FRIDAY – We Have Another Sign

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 The Thursday report covered so much and the weekend report will wrap up the weeks activities, so I dont always feel the need to write a report on Friday.  There are actually a few things of interest to note since yesterday however, so I wanted to cover those before the weekend.  I’m going to start with…

OIL –  As expected, A productive & Trade-able bottom for now. More on OIL in this weekends report.

WTIC FEB 12

Moving to the markets …

 

Did you see what happened yesterday in the NASDAQ?  I’ve been reporting internal strength showing up inside the 2 1/2 month consolidation as of a week ago. Yesterday the NASDAQ broke upside.  This could be a legitimate break out and if so, I have an initial  long term target of $5241.57!  That breaks the all time highs of $5132 .52   –  Wow!

Break outs can ‘POP’ and drop back inside,  POP & RUN, or POP & TEST the break out, so we will look for signs along the way . One clue will be whether the other indexes can break to new highs.

NAZ feb 12

So far it looks good ( Bullish) in other indexes too

DJIA

 

That means that after that consolidation, we should see stocks that have consolidated too. They may be setting up for a run higher. I still see some stocks getting crushed with earnings, while others are recovering, so its going to be important to choose investments carefully .

An example of a stock that I think looks to have worked out a ‘base’ is MOBL.  It MIGHT still be basing and could continue sideways, but its breaking above the 50sma , and looks like it wants higher prices with the NASDAQ break out.   Those who like tech stocks could buy it with a loose stop below the 50.

MOBL

Nothing new in GOLD/MINERS.   Expecting a low and a reversal very soon.  I wouldnt be surprised to see it today .  Yesterday was Just another non-event day .  You can see yesterdays report for my thoughts on GOLD.

 

SILVER-   Buy a break out , with a ‘Stop’ below the 50sma at $1675   ( Or add silver Miners )

SILVER FEB 12

 

$NATGAS showed weakness yesterday after the inventory report was released and appeared bearish.  It held up on the 10sma, but must be watched closely.  As a Trader , I was in UGAZ   ( a 3xETF)  from a couple of days ago and closed my position when it dipped under $3. I  raised my mental stop to the $3 area.  I am looking for re-entry if NATGAS hols this bottoming process.

 

I accidentally drew a chart last night & 1 this morning. Same idea, I’ll post both.

NATGAS FEB 12

NATGAS FEB 12 2

 

I posted that SOLAR stocks were setting up.  The weekly chart of FSLR looks really nice.   I posted and purchased  YGE,SOL, CSUN  for at least a quick trade.  They POPPED as expected.

YGESOL

 

Also Energy stocks still look healthy. I found a few more that really caught my eye, and I have added on the dips noted in yesterdays report.

This is WPX , it is a very nice set up on this pullback, possible $2 more upside if it follows through.   My First chart is a close up, the second is a wider view.  The A-B-C pattern is NOT confirmed , so it may not fulfill.  With the volume looking strong , it seems likely though, so I threw it on there.

WPX 2

The only problem is that buying it here, your stop is $1 below. If that bothers you, keep it on a watch list and buy it if it pulls back again before going higher.

WPX

 

GPOR–   I tweeted this out Wednesday,  and then I forgot to post it in yesterdays report.  It is still a valid set up, see chart 2.

GPOR

It Popped higher and reversed into the close. Watch it if you’re interested and buy it at the 50sma again if it dips there.

GPOR 2

  KEG & PKD look good here

 I pointed out KEG  FEB 4 at $1.89.

It then popped to $2.56 

KEG

KEG NOW, back at $2.00

KEG FEB 12

 

So thats it for Friday. I will have a weekend report to cover the weeks activity and it was a very active & promising week . The markets are breaking out of that 2 month consolidation.  Stocks look to  be setting up nicely in Tech, Solar , Energy, Possibly Miners , etc.   Energy stocks bottomed and some double bottomed and took off upside.  This may be the lows for some, this may be just temporary.  Some may continue a  bottoming process later,  if OIL dips to $40 . For now they’ve been very trade-able . Anyone who missed that first nice run up is getting a chance to buy some of these near their 10 sma or 50sma, support lines, etc.  I posted set ups in yesterdays report and stocks seem to be working their way down nicely.  Best wishes on 1 more day of trading and have a great weekend!

