More Of The Same
The markets are moving much like I have been mentioning over the past few weeks. Things in OIL have played out as expected , and I believe they will continue to do so. I am seeing some interesting things happening in GOLD & MINERS, I will discus that a bit here, but the weekend report may be quite revealing , since we will see a few more days of trading playing out. Lets just get to the charts…
I have focused on the WEDGE patterns playing out to keep us longer term cautious and aware. As I mentioned in a past report, I am seeing MANY bullish set ups in stocks. For traders it is a traders paradise. I still like ENERGY, STEEL stocks , Many Tech stocks have nice set ups , etc . SO instead of just the wedge in NASDAQ, let me show this outside possibility. A normal channel and both show more upside possible for these trades to play out.
NASDAQ March 26. I pointed out the possible sideways trading type move is also possible , and that is what we have seen.
Our OIL / ENERGY trades are playing out. Today OIL is down , am I concerned? The following Charts say not to be concerned at this point.
WTIC – hits resistance and backs off a bit
OIL – looks very healthy when you zoom in . The pullback that many are talking about can even drop further
Big Picture OIL WKLY– A small bounce could be MUCH higher
Someone wrote to me worried that their oil stocks pulled back at the close , but they said they were concerned that “ALL THE OIL STOCKS…” pulled back into the close. Actually, they all didnt , some closed at highs. Profit taking is normal when stocks move 20% higher. Look at the close yesterday for LEI, GST, HERO, VTG, REN, MILL, TDW….Many closed at their highs.
I have been watching METALS and MINERS keenly, because I think that is going to be our next big trade. Even if a stealth ICL was put in in March, the next leg up looks like it will be great. I like the way many individual miners are acting, and I am looking forward to a future low risk entry.
Let me show you some “things of interest’, though I still need more time to see how this unfolds.
GOLD MARCH 16 , I pointed out past break outs ( green arrow) often “Tested” the break out trend line at ICL’s steep drop (Magenta arrows). I expected a break out & test at an ICL.
I took a closer look, did we already have that break out & Test at an ICL in our recent steep drop?
GOLD TECH ANALYSIS is Bullish – we made a higher high short term too. (Closing gap now?)
LONG TERM BIG PICTURE – GDX appears to be in a bullish descending wedge . This could still break down and put in final lows much lower if the ICL (Deep trade-able lows) were still ahead. I keep saying that a close above $20 is important to me, so I am still watching.
If the ICL is behind us in MARCH, GDX could even break higher soon , still in the 1st daily cycle to make a higher high than March, and then drop to “Test” that break out and form a DCL. THAT would be our buy.
There is more and we still need time for this to all play out. Tomorrow if the various markets do not change that much, I am not going to keep posting the wedge pattern playing out, Oil doing what I thought it would , etc etc . I am going to just have a post of chart trade set ups for the traders here. I am sorry this report is being released after the market open- it got a tad chaotic here this morning, lost my charts that I drew up last night and had to do a “do over” . UGH. As always , thanks for being here and Have a great day !
~ALEX
I just recovered 2 of yesterdays charts in a separate folder. It was SZYM. There was concern that it pulled back at the end of the day. I was told that “it really dropped hard, so I bailed out” and was asked what I think.
If you see that happen to one of your stocks, the best thing to do is zoom in on a smaller scale and see if it looks “Normal’ – like I did with OIL in an above chart.
This was SZYM 10 day – looks great. The pullback into the close was “Normal” and I wrote that I still expected to see $3.50
And LGCY
Hi Alex! NQ is taking nice run up right now. I bought it yesterday. Should i take fast profits, or just raise my stoploss little bit up? Do you see more upside?
I actually like this set up, so I “might ‘ raise stops. Let me draw a quick chart and I’ll post it here in a minute
Ok, m refresh for the chart . The chart merely shows good upside potential if this break out stocks. ( And see 6 month chart too)
CMCM ( mobile also )broke out and ran fast
CHECK OUT FXI – China looks like a spinning top. So YANG would be the buy.
If you look at CHINA STOCKS…they are exploding see JRJC $SINA $QIHU $CHNR $CMGE $CHLN $YZC $YOKU $YY $YNDX Ok, throw $FENG $CHNR in there too
YANG is the 3X bear ETF; I assume you meant YINN, although I’d be hard pressed to buy at this kind of overbought pt (short term at least). Yikes. Would have been a good time to buy yesterday (or a month ago)! 🙂
No – I meant YANG. Not following the sheep to the slaughter, but contrary thinking.
I was saying that FXI is a spinning top . A bearish exhaustion gap, so YANG is likely a bullish exhaustion gap down.
Unless you did mean YANG, for a reversal.
Stopped out of BAS EXXI CLNE Today. I will look to buy in lower Tomorrow.
