Sometimes It Feels Like A Roll Of The Dice
Yesterday I had a ton of bullish chart set ups and I posted some of them here. Since we are in an earnings period, some of the charts broke out higher, some went lower, and others broke out higher and then reversed lower. It felt like a roll of the dice, but honestly, the bigger picture of the markets themselves may have a lot to do with future direction of many stocks, so lets review some charts again!
.
SPX – I figured we’d make a run for the top of this wedge, but that resistance line reversed price again. It is running out of room!
The NASDAQ gapped higher and didn’t quite give it up…
This chart above doesnt look bearish and using the chart below ( April 15) I had mentioned before that these consolidations can go sideways and break out . That could happen , but we are about 1/2 way through the daily cycle count and I think it is more likely that this will eventually break down. That old saying “Sell in May and go Away” hasnt worked in this Bull, but this bull is getting older. It might work this year?
NATGAS has been shaking out the ones who bought it at the bottom, but I continue to like this set up as it recovers from that break down.
OIL- Oil broke above resistance and that should now act as support. I expected oil to hit near $57 and then ‘test’ that support. Its not a big move or a big deal, but some of our energy stocks took a dip yesterday. Realistically, the Energy stocks still look fine .
SFY for example. This isnt a bad chart, it just feels it when you own it (at this point) . If you weren’t in it, you might even be eager to buy it, right? When you own it, you dont want to give anything back and you wish you sold last week . If you sold it last week and this now takes off to $4.50 in 3 days, would you be happy?
The point is…you will NOT always be able to sell the top. In fact, I rarely sell the top unless I use Fibonacci price projections and even then , I only get close. I often try to buy the lows, however, so I dont have to sell THE top to make a good %-Gain.
GOLD/SILVER/ MINERS
What can I say? Many false starts. Gold looks OK, Silver looks ugly, Miners looked Bullish. They all lack follow through.
GOLD – this is really running out of room. Cycle count unclear I.M.O. This sideways action is just driving people crazy 🙂
SILVER – dropped Monday and held up Tuesday. Oversold, but can stay that way.
GDX – It looks like it wants to break higher, but it’s a little overbought.
So for now I am still thinking that The equity markets are still in that squeeze of the wedge. I still see nice chart set ups there too. I still feel that NATGAS is going higher, after the recent shake out . I’m liking the look of OIL and Energy stocks, but if you own them, yesterday was probably uncomfortable. I’d like to see them reverse higher or at least hold up on major moving averages. I still own Energy Stocks and am trading other ideas. Metals are still rather unclear , but I would expect things to resolve soon. The problem is that Gold, Silver, and Miners may POP in one direction as a false break out or break down , and then move the other way. I am pretty much staying away from the metals markets right now , until things clear up. Solars still look good. I posted this ASTI chart yesterday and still like this set up. SOL, TSL, JKS, JASO also look good. They are in uptrends and consolidate and then run higher again.
I also like the look of SZYM.
Its pulling back on really light volume. There is a gap open below, but support may be at the 10sma now that this broke out. The gap is at the 20sma. I added a little more yesterday.
Lets see how things play out today. I would like to see those energy stocks slow down and hold in various areas of support. All the rest is trading at this point. Thanks for being here and happy trading.
~ALEX
How do you attach a chart in the comments.
First you have to save your chart ( Capture it , save it to your desk top or in a folder and name it ).
When you write your comment, look for this little box at the lower left. Click on it, find your chart, click on it and it should attach it.
Thanks Alex, I for one have SFY, EXXI, BAS, RIG, all took a hit Yesterday. Lets hope today holds and reverses. I feel confident in our energy positions. I Think oil is going higher. I see the price at the pump continue up, very few reversal days?
Everything I own took a hit too, and after a decent run up , it can definitely be discouraging to give it back. I look back at some stocks in the 2008 oil sell off and see that it wasnt straight up then either. There were some pretty big pullbacks.
I have KEG and SFY right now, looking at adding crude now that inventory for week is out of the way. Alex definitely had some great points. I lowered my stops more than I wanted to, but didn’t want to stop out at the reversal point! Using hindsight definitely should have sold some SFY last week when I saw the overbought conditions. But I also did that with CLNE and gave up almost $2/share! Yesterday was ugly for me, but still holding in there.
Bought a little more SZYM this morning. Had a buy in on SFY but hasn’t hit yet . Got a little AKS which looks like might head towards its 50DMA. I think UGAZ looks good and might add a bit.
I got stopped out of GDP because my stop was tight at the 50sma, and it reversed higher now .
SFY looks like a nice reversal too, if it holds
Yeah, it’s a bit of a mixed bag in oil stocks but there are some nice reversals going on with oil basically flat.
Yes, I want to see those reversals hold there (or extend higher). Sometimes they reverse and buyers dry up, then into the close they sell off a little bit.
I’ve gone to a ‘mental stop’ or stop on close mentality. It was so close, didn’t want to go out by one cent. B/c I had earlier entry I still have positive $$ wiggle room. If I see the positive reversal today give up the ghost, I’ll have to bail but trying to give room for next leg up in crude.
Exactly right, Alex. You can’t expect to buy the bottom and sell the top. All we can do is look for good entries and then set appropriate stops. That’ll more often than not mean risking a loss. But that’s where position size, diversification, and good TA come in. The key is finding opportunities where the reward is multiples of the risk and then letting the trade develop, which includes suffering drawdowns like we’ve seen in some names like SD, SFY, etc.
