tad leery since the last bounce ( scroll back up & see reference chart #16 ) had that run higher and then dropped into the real DCL , which was a stop run.  That was a very devious market shake out . I am wanting to play Energy long and just see how the Precious Metals markets react going forward.  There may be a better short position or Much better long position coming up at the next ICL.  Last weekend I said that I thought that the week would reveal more , yet again  we only went sideways in the SPX, DJIA, and NAZ.   Maybe this week we can see a break out or break down that clarifies things better.

   There have been some exceptional moves for Active Traders in charts  ( See Some that I have been pointing out like   CMCM setting  up again,  NQ broke out,  FEYE Broke & ran, etc etc ).  There are more.  I will add a list at the bottom of this report for active traders,  some that  I mentioned with charts last weekend & mid week  still look good.  I hope to see the market choose a direction to gain confidence in longer term plays too.  Thanks for being here, I hope this report helps you to see what is happening in various sectors better.

 

~ALEX

 MTDR- Quite a bullish chart .  Buy now, buy tags of 50sma , and break to new highs.

EYES-

 

Check put FOOD charts   GTIM, CALM, ZOES, and here is DENN

DMND – Possible long term BUY & HOLD.  See a 5 yr wkly to understand why.

I was just going to post a list of set ups, but I will re-post my older chart too.  Please look them up now and  you can see how they are playing out.   Some are still buys, but as for extended ones? Look for a pullback.

 

Security doing well ,  Look at CYBR, HACK, FEYE , VDSI , etc

 

 Watching  FIVE  ( for a pullback entry) ,JD- Buy now,  YRCW, UTIW, CMGE?   ADHD broke out & reversed back down.  If it moves higher, its a buy

Some of my past chart set ups rocketed higher,  others broke down .  PLEASE USE STOPS (  In low risk entries ,  like right above a trend line or 50sma, I prefer somewhat loose or mental stops) .  Best wishes / Happy trading.