 

~ALEX

Note:   I have some newer readers that signed up in the past few weeks. I want to welcome you and thank you ( and everyone) for your interest in Chartfreak.  There is a comment section directly below the reports.  You may want to check that out in case someone asks a question that is also of  interest to you, or please feel free to ask your own .   I may use terms at times that most readers understand by now, but I know that newer readers may not.  There are no stupid questions when the answers can clarify something for you.   I try to answer then in a timely manner, but I will be away today ( In & Out). I will catch up when I log back in.  Thanks.

26 replies
  1. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Right after I released this report, I realized I didnt add my SILVER chart, so I added it now. If it wasnt there when you read the report, you can go back and it is about 1/2 way down . Thx

  2. shermo
    shermo says:

    Alex,
    Thanks for the write up each morning. In prior notes I have learned from you that if we are in a bear market still on $gold then the 3rd daily cycle may peak out in 5-10 days then roll over for the next couple of weeks until the next DCL. I am curios if that ends up being the case if there is an average price retracement that is seen on the 3rd daily cycle. In other words, if usually the 3rd daily cycle average up 5-10 days is there an average price retracement of the prior decline such as 50-60% of the decline is where the 3rd daily cycle usually ends up before rolling over?……thanks for any insight from your experience.

  4. CS
    CS says:

    Good report Alex. I must congratulate you on your energy calls, I bought SFY and it’s been running nicely. Also bought WRES and AKS and both are starting to move as well. I may get ride of my KITE though. I like the chart, it looks ready to run but it’s still lost the 10, 20 and 50 day SMA. It just seems that it can’t ‘get out of its own way’. If you see anything differently on KITE than what you told me yesterday, I’d love to hear it. Thanks for your timely calls. I’m very pleased with your service.

    P.S. If you have entertained sharing some tips of how you find potential investment candidates, I would be very interested.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hey CS

      I am thinking KITE will do well in the longrun, but I dont like it lingering around here. It should be above both the 50sma and the 10sma for me to be comfortable. This currently closes it below the 10 WEEKLY moving average, and that breaks the uptrend that was so stellar.

      At first I thought last week it dipped there and would recover, the daily chart looks like a flag pattern, but it is seemingly weaker right now. IF it were me, I would likely cut it loose and watch it, let it prove itself, and use my money elsewhere while waiting.

  5. Mark Giangreco
    Mark Giangreco says:

    Alex- as you mentioned previously, the volume on the miners just seems so low on this move almost enticing longs to enter prematurely. I still think you’re scenario of a drop to the 50day on GDX and GDXJ 25ish creates the shake needed for this upcoming third cycle. I wasn’t sure whether this move today qualifies for the “low and a reversal soon” as outlined in your report.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      The move in SILVER looks legitimate , based on my chart in the report. GOLD has put in a swing low and likely it will hold. Miners may have weak volume because the 3rd dcycle is weak coming out of the lows anyways, and thats why it might roll over sooner than the previous 2. Maybe volume will swell a bit next week, if buyers step in.

      So…this could be it based on many factors..

  6. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Anyone else watching the RARE EARTH MINERS rock & Roll?

    A lot of beaten down commodities bouncing out of lows ( Could be just Short covering rally)

    MCP, REE, AVL, QRM (REMX ETF)

  7. Geurt.
    Geurt. says:

    Alex….. two questions;
    1. Where can I find the link for NAT.Gas?
    2. Still own UGAZ, bought @ 2.60, where should I set my line in the sand to sell it?

  9. harry wagner
    harry wagner says:

    Alex,
    Have you been looking at any Coal stocks. KOL looking like it’s breaking higher, I don’t like that ETF (low volume), but some of the stocks look good to my ACI,BTU…..your thoughts.
    Thanks

  10. Conrad
    Conrad says:

    Hi Alex. When you cover Oil in your weekend report, I would love to know how you feel about larger caps like BP for a buy and hold strategy (price gain + divi). Thanks in advance.

  11. Rm
    Rm says:

    Alex- very lethargic action in miners.. The last cycle was right translated so the expectation was we would make a higher high yet the names don’t want to move and we now have an abnormally long cycle or we are chopping days sideways depending on the count.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      True, as a whole GDX isnt rocketing out of a low by any means. At the same time, Some still show strength based on where we are in cycle timing. CDE , PZG , NEM , AEM, AU and so on. Not a big drop at the end of an extended daily cycle. Its interesting

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