Jobs report Friday

I dont always do a Friday report if not much has changed since Thursdays report, but with the release of the jobs number , I did want to cover one thing…

 

BY the time I release this the numbers may be out , it is 8:00 a.m. as I start.   A good number may start the next leg up in the Markets. They have not been able to sell it down, they have just gone sideways. My first target was the big round 5000.  Since then we have just had a sideways consolidation,  can we now move to my 5200 number?   I was really expecting a pullback to the break out first,  then a run higher.

NASDAQ-   Higher now , or do we still pullback to test the recent break out? ( I thought we should drop)

NAZ March 5

What I wanted to mention was related to GOLD/MINERS. This has been an extended sideways selling period and this can build steam for a move. The problem with GOLD/SILVER is that they often throw a curve out there and give a false move first.  Like the shake outs, then they go higher that we have seen.  You also can get a pop higher and then a sell off  ( we have seen that recently with GOLD up overnight, then it sells off).   So here is what I am getting at  FOR TRADERS.  I cant recommend a long position here as a low risk entry, but this is what I think may happen .

I stated this before on these 2 charts,  so this is a timely reminder for any inclined to trade GOLD, SILVER, Miners at this time  (On your own) .  We could get a slam to new lows, shake out anyone who bought what looked like a daily cycle low 6 days ago…and then GOLD may reverse higher, putting in a real daily cycle low.

SILVER  already made new lows overnight, and I posted this the other day for GOLD possibility. Shake out scenario, something to watch for.

GOLD March 2

I posted this and asked that you look on the left side of the chart.  See the slam down at the purple box, THEN we got our 10 day run higher , drawing  in the longs before the final sell off to an ICL.

GOLD March 3

You might see that today, since SILVER already broke to new lows,  a spike down & reversal in GOLD.   THAT could be a buy for the traders that can watch their positions without my help today.   A spike below $1190 and recovery may be the real DCL.   IF GOLD just sells off and we do not get a  reversal?  That  means we were wise not to mess with this sloppy weak looking set up so far.

 

What am I looking at? What is interesting besides ENergy & Solars to me?

I am trying to spend today looking in other areas, there are so many interesting sectors.  I have seen great moves in BIOTECH,  ( SEE CRMD, EYES, ZIOP, etc etc ) I want to examine more charts there.    Solars are moving nicely ( See JKS, TSL, TAN, YGE, SOL, VSLR (thx Maria for that one).  Uraniums are moving again.  Look at URG, then see URZ  & UEC   ,  they may have follow through today.   I am still mostly in ENERGY ,  yes I am a little bored waiting for REXX, SFY, etc to break higher,  but I was bored with SOL , YGE, JKS too…and they took off.   For now I am still  waiting ,   they should break  higher   (or stop acting correctly)  soon enough.

 

I will have more in the weekend report,  but For those that like to look at interesting  charts,  I have been looking at a variety of charts and  really like GLNG, RGLS, RNDY, BITA, AMBA, etc  (  Looking at a 1 yr chart,  I think BEAT may break out soon too,  as a Biotech medical play) 

Best wishes on all your trades and have a great Friday & Weekend!

 

~Alex

 


 

 

35 replies
  1. shermo
    shermo says:

    Thanks Alex….yep got the slam down so far in metals…will be watching to see how the day progresses…..still holding the larger oil stocks with a stop to keep profits….have a good weekend…..

  2. Rick
    Rick says:

    Basically if there is no reversal today then we should stay away from gold longs as it should then break below previous lows?

  3. Bill
    Bill says:

    Morning Alex, and All.
    Looking at some of the Energy stocks. BAS and SFY had a nice Runup, EXXI and GDP got stopped by announcing a stock release.
    EXXI has comedown just like it did in early February. GDP is looking similar, although a little further extended. Can we expect a move higher in EXXI similar to what we saw earlier? A 3 drive to the top move? GDP is do or die soon, at 38.2 % retrace lets hope we get a bounce higher. If not it may soon resemble NADL…….Thoughts?

