Watchful

The website went down and my apologies for this report being released a little late, thank you for your patience! I had so much to cover, so I am going to try to write less and allow the charts to speak for themselves, feel free to ask questions in the comments section if you need my help…I will be available on & off today. To the charts…

QQQ –  Same ole same ole.

I had been shorting the top ( adding TZA) and  closing half at the lows,  also watching the 50sma. I closed out this position , but may add if we reverse & drop lower again.   It is still unclear which way this will eventually break,  here is why…

I mentioned that many MOMO & much loved wall street companies  were breaking down and looked bearish, and I posted charts of AMZN, MSFT, INTC, BABA, YHOO, etc  Then others looked bullish  (AAPL,  GOOG, etc) .   Yesterday  CMG & Ralph Lauren did the crash thing.  Such a mix, QQQ, SPX, DJIA etc are  still in the trading range.

RL for ex:

SO you can trade the range, if stocks reverse from highs later today  (AGAIN) .  You can add TZA, SDS, TECS, etc —  or wait for a break out higher , but this chart below is a reminder of how tricky it can be inside these ranges. Look at the DEEP swings and even the over shoots here.  Those can be bull or bear traps .   It can be great for traders, nightmare for investors as trades spin their wheels in both directions.

I want to focus on ENERGY ( See Mon Jan 26 report and yesterdays report).  $WTIC finally did what I was watching for .  I pointed this out as something to look for …CLOSE above the 10 & 20sma

JAN 30 had this ..

So it ran up quickly to $54, and now pulled back fast yesterday . Back below $50 , Sentiment IMMEDIATELY went bearish, warning of  a crash 2nd leg down.   (  I see it possibly at support, so I hunt energy stocks )

Here are some ENERGY plays I am looking at.   They acted well with yesterdays sell off.  I think t MANY double bottomed or have formed bases and can be bought .  The set up looks so much like the MINERS in December.

*REMINDER:  Just like Miners , some acted stronger than others,  like CDE and AU  vs  AUY , EXK.   A small basket can be better than risking all in one stock. These ENERGY stocks have LARGE swings in price. Scary for some. Tight stops will sell you out often, but I think the upside could be great for many over time, like CDE and AU, GFI  for ex.

ERF – Nice with the oil sell off and sell off in XLE.

 ERF AGAIN – This is a buy , put your stop where you are comfortable.  ( I think it could MAYBE also drop to the 20sma, but if that makes you uncomfortable..stop out & re-buy later.)

SD- buy here as it crawls the 50sma  ( or breaks above) or watch for further drop

EXXI  FEB 4

NADL-   I like the weekly tight base.  It stopped selling off  all of DEC & JAN even when OIL was selling down .

NADL  so with that base in mind I bought some yesterday , stop below the lows. You can buy here or wait for a break above the 50sma

PKD…holding up – good support

I LIKE GDP AND SFY , since they havent run up yet.  Posted charts yesterday.  I own them , thinking they may play catch up eventually.

KEG

There are more, but due to the website being down, this is good enough for now.   For most here  this is great trading and very helpful,  for a couple who emailed me,  They get confused with too many charts.    The answer to that is ….. “NO-I am NOT recommending you buy them all.”  Look at the charts,  I am showing ones with nice low risk set ups.   They are all setting up well,  I don’t put over extended ones here that ran up 80% and are destined to drop 40% ….they are all good, pick 1 or 2 or 3 ( basket)   that look like they are back near support.  Best wishes.

GOLD & MINERS…Nothing has really changed. We are close though, timing wise in cycle analysis, and technical analysis shows we are approaching a break down or a break out higher.  Also could get that Fake move in 1 direction and then the other . 

GDX FEB 4

$GOLD FEB 4 – I would LOVE to see a break of the recent lows at $1252 and yet see MINERS hold up above their recent lows 5 days ago.  That would add to the cycle count for GOLDs daily cycle low , but Miners would be ok on day 5 of the 3rd daily cycle.  Then GOLD could pop higher and Miners would break out.   Time will tell.

$SILVER ( Needs to break higher , esp on weekly chart)

As I have mentioned , Some individual stocks are just ignoring the noise and charging forward.

GFI, HMY, NG, and check out AU and CDE / PZG

CDE pointed out sweet consolidation  last week.

CDE breaks out ( and so does PZG)

Sorry this is released after the market opens,  but it is often best not to trade the first 1/2 hr , sometimes an hour.  Things can gap UP and then close the gap, visa versa.  These ENERGY stocks are coming off of the lows,  THAT MEANS they are volatile,  will pop up & down , with Bulls buying and Bears shorting, etc.    Remember how the miners were in DEC & JAN,  I was answering tons of emails about a 1 day pop or a 1 day drop.  Look at the big picture if your position drops.  Pull up a 3 month chart and if it is above the supports…it may be fine. 

I wish you all the best and thanks as always for being a CHARTFREAK reader!

~ALEX

P.S.  Please excuse TYPO’s. I usually proof read , today I will just release this,  and go back & fix typos and refresh.  Thanks again for your patience