A Little More Of The Same

Not much has changed since the weekend report, so lets just review the charts and I’ll have additional comments at the end of this report.

SPX – June 18 I had pointed out that in the recent past,  the break to new highs can just roll over

Yesterday we woke up and futures were strong. Would we gap open over 100 points on the Dow, 25 in the Spx, etc.  and just run free from this sideways action into uncharted territory?  Not yet, some selling that capped the gains . These can be topping type candles, but they dont have to be.

It might help to see what the IWM, RUT, BIB did…

While the DJIA and NASDAQ both closed under highs too, the BIB, RUT, and IWM closed at new highs.   We’ll have to see if the new highs hold, and if they do it is likely that  the other markets can follow.  These break outs can also run for a bit and then back test, allowing the SPX , NAZ , etc time to break out too.

USD  –  The dollar has a bullish set up and is in the timing to produce a low.  How the dollar moves higher from here could be important. This move higher may send Gold lower, but to what degree remains to be seen.  Above $95 is a bullish break out

WTIC – More of the same here sideways action.  It needs to get moving, this consolidation is taking a long time and the MACD is somewhat losing momentum

XLE– I had pointed out a possible break & back test on the XLE.  Could the XLE improve from here and move higher?

XLE–  It actually did improve Monday and moved higher, closing slightly above the 10sma.  Lets look for follow through.

NATGAS– sideways moves are everywhere in these markets. Boring traders and wearing many out. It is still a bullish set up , but who makes money in sideways moves?  That was a Mini -Tiny reversal candle yesterday, closing off of the lows.  It needs to regain the 50sma at $2.75.

GOLD SILVER & MINERS

Recently Gold & Silver seem to have been marching to the beat of a different drum. I have mentioned that using cycles we would expect a drop soon in the precious metals area.   Monday Gold fell almost $20, but notice what SIlver and Miners did.

GOLD –  Rejected at the 200sma,  it dropped $20 and closed down $14+. 

SILVER – Silver sits on support and did not break down with Gold.  In fact, Silver closed up 9 cents and is being squeezed between this support and under the 50 & 200sma.   I did not expect Silver to hold up with Gold down $20 at one point.  A break below $15.70 would be significant.

GDX– Remember the days when Miners would get trashed if Gold was down $5?  GDX was only down 31 cents on lighter volume.  It was rejected at the 20sma last week and does look like it wants to sell off, but its confusing in a way.  It is not in sync with Gold .  Gold is on day 11,  GDX is only day 3?    I am just watching this unfold, I am not shorting Miners at this point.

GDXJ- As mentioned, GDXJ (Juniors)  is acting stronger than Gold & GDX.  This actually looks more bullish than bearish.  I am just watching for now.

   I expected OIL to break out higher by now, instead it is in a long sideways consolidation.  It can be a little frustrating.   I took positions in some OIL stocks as they pulled back above the 50sma weeks ago and I have been stopped out of most as mentioned in prior reports.   Instead of just jumping right back in,  there is nothing wrong with sitting in cash and patiently waiting for the next proper set up.  The next step could actually be waiting for OIL to start moving out of this sideways move .  You dont make money waiting,  but you dont lose money and get frustrated  by repeatedly getting stopped out .  Or Keep positions small.     The XLE actually perked up a tad yesterday and some stocks look a bit better, but I am watching for now until I get further confirmation in Oil itself.    GOLD may be setting up for the trade of the year this summer,  but that will take time.    It could play out in a few different ways,   so I’m going to be also focusing on this area too.  This can be the kind of trade where you can just buy & hold for a few weeks. Very profitable.  We dont want to be too early if the selling picks up, so it needs monitoring as it plays out and we can buy somewhere around the next lows.   Thanks for being here, please read on below.

~ALEX

    I just want to mention something here again before closing.

  As a trader,  I   know that many here are experienced active traders,  I have been asked to point out bullish looking set ups in other areas.  I had a nice discussion in email conversation with a reader here yesterday about trading.  He thought that those trade set ups could be  “information overload”.    ‘How can we take so many trades and keep up with them?’   I unerstand what he is saying , so  I explained this:

   Those trade set ups  are not for everyone.  Thats why I usually say ,  ” For the more experienced traders in front of their screen …”  before posting those.    For some traders here, they know how to look at a chart and are in front of the screen all day.  They want to see a few different trade ideas , so they can choose the one they like best.  Some are experienced with inverse H&S, others buy break outs to new highs, while others like bases that break higher from oversold.   I am by no means saying,   “here are 10 trades, put a little money into each of them”.    I am saying,  “If you trade daily and are experienced,  maybe even being in front of the screen all day?  You may want to see these bullish set ups.”    It also can be a learning lesson.  Put 5 on a watch list and watch them.  3 may take off and run , while the other 2 linger or even fail.  Study why & learn, its an education in trading.  If you dont have time to do that ,  then that part of the report is not for you to trade.  Those set ups are short term and need to be watched.  

I hope this helps!   That said….  For experienced traders:   I was looking at taking a small position while waiting for OIL to do something constructive.  I had on my list XOMA, SNSS, IDRA.    XOMA took off, and I ended up buying IDRA.  I like the set up and the sector is bullish.

You may also want to look at CDXS, SSNI, NVAX, AMRN, ASPS, ZIOP, KITE, AKBA, RPTP

I almost bought AMRN as a short term “Long” position  ( still may)