Watch Lists and Set Ups

First, I apologize that this wont be out before the market open, I think I had food poisoning last night and it was a rough ride. I am looking at the markets and stock set ups that have been discussed and wanted to just review a few things to watch for going forward.  We’ll start with our market recap ..

SPX  futures are down as I write, but there is still upside possibility short term, if this breaks out.

That being said, there is still this reminder…

The Bearish Rising WEDGE is still in the bigger picture , so upside may also be limited.

NASDAQ – notice the consolidation boxes, then a run higher.  Please notice that after each run higher, it rolled over.  That is why I am watching that wedge as a top  (shown in prior reports).

I posted this chart on APRIL 10 for GOLD.  It cautioned that we might just be doing a back test of the yellow line and then a rounded top / drop.  The drop would bring us to a good buying opportunity.

GOLD April 22 –  we have gone sideways and may be starting the drop into a Daily Cycle low. If gold is on Day 25 , the cycle length can be anywhere from now to 30+ days.  I want to see the purple dotted line hold to show that March was the ICL.

APRIL 9 –  I pictured  GDX popping up to tag the 50sma, then drop. I drew this & cautioned not to buy GDX unless it closes above $20

So far, GDX has done that.  Tagged the 50sma near $20 & dropped. It could drop further, so I am not buying the dip until we get a reversal.

OIL & NATGAS are the same as yesterdays report. I expected a back test from OIL , and our energy stocks are consolidating recent gains  / basing out / etc.

I have liked SOLAR stocks since January and have mentioned from time to time that I am trading them and that they are actually in an uptrend.  I don’t hear people talking about them, but if you look up SCTY, TSL, JKS, CSIQ, JASO, etc –  these are very bullish up-trends.  They can be BUY & HOLD candidates for those that like to invest and leave their $$ parked somewhere.   2 examples below:

SOL for example- I have traded this, but it is starting an up-trend I.M.O.

TSL –  Runs up, consolidates, runs up..currently consolidating.  See the chart for other tickers to look at.

Scroll back up & notice how SOL formed a ‘base’  first . Many times the base process is difficult to endure as a trader.  I believe we are seeing Bases form in many commodities , including our energy stocks. These can lead to great gains when they break higher. Back in Feb I was pointing out the action in Uranium stocks .  They were forming bases and Popping up, and dropping back.

Yesterday in the comments section, Ken pointed out URA ( Uranium ETF) , so I began looking at URZ , URRE, UEC, URRE, DNN and they all were taking off higher.  They may be breaking out of their bases and you want to watch  (Watchlist?) and see if they start trending higher too, like the solars have. 

  My charts from Feb / March showing those bases  were as follows

This is URZ & DNN now, you can check URRE, UEC, URG, etc to see how they are all suddenly moving higher.  This may be the start of a new trend, so we’ll keep an eye on it, and it lso present possible good trades on the next pullback.

I am going to release this report now just to get it out there    (Its almost 10 a.m.). I am then going to add just a couple more charts of interest, but you will not get an email alert  when I do , so please check back in a while to see those additional charts. Thanks again for your patience, I am still a bit feverish and chilly and may not be in on the comments section much today.  Have a great day !

~ALEX

Interesting charts

I have been watching CLF, VALE, CAT, and a few other stocks that would indicate to me that possibly a low in Metals/ Mining  could be approaching.   I have seen POPs in VALE in the past, but the weekly now indicates that VALE and CAT may have bottomed.  I expect them to do well from this point. This is what I am seeing …

VALE has repeatedly popped in the past, but along with this break out …

We have the WKLY VALE chart – possible close above the 10wma this week.

I posted this chart of CAT  on April 10, it has moved higher since then. Watch for it to start trending higher too.

CAT NOW- And it just gapped open higher this a.m.

This next part is somewhat of a reminder, maybe even a lesson about stock movement.   Often I will recommend buying a ‘Base’ or a break out from a base. When I do , I then say that I expect this to move much higher over time.  Some people misunderstand that to mean that we are going straight up to a certain price target, but that is not what I expect.  I have bought MINERS coming out of the 2008 bases and made 500%…but it may have taken a year or two.  WHY? 

Stocks often run up, then consolidate  (And that can take many weeks) . Then they break out and run up again, then they can consolidate for weeks.  We are experiencing this in ENERGY now , so I wanted to show you how this works in a couple of stocks that I recommended a while back .  This basically shows that there are times of boredom & times of excitement.   Eventually , if the trending higher remains in tact, rewarding.

CMCM–  Dec 26 –  I LOVED this very tight base about to break out  (Price $15.50), we could Double I said, reaching $30.

CMCM  JAN 5 .  Breaking out and now near $17- so now do we get a straight shot up to $30?  No, there should be periods of consolidations .

CMCM  – Now . Please notice the huge period of consolidation after running up to $20, back down to $16!  Then straight up to $25.  Now bull-flagging  between $21.75 & $24.  The break out from here could take it to….$30.

The point is that from Dec to maybe May, the price will double from $15 to $30,  but there are times of consolidation that can be very hard to ride, certainly hard to trade. We may experience that in ENERGY as OIL tries to recover from its recent sell off.  Also that is possibly what we have been seeing with GOLD/MINERS in their sideways activity .

I also traded a stock  & did so real time on this website last summer called VIMC.  It was breathtaking as it ran from $3 to $12.  It then started a HUGE consolidation .  HUGE !  Forming an inverse H&S that I pointed out here . The buy was actually $9 ish

In early March I was trying to show how these periods of consolidation can lead to big moves. I considered this a BUY & HOLD.

VIMC now.  Boom!

   So my point is that it is not easy being patient while working through a consolidation  ( or building a base) . Often there is no idea how long it will last , but the longer the base or consolidation, often the longer the move will be upward. Look at that right shoulder on VIMC above. There was even a false break out in early March, then it sold off  from  $10 to $8.   Some try to just buy the break out, but often you get those type moves.  If you can catch the main run however, it is quite rewarding.

  Currently we are seeing large bases forming in Uranium stocks, many Solar stocks had them, Energy stocks are basing and so on.  Traders are making good gains short term, and longer term , large %-Gains would be achieved if OIL recovers and some of these return to former highs.

SFY-  just a reminder that the moves higher will not be straight up