Observations

Often my Thursday report covers Thursday and Friday, leading into the Big Weekend Report, but a lot happened today, so I wanted to put out a  Friday report.  After a large drop Wednesday in SPX, DJIA, NASDAQ, IBB, etc , I felt we were right on target with the series of  charts showing the Wedge Pattern, but were we about to slam right through it and break down? It looked it …

Today, we saw this in many markets…

IWM today

NASDAQ –  The steep drop Wed ended Thursday with a gap down / reversal.    Are we forming another box of  consolidate, run higher, consolidate action?  Too early to tell, but they do buy these dips, dont they.      I am still watching that BEAR WEDGE indicating a sell off  nearing the APEX .

  Reminder:  I posted this chart of OIL 2009 double bottom & called for oil to do the same break down (shake out) and recovery in Mid March . It did happen.   IT is  a tactic that causes people to get stopped out of their long positions .  They often also quickly go  “Short”, then the reversal stops out the shorts and a rally occurs.

After I wrote that,  It DID happen in oil.

Why do I write this here??  Look at NATGAS.

$NATGAS –   I do not do cycle timing for NATGAS, so I dont know how long each daily cycle usually lasts, but if this is dipping into a cycle low?   I am looking at this chart and seeing something similar to what OIL looked like, when I called for it to break the lows and recover  (Shake out).

Just an Observation with Thursdays volume in NATGAS…we may see the same double bottom break ??

OIL  today – Next target $55ish .   Many oil stocks gapped higher and closed the gaps and didnt get bought back.  Yes, that was a little disappointing when you look at what OIL did.   I’m not overly concerned, but I’d like to see more buying in Energy stocks tomorrow.

 In Thursdays report I wrote the BULLISH Gold idea  &  BEARISH Gold ideas.  Please re-read it if you forget my thinking here.   Miners & Gold gapped open higher Thursday, Miners sold off.   I had pointed out a bearish engulfing on Miners so we had follow through.  The following charts do not really change things a LOT ,  just a tad more bearish, but my thinking is this.

GOLD – I expected a tag of the $1221 area  ( 50sma). Here I show a Bearish scenario of a large drop to follow, but a sideways move under the 50sma could ‘coil’ preparing it to break higher.

GOLD did tag the 50sma & dropped.     This is where it looks like last Oct to me ( on the above chart) .   How it pulls back from here ( or coils & surges higher) will reveal a lot in my opinion. Was that a Mid March DCL like last October & another  drop?  Or was that an ICL and the lows are in?  I have been leaning towards another drop.    Time will tell.

GDX- follow through to the bearish engulfing yesterday happened on the daily chart.

This is what I am watching  on the WEEKLY chart Friday , since it is the end of the week.

GDX WEEKLY- a surge higher Friday would close this week out Bullish.    A close near here or lower isnt the death Knoll – the last ICL in NOV also paused here & dropped.  Remember: We made good money on the 2nd daily cycle in December thru Jan .

SO we are getting closer to a buy in Metals Miners from my observations.  We either drop to the ICL soon,  or even if one is in place,  we can buy this pullback or a 2nd daily cycle low (DCL).  My gut is saying that we are in a similar position as OCT.  

I have been busy this week ,  away from my computer/ laptop during the weekdays Wed, Thursday and again Friday.  I expect the same during the early  part of next week , and then back to normal.   This means that I cannot answer questions real time, but I do read the comments when I return.  Feel free to keep posting there , even if you are just talking amongst yourselves.

SO what would I watch for Friday in GOLD / MINERS ?

1. A surge higher to help the weekly charts?   or

2. The components of GDX & GDXJ . Are they breaking down ?  Shake out & recover?

  Here is NEM for example .   Will this break the lows of March 11 as I have drawn ?   Or Bounce Friday?

GG looks  even weaker, rejected at the 20sma 3 days ago, and this is the biggest component of GDX.   Friday Reversal higher?   Break down?   Time will tell .

Watch SILVER STOCKS today too.  SSRI, AG, PAAS, etc gave it up today while Silver was looking good. ARe they leading the way into a sell off?  Time will tell.

SO have a great Friday and a great weekend!  Thanks for being here.

~Alex