Taking The Lead
FED WEDNESDAY came and went and it rocked many of the areas that we anticipated. We have been invested in Energy stocks for some time, so we actually benefited from the upward push that many of the energy stocks received. Along with Energy and a few other areas of interest, we have also recently discussed the precious metals area again, and I sent out an intraday alert on Tuesday regarding the set ups that I had been watching. So why the puppy with the leash? Notice this…
GOLD
You can see that Gold had started breaking upward this week, and Wed it reversed into the close. Now notice Silver…
SILVER also reversed. I am pointing out in these charts that it is normal to have 3 days up, 2 down , etc. We have seen this before at the start of a 2nd daily cycle run higher.
More importantly, after the FED, GDX slammed down and even went RED, but then it recovered. THAT means that MINERS are leading Gold and that is what we want to see at this point. Miners appear to have been being accumulated , with higher lows even when GOLD & SILVER are Red. THAT is what that Puppy is all about. He is looking for leadership, and now it seems that we are seeing that with Miners.
GDX– is breaking from an Ascending Wedge pattern while Metals pulled back. ( It can back test).
This is an example of a real stock that broke from a similar pattern. To be honest, they are more reliable in the middle of an uptrend, but they basically indicate a lack of selling as the lows are ‘higher lows’ during the consolidation . The break higher can cause ‘shorts’ to cover too.
I will discuss a little more on Metals /Miners later. Right now I want to say that the ENERGY STOCKS really perked up and look good . I sold a couple of mine just last week 
when they broke my mental stops. HERO, NADL, 1/2 of SFY. Now they look good again, so we just re-deploy the funds into another set up.
.
OIL– Looks great and continues to act bullishly. It wants to break out higher again.
NATGAS – Finally going to join the party? The first chart was what we were looking for APRIL 24. The second chart was WEDNESDAY.
The XLE & OIH continue to look bullish too.
SO MANY Energy stocks are perking up & acting correctly. AREX, BAS, EXXI, NOG, KEG, GDP, SFY, LGCY, etc. I cant list them all, but lets look at a few points of interest.
REXX dove below the 50sma and stopped me out in March. Little did I know this large pattern would show up. I got back in above the 50sma, and This could get very Bullish. These patterns are usually a form of ‘Bases” that build steam to drive higher.
I mentioned that I like the look of LPI this week, because of the higher lows . I said this looked ready to break higher at $14+…
This is today , it looks like it is breaking higher now.
SFY- Tagged the 50sma and turned higher.
NOG– I wanted to point out how the “Dips” can be scary, but they are necessary. Nog landed on the 50sma and turned higher.
NOG WKLY – you can see that if you can ride the dips ( or buy the dips) , in time this recovery can be rewarding. Almost 100% now, 200+% later. Patience pays off.
More on the MINERS
I posted charts in the past 2 reports, and I showed that SIL ( silver stocks – I posted a chart of EXK too) broke out a couple of days ago. They actually pulled back a bit Wednesday. Feeling strongly that the DCL is in, and now seeing that the Miners are leading GOLD & SILVER…then we can buy the dips at reasonable areas of pullback.
EXK
KGC – Didnt sell off Wednesday, breaking from a tight formation.
SAND – thats a nice set up with a low risk entry
Yesterdays report showed the 2 charts of NG & EGO . NG is strong. Both of these stocks closed even higher today ( to further show that Miners could be leading ).
IAG – similar base set up to EGO, but IAG is breaking higher. Ego should follow.
I had a small discussion in the comments section yesterday where someone mentioned that they wanted a small ( under $1) stock , because they can move well in the second daily cycle. They are possibly higher risk , but I have done well with many. I said …“Look at BAA on a weekly, above the 10WMA. that is what I look for”. let me show you BAA , and why I bought some as small part of my portfolio.
BAA WKLY– Basing since Aug really, and holding that 10WMA tightly now. This wkly chart is as of Wed, so Volume will gain 2 days and hopefully price will rise.