You can be more conservative but that will limit your gains. You can also be a lot more conservative but just end up chewing yourself up and accruing small losses without allowing many (if any) big gains to develop. There’s a fine balance to be found.
Hindsight is easy!
Hindsight is so much easier – lol.
Had a buy in on AKS near it’s 10DMA. Didn’t think it would get there but it did. We’ll see how that one does.
I got stopped out of GDP / below the 50sma
My stop is in but a little bit lower. Just giving it a little room. Volume seems low. Same with EXXI.
I got stopped out of HERO.
Oil just spiked a bit on an inventory build. Interesting. It’s fading now though. Let’s see if it holds up at all.
Gold stocks look like they got rejected at resistance. Probably one more trip down for those dudes?
could be heading into the daily cycle low for CYcles. Could be a good buy opportunity.
Good Morning,
FWIW:
I have ReEntered GDP, SD, NADL and EXXI this morning. Very tight stops !
Watching BAS, DNR, NOG, PACD and WRES.
Good luck, Ken. My energy plays aren’t exactly on fire right now, but at least they’ve stabilized for now.
Thanks Cason.
I am playing WTIC for a final 5th wave top is all….I might be a tad early. A very short leash to find out though. 🙂
Ken, appreciate your thoughts. Obviously, will be reading Alex’s stuff, but if you see Wave 5 topping out in a few, give a shout! I’m jumping in WTIC today.
No problem Cason. I shall.
Disclaimer: my wife broke my crystal ball this morning though ! 🙂
Mine never worked in the first place!
Nothing to do with Alex’ excellent ideas but some may be interested in NBG. See sell off yesterday, retesting Jan lows. Look at the volume. Capitulation? Totally reversed today.
Now take your chart back to 2007 and uncheck Log Scale. Hmmm…
Dont worry about my ideas, I am very happy to have you guys / Gals share ideas or stocks that you think are perking up. There are over 3000 in the nasdaq alone, I may miss 1or 2 (thousand : )
May I ask your view as a potential long term trend up?
It does look good. NBG does have a double bottom there and the Feb move on a WEEKLY CHART was huge volume. I like that, but before we can know if it’ll trend higher or just possibly bottom out (Build a base) longer, you want to see the weekly chart close over the 10 WMA. and stay there.
Nice reversal candle this week and nice volume for only a Wednesday.
Indeed and thank you.
$650 to $1. Does make you think.
pm discussion for me. it looks like the pull of the dcl/icl is going to bring the pm stocks down. I would like to know if anyone is able to count the cycles. It could be that this a long third cycle that can bottom in may, instead of april. Difficult to assess, but I was short and stopped out and may need to reestablish my position either by end of today or tomorrow morning early.
In all honesty- It has been difficult watching this thing morph into a sideways triangle type pattern. Having reached the apex, it broke down today, but how far?? I have had in my mind for a long time that we see what happened last Nov-Dec, where it looked ok and then just gave it up to a DCL.. That would mean the ICL is in, and this shouldnt break that Low in March for Gold. SIlver has been weak and kind of projecting this move.
I cannot say that I DO know the cycle count, but since they can be 30 or more days, I was looking at the first daily cycle being in & we are heading for a Daily Cycle low.
This has been very, very tough in metals. Was with Marinho and tried to be short but sideways chop threw me out then it finally breaks down without me.
The one most interesting point unlike prior, IMHO: Nov/Dec low was met with huge volume and epic volatility, was really really obvious. This time it’s more of a “who cares” in vol/volt. Not sure exactly what that means yet but the difference in those terms is very very Stark!
I am stearing clear or shorting I think we have more downside to go, same head fake in sept oct 2014
If interested:
Uranium ( URA ) broke above resistance today.
Alex any thoughts ?
Upon further review URA did Not break out……very close though. Sorry
It looks really good though, thx Ken. URZ , UEC, URRE. etc all bullish too
It’s strong above 100D and big volume so far today. Prob needs to sustain above 200D for there to something in it. But it makes sense as many commodities are doing nicely. Big picture on $ is trending up but ST looks as if correcting
Broken Now !
Brazil may be getting ready to take off here, EWZ I like it with a stop at the 50 DMA
I already own EBR which is popping nicely; thanks again to whoever pointed that one out the week before last; nice timing. I bought right then on the last day (Apr 13) of the consolidation. Very nice, and lucky!
Nice charts.
Hey there, I mentioned it to Alex to have a look over. I was actually going to email him direct but I thought someone could benefit from seeing it here! Also holding and looking good
Glad to have indirectly helped 🙂
Matt
I look at the 3 month chart of CLF – Bottoming , then I look at the char of VALE . They almost look like twins (except for today). HHMMMM
Any Dip buyers in Gold miners today?
Not me, I am waiting for a reversal & some more confirmation.
It could be day 25 for gold, so its in the timing for a daily cycle low, but it could go for 28 -32 days too.
I also like Sugar ( SGG ) here with a stop below wave 2 at 31.26.
Alex,
I must have graduated to your level because we now share the same Avatar ! 🙂
I have no idea how that occurred ! Sorry
lol
I saw that too, you Ken and Ash are the grey lion and I’m the Red one. Odd – it must be a default if you dont have ur own loaded?
cuz CF is RED HOTT … Tssszzzzzzzzzzz [wetting finger, touching skin] .. with your calls that is…
I am working on the report now, it will be a little late , I apologize, I think I had food poisoning last night. Felt like I was dying – Wow.