I sold out of CLNE two days ago (too early but above today’s close). I got stopped out of EXXI also, by a few cents (darnit!). Thinking of SFY or re-entry on EXXI soon. Do you still like energy (pending tomorrow’s action)? I think oil needs to push back up tomorrow elsewise risks rolling over with horrid inventory numbers. Thinking maybe to move on to some of the tech stocks that Alex has been showing; I’m horribly undiversified.
Gold is backtesting this trendline that seems to have been meaningful: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p47139136824&a=195341840
Also the neckline of a little inverse H&S here.
If the ICL was in March (Gold), the first DCL could come any day now ( could even be today), first DCL’s can sometimes be hard to spot, I normally don’t try to trade around them….This week I started to get some buy signals for some miners, yesterday I started buying some (AU,CDE,GG,PAAS). If I’m correct, I don’t see gold dropping below 1195.
Nice turnaround in miners (so far) scalped (NUGT) and watching charts for now 🙂
Whew, just got out of (NUGT) before Fed.
Same. Very slight drawdown but definitely avoided major damage. Based on Alex’s recent analysis, I think this afternoon was the last stand to possibly pop before rolling over. I’m feeling we roll into the next low from here. Unlikely to take any longs for a few weeks.
Agree. Will be watching for entry @ lower area. GL 🙂
Hi Alex… back again.
You wrote this morning: “OIL – looks very healthy when you zoom in”.
Question: Does it still healthy after today big los?
Hope you do well.
Hey Geurt
Nice to hear from you again.
tomorrow mornings report will have oil
I’m thinking about writing a trading book about my philosophy, here is the title: “Giving up Gains: How to consistently turn winners into losers!” No, seriously, I know that others have posted similar comments – I have made some great entries recently. But my exits just stink. As a general rule if you could keep pounding into our heads options for taking money off the table, exiting early, looking for reversals/topping patterns, stop loss concepts. I know that you have. But clearly I am not getting it.
My Spider-Sense tingled on oil at 4:05 PM yesterday. Just a bit too late. Darn it for work being busy this week. I know one day doesn’t make a trend, but I could have avoided a pretty significant drawdown if I had just been a bit more nimble.
cason…not sure if this helps at all … but, the single most important ahhhh haaa moment for me (thanks entirely 2 CF) was these simple words …”there’s always another trade” …once I fully wrapped my brain around that… it was just simply at matter of methodically going thru the motions of skimming off profit as I truck along…. ;o)
Very well said Maria. It’s npt easy , but just trade faster by selling all the pops.
Some of the Miners or Energy stocks can POP 10% in a day. Honestly….We all want these to double, so we hold on (And there is nothing wrong with that…in time they can double), but that takes TIME. They dont double in a day and there will be ups and down. They wont go straight up….if you are going to hold, you have to except that everyday wont be up. Some of these Energy stocks just made 8% + 8% + 8 %—then they give back 6% and it seems bad.
In the past month – BAS just ran $5 to $9 roughly. EXXI just ran $2.6 to $4.5 SZYM $2.60 to $3.40 ERF $8.80 to $11.60 etc etc etc These just had 1 down day. These are great %-Gainers.
So if you are wanting to “Make some gains”…pocket some gain? U need to skim the pops. If your stock is up 10%…sell it & be happy. If it keeps running after you are out?? There is always another trade.
Thanks for additional feedback. I would have been happy to keep EXXI. I was in UWTI, instead of going for the 57 target on crude, should have peeled off due to leveraged asset. Live, learn, trade again).
While I was a bit pessimistic, I am still ahead on both trades. 🙂
Great answer Maria. There’s always another trade. I put that above my desk, and in my head! Thanks 🙂
:o) why thank u sir/mam?
… ps. i also have “base hits move runners” .. on a sticky note for the #sportygirl in me… .that works great too!!
Nice!! ( PS, I’m a guy) Name is Ken. All the best, and never give up! 🙂
Ken? as in the Ken that has posted re: Elliott wave theory in past? I am working hard to learn that…interested in any recommended resources..
Sorry, different Ken. I use Wishfullthinkin as I saw that another Ken was posting and I did not want confusion (like I just did.) I don’t know much about Elliott wave. I count on Alex and am learning much from him.
Yeah, I know, but I like to wallow in the mistakes (really bad habit). I actually still made money on EXXI, my stop was above entry, still holding crude and back in green now. BUT, if I had been a little more on my game I could have maximized.
Ok, on to next trade as you say. I went into SFY yesterday, am adding Now that it request through 50 day. Thanks, Maria
:o) no problem… i literally use sticky notes to remind me & repeat that mantra over & over..it’s just something that finally clicked for me. once it resonated and I truly did believe it with all my heart… well, the rest …shall we say .. is history ;o)
make 2day.. day 1 – of casons NEW habit … find a mantra & repeat it…fake it till u make it ;o)