BAA DAILY – Rounding base pattern with another Familiar looking pattern? See above with GDX
So there are many great looking set ups out there. Energy stocks want to go higher. NATGAS looks to be joining in. Did you see a chart of the $CRB yesterday? Very nice. And as for GOLD/SILVER/MINERS? It seems that the DCL is in and its still early in this 2nd daily cycle. The charts for Miners are set up nicely , and some Silver stocks POPPED first and are dipping down now. You can buy the pullback (PAAS, SSRI,, EXK, SIL, etc ) There is usually a 1/2 cycle low in the middle of the run up too, so you could add there.
I am going to assume that this report is enough for the week. Why not Re-Read Tuesdays mid day alert for a refresher if needed and Wed Mornings report. The Fed is behind us for now and we have Today (Thursday) and Friday to trade, I expect further nice moves could take place in Energy & Miners. I will have a weekend report to review how things look after that.
Also remember that its an Earnings period. Its good to check on that before buying . Earnings reports can be damaging. STEEL stocks for example: AKS did good, X did not. With that in mind…
Best wishes and STAY FROSTY!
~ALEX
Alex, thanks for sharing and getting this out early. Miners holding against Gold pull back and some $$ recovery was pretty right! Oil breaking out. I lost my SFY, got me in a stop run last week. Still in KEG, but they disappointed some in earnings overnight, will be interesting today. Looking at price by volume, once free and clear of $58, not too much resistance until $62 then $67 on oil (but not saying it will shoot right there either).
$68-$80 is FIB retracement levels
you are a must read. Great reports!!
+1
Thanks – I appreciate that. It has been enjoyable for me too.
I really like the way things are shaping up in the commodities sector. Gold lows in Nov and OIL lows , followed by the CRB, DAG, Maybe NATGAS next. SO many beaten down stocks can offer good gains going forward.
my sentiments exactly…part of my daily ritual…coffee&chartfreak… tho not gonna lie, i miss his audio reports … they were even better [if u can believe it…right?] lol ;o)
I know, it was easier for me really. Some had trouble listening, so I had to do both – so some could read & others could listen, and it took too long.
I should try Video reports
+1 on the video reports! 🙂
Yes, I need to look into that. Maybe I’ll do audio for the weekend report this time too.
yay
LOL
Oh , how nice. Maria included a video report too : )
I’m on the west coast so it’s the first thing I do when I wake up in the morning. Actually sometimes it’s tied with going to the bathroom.
OOOOOOOOO .. T .. M … I … CARL!! lol lol
Audio reports!?!? Man, I missed out by joining later…
I see the jobs report this morning may have put a damper on miners uptrend or is it a buying opportunity. Sitting on my hands, although tempted to take a position in DUST.
This is going to be a nasty open for metals and miners. I’ll be stopped out of everything within a few seconds; Wil try again Monday maybe
GOLD dropping this morning, Miners down premarket. May be a buying opportunity. I got stopped out of NUGT when the FED started talking.
GDX : I’m seeing $20.17 on pretty huge volume for pre-mkt.
Still above the 50 & even the 10sma , so its not technically bad, but GOLD will open under both, so it may be a step aside & wait & see how it plays out.
This is NOT an orderly pullback, this is ugly. I didn’t thin such a reaction to one data point. I got stopped on NUGT for a healthy loss.
I think it’s a relatively low risk entry point for miners. If gold drops below 1174 then it sure seems like a very LT failed DC (strange, and unexpected as that would be here). And of course a place to stop out of gold/miners.
It’s never easy being in the miners!
Shake out???
So far EWZ has a nice looking pull back going on here. Support in the 35-36 area with the 20 DMA coming up there as well.
NQ may be finding support on the backtest of the down trend line. Could be a very nice entry point here for those looking.
WATCH the SILVER MINERS. They popped and lead the way higher. They started down yesterday. If this is just a quick flash drop, they should turn higher first
EXK, SSRI, SIL, PAAS, etc
Maybe light at the end of this tunnel … or is that a train coming?
May be getting traction here! Quite the nail biter, eh?
Gold is sure making it interesting here. Question is, do you play the technicals of the miners themselves, with notion that they could hold up while gold takes another dip, or just cue off of gold’s technicals (which is usually the way to go). Hmmmm
SZYM just made an awesome move…it dropped 10 cents and then quickly reversed higher.
I was looking at it when it moved. Took all of about 5 seconds to go from -2 cents to +16. I don’t know if the market makers on that stock are trying to scare the shorts out or scare everyone but surely something is up with it. Yesterday maybe they had a big block lower to help some shorts cover.