  4. Ron
    Ron says:

    Alex…thoughts on alternative energy bottoming and popping potentially like Bio…SZYM AMSC MEIL CLNE AMTX BWEN CPST, etc? Thanks

  5. Ash
    Ash says:

    Hi Alex , great reports as always. Is there any new updates on exxi? I missed the entry at 2’s & 3’s already ..But now I am thinking of adding at this level on a dip day.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I did draw this 2 days ago & it is on that trend line & 20sma now. It could offer a low risk buy , if your stop is a little below the 20sma ( Hit refresh to see the chart)

  6. CS
    CS says:

    Alex, I feel your pain on SOL. I did keep my YGE though, but it is painful to see something explode after you sell it!

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          Yes, but I really want to see a move higher soon to start to curl the 50sma upward ( like we saw in the miners after the bottom bounce came in). Some are just moving to the moving averages and SFY & EXXI and a few others even established a trend line. See chart

          • Bill
            Bill says:

            Alex, thanks for sharing that. I’ll take a look at the others. You recommend a sell if you get a close below the 50sma, correct?

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            I think a close below the 50sma (if price was above it for a few days ) is a sign of weakness , so yes.

            REXX has a tendency to break below and close above , so you can see that (2x in Feb) for an example of breaking below & recovering.

  7. harry wagner
    harry wagner says:

    I’m also looking at other sectors that may interest me, I’m afraid of biotech right now, with sentiment so bullishly extreme in the stock market, I’m afraid when it pulls back, biotech will be hit hard.
    Some sectors that are beat up that I’m starting to look at are Utilities, Transportation, and basic materials. What are your thoughts on whats the next sector that’s ready to make a move.
    Thanks

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I need to look into it a bit more.

      I will say that I have been “Caught” in 2013 BIO run up with some really good biotech stocks charts. I got caught with a gap down that was brutal. Sometimes its that they are working on something and the tests dont pass the FDA approavla. BOOM, gap down 40%. I traded GALT, CGIX, VASC and a few others and made Great money & lost most in that kind of action. BIOTECH is tricky for sure.

      See OREX & BLRX today…great 6 month charts ( until today )

      • harry wagner
        harry wagner says:

        That’s why I general stay away from individual biotech stocks….To crazy for my blood, I’d rather buy IBB

  8. Bill
    Bill says:

    GDP seeing a little bounce at the 50% retrace. Could still slip further to 61.8% Fibo. Maybe it wants to fill the gap from February 13th? I’ll be selling at the end of the day If this bounce doesn’t hold!

  9. Cason
    Cason says:

    So, how many held on to GDP? I didn’t like the close below the 50 but with Dow down near 300, S&P down 30, and dollar pressuring oil figured it may not be an accurate depiction so will see what Monday brings. If it doesn’t regain it quick, will have to be cut.

  10. Cason
    Cason says:

    Alex, some thoughts as you get ready for weekend report, could the washout in miners yesterday be the final DCL before the spring ICL? Also, am looking at this from a short side perspective, which is different than a long. May get 5 days up, bump the 50 and roll into the low as you depicted. That could start now, maybe. Vol was also vicious on Friday, one more clear tell that GDX will at least test Nov lows if not break them.

    Any new thoughts on USD index. 11 year highs now, wow. Makes me tentative to be in commodity linked spaces like energy. Basically, oil has to fight the supply glut and the $ pricing pressure which can be too much at once.

    I think Fri was overdone. Analysis of the number under the hood show that Feb report was actually weaker than Jan

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Rate hike in Jun US definitely on the table, but I ask if this one report changed that so drasticly and if 1/4% is really that bad? So, my trade for Monday is reversion to the mean. Check BBands on GDX, UUP, TLT and ask yourself if move could continue in the same direction much longer. Have a good weekend!

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