Patiently Waiting

As mentioned in the past, there are times when the markets allow us to see clearly the direction they want to head in  for a sustained period of time, and at other times it’s just not that clear.     Often times when the various markets are changing direction, price gets a little choppy.  Entering trades during that period can be frustrating too,  since  even good set ups may work for a day  or two , only to fail the next.  Unless you are a day trader , then that leads us to this conclusion for traders who want to buy & hold positions for a week or two – Sometimes it’s a good time to be trading and at other times it’s best to just try to be patient.

Futures are currently higher in the DJIA, SPX, and NASDAQ, is the pullback over?

Yesterday , I was looking for a deeper pullback

Yes, the futures are green, but is it just a bounce?  Notice what I wrote on  the following chart of the QQQ’s…

Todays Gap Open higher may lead to further selling later. I expected lower prices , since each MACD cross sold off again after a bounce ( Black line) and I had a target closer to 104.  Almost oversold.

The SPX WKLY –  looks like support is lower & the weekly RSI is weakening.

Feb 27  I pointed out that the XLU  ( Utilities) Wkly chart looked to be setting up

Notice the 50 WMA .  As a weekly chart, you’d need to see a break out

OIL– Nothing has changed from yesterdays report.  IT is green and above the 50sma one day, then sells down below the next.

  The Picture heading of the puppy with his leash is how I feel.  We have been ready to go for another run in Energy / Oil ,  but the sideways move is just extending . Some energy stocks that acted well have now dropped below their 50sma.   I mentioned that timing is getting late and it should seek out a low for a daily cycle low, the question is how deep will it be?  It is frustrating and I am now unable to stay in my energy positions waiting for a break out higher.  If it is going to happen, I can re-enter later, but for now it”s a matter of locking in profits or preserving funds .

I still find it interesting that the $USD is surging and OIL is not crashing.

GOLD – The count seems unclear and I have seen in trading blogs many keep trying to go long with each intraday bounce.  It has hurt their funds, but now I think we are very close to a temp bottom.  ( Gold is RED pre-mkt as I write).

SILVER still looks like a bullish set up,  the wedge may or may not be complete.

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GDX often drops rapidly into a daily cycle low or ICL.     See the left side of the chart for that fast drop, drop, drop.

GDX NOW – we just got that type of drop.

I also got a special  “Technical Buy”  in GDX yesterday  and a wedge break out on an intraday chart.  The Technical “Buy”  works especially if we get a  gap down today.  It often catches the lows on The day of the lows or within a day.  I AM NOT RECOMMENDING IT HERE.   It can be temporary and is not low risk .  Trading this area can be fast UP & DOWN and I wont have time to guide anyone on that type of trade.  The real buy likely lies ahead in a month or two. The ICL.

  I may / may not not take the trade myself  . In the past , it usually catches the lows. The LAST time I got the technical buy , it didnt catch it exactly. It bounced for 1 day and dropped 2 more , then the ICL was in  as seen on the above chart. 

I was going to buy a quick trade yesterday in  NUGT when the buy signal hit near 3 p.m. and I captured this  chart of GDX.  This is only for active traders in front of the screen.

 LIke that eager Puppy waiting to go for a walk,  we are eagerly awaiting some good trades to take a walk with, but patience to allow things to settle down and set up correctly is often needed.    I believe that there is still a little uncertainty in the markets and they are choppy.  You enter a trade  (Lets say  we entered when the SOLARS popped), and then they pullback and it gets frustrating.  However  it is during pullbacks that you get some nice set ups to go long and I am  currently looking for those now.

YGE & a few other Solars are getting close for example – Pops and  pulls back repeatedly, but that can indicate accumulation in Solar Stocks.   Rare Earth and Uranium stocks may be doing that too.

Remember PEIX  had this base .  I thought that it could pop.

Popped, pulling back lightly-    It may be a buy near the 50sma and trend line

We have mentioned the strong run in FXEN.  Yesterday it hit my target  ( But I dont know if I should trust Energy enough  right now with a New position, since I just closed a few as they fell under the 50sma)  FXEN has a break away gap under the 50sma. It is worth watching  as a future possibility.

2 Longer term trades that I said that I liked were  Under Armor and VIMC  if they continue to act correctly.  They have now pulled back.

I was asked to look at RIG

Wow, Rig at $14. Who would have thought.

It could be at lows, but I dont see signs of a reversal on the weekly chart yet, it’s only Wednesday

RIG DAILY –  It may be at lows, but it also could break down further. A trader could take a chance with a close stop, since it is oversold a little , and at Jan lows. It may sell off further with that MACD cross down .

SO the markets in various sectors are jumpy , choppy, and difficult to manage at a low risk level.  They gap open and sell off, the POP & DROP,  etc .   There is risk  in each trade.  I see some trading blogs where people will post 10 picks everyday.  maybe they see 10 stocks that sell off & suddenly gets a reversal,   or 10 break outs to buy , etc .   Its exciting, but NOT low risk.   Often you’ll see the set up they posted pops the next day ( Like YGE & SOL did ) and then give it up & drop for days again.     I have entered a couple of Solar stocks that do that,  Uranium, etc .   It was a trade for no gain if held for more than a day , and that kind of trading isnt for everyone.     Those who work fulltime cant manage positions like that, so I want to try to find some trades that can be held for a while .  Now those stocks MIGHT be bottoming and setting up for a more sustained run,   but that takes time.   If we are patient ,  they do come along after pullbacks and offer some decent buy set ups & entry points.

~Alex