I know, watching it real time you see a lot, but then you take a look at a daily chart and its somewhat orderly – similar to the sell off in March.
Of course, I did have to adjust my Moving Averages again to the less steep rise . It is more like the 20sma than the 13 now. : )
CLNE just made the same type move. Up 50 cents from its low very quickly.
Wow, I saw it when it was down. What a strong stock this turned out to be’
Yeah, unfortunately all I’ve done is admire it from afar! LOL
Watching intraday charts can be hazardous to your health! LOL
Nice
Good Morning,
FWIW,
I am Harvesting some profits of my basket of Oil stocks. I do not want to get too greedy here.
I still am holding about half of that basket but raising stops to protect profits just in case this 5th wave in USO has more legs in it.
I will sell before each oil stock Earnings for sure.
Its not a bad idea, we’ve all given good gains back before.
I have been somewhat looking at trading them as individuals. (USO/ UCO/ UWTI with OIL though)
I am looking at OIL cycle -wise and it almost seems that a DCL may only be a small drop ( A-B-C style ?) to the break out at $54 ish.
If thats the case , and then another leg up, some of these energy stocks may just keep consolidating sideways and stair step higher.
For example: LGCY sideways consolidation + CUP/HANDLE on a 6 month chart. and the REXX inverse H&S
I concur Alex.
I think that DCL will be my A B C wave 4 Down. I will start building another oil stock basket at that point.
Sold half of my KEG early at highs to lock in with markets down. How about that afternoon move in WTI? Will continue walking up my UWTI stops each day, when she reverses I’ll cash out.
BVN, a good looking miner is green here. Staying above its 200 DMA. One to watch, or buy
SBGL is another that looks good.
PLEASE REFRESH TO SEE THESE 2 CHARTs. (Click on them)
Its just a reminder of what normal moves CAN look like in GDX . We dont want to get emotional and make quick decisions, we look at charts for clues.
Is that happening now? Its hard to know real time, but this happens at almost every ICL/DCL. We get a 2 day surge, and then a drop. Time will tell.
Yep, they’re nothing if not violently volatile.
And all we’ve had so far is a very typical test of the 10 dma in an uptrend.
Check out UGAZ ( NATGAS)
NG-The train is leaving the station 😉
Holy crap
Now to stalk an entry pt (after having been shaken out on the new low GRRRR)
What vehicle are you using to play natty gas?
I have used UGAZ for quick trades (And stocks XCO, CHK, & UPL etc)
How about BOIL?…or is decay an issue? (I’m not quick trading it)
The “decay” is just leverage costs. And leverage works for you in an uptrend and against you in a down trend (in a big way) or trendless market. So if we can get NG trending up again it’s worth the cost for the extra gain. All caveats about leverage risk, position size etc. apply.
Understood. Thanks!
Yeah, UGAZ. It’s a tough space if you don’t trade futures. The companies won’t necessarily track with the commodity.
What about UNG
Not peppy enough. 🙂 Besides, you have to deal with the bloody K-1s at tax time.
Thanks. Yes. Im getting tired looking at it.
I got a K-1 when I traded ZSL, and I got it in May, well after I filed my taxes !! Hated that.
NATGAS right at the 50 dma right now, question is will it just pop further from here, squeezing shorts some more and then pull back, or consolidate down here, backtesting the 20 dma.
Patients ALEX…… you learnt it me, and it WILL paid it back
Hoeraaa!!!
I hope that means U are in NATGAS : )
YEP…. bought it at 1000 for 1.93 – and 1000 for 2.15
I just sold half my position at my buy in point. Have had,it awhile. Still holding the other half now in profit.
Geurt, help me learn patience, too! 🙂
Natural Gas finally popped. Hopefully it’ll hold this time. VALE just dumped down to the 10DMA. What do you think Alex? That one is moving fast.
You could try it at the 10sma, it is a 50% retrace from the April lows, but There is a chance it can drop to the 50sma on a A-B-C down type move. Tough when they move so far so fast, they can consolidate a bit after a pull back, once they finally do.
Finally, Earlier this week it didn’t look good……….
While eyes are on PM’s….natty Gas anyone?….
Scroll down Eric, eyes were on NATGAS : )
DOH!!!
I actually didnt see ur chart until I refreshed. Thats what we wanted , a break out . : )
Its funny how AWESOME the URANIUMS look on the way up, and how mortal they look on the pullback
URZ, URRE, UEC, DNN
alex, does EXK today looks like a buyable pull back? GOLD dip looks great but in miners if its not ETF it aint fun to buy & unfortunetly i am too busy to baby sit 2x 3x along with ugaz. So i was thinking of low risk play that moves along with gold/silver side by side:)
Sorry, my mother stopped in and I took her to lunch.
I do think EXK looks good. Pull up a chart with only a 10sma. It dropped down & bounced right off of it. That looked pretty good, though it could do it again Friday, I’d start a position.
I held melt EXK, still believing we trend higher from here.This was a better but point than sell point but had to honor stops on leveraged products!
BTW NBG MACD just gone +ve and still moving http://schrts.co/I91cfa
I reckon it’s only just starting a multi year move
It could do some backing and filling here though and build a base. I’m not inclined to jump in right here.
Doesn’t mean it won’t shoot to the moon, and if you believe it’s a multi year move (I sure don’t know what the future of Greece is myself) and can weather a 20%ish drawdown (plausible in a basing scenario) then sure maybe it’s a good buy here.
I’ve been building last week and early this week. 200D appears on the cards as a 1st step to long term. On verra.
I had GNW on my watchlist and came close to starting a position, then yesterday, boom. Insurance likes the notion of higher int rates. One to watch as it looks real good technically.
I am beginning to build a positing in the PM’s via options with two stocks:
SLW 1/16 Calls
GG 1/16 Calls
Clearly defined risk. Risk ratio very good. imho.
Alex, it looks like we got our answer on whether KITE has bottomed, LOL.
yeah, I’m gonna say not yet ; )
IBB not looking so good after that day it fell from the sky 4 days ago either.
So looking at our main components of GDX.
-NEM looks good,
-ABX looking ok ,
-GG – does not look good at all
GG missed their earnings forecast earlier today 1cent Vs 12 Cents consensus forecast
Yeah, and NEM & ABX announced this recently too.
GG was the weak sister during the Mar pull back and Apr consolidation also! Get it together Goldcorp!
Thanks Alex.
GG does not look good but might play catch up. Maybe ! I will be keeping my exposure low though.
I may add a few calls with NEM and ABX.
Alex, thanks for EXK reply! i have an eye on OIH – wondering if that would fill the gap to 41-43,but bit confused since oil is not pulling back to take a position-Any thoughts?
OIH pulled back last week and should have been purchased 2 days ago on the 10sma.
At this point it is in the middle of a move to fill that gap overhead and it may pullback first or it may not. No way to tell really.
Alex, any thoughts on REE? I was hoping it would go up with the others, hasn’t done much, sitting on the 50 on the daily chart.
Tough call. AVL & REE have turned their 50sma downward. I like to see it curl upward and stay that way. You could buy with a tight stop since its on the 50sma, but a gap down could also happen.
Both stocks had bought offerings this week which stopped their up move. AVL’s offering actually is above the current market price. AVL is right at its moving average. Personally for what it’s worth I like these guys.
Thanks for that information Carl. I have a small REE position and was wondering what was up.
EXK looks like it is backtesting the break out and support from 10,20,50 d moving averages, correct? wild swing though….
Hopefully, but yes : )
I like the set ups on BBEP, CRK, KEG (which as down this a.m. on earnings, now green), AXAS, etc
Today was kind of a crazy day. Solars got hit hard and got stopped out of TSL at my entry point. But RIG, CLNE and CLF had great days VALE did pop after hitting it’s 10DMA but passed up on it this morning. RIG is an interesting one as it’s still paying a 3$ dividend.
Those are all beasts, huh? CLNE is unreal , and that was quite the reversal on VALE.
Alex, any thoughts on bonds? Interesting to me that they are trending down while market underperforms and while (until today!) metals seem alright. Assumption is traders assuming near term June rate hike on the table, but interesting to see different investment classes taking different angles on the Fed. Interesting times indeed (but certainly not easy!).
Rob: What to do with #Gold longs? get out now or just put a hard stop at 1173?
I’m writing a quick update now
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