This message is an afternoon update.
The selling in Miners is picking up and we are getting later in the daily cycle for miners. If we close in this area, there is a ‘bearish engulfing candle’ on GDX (If we close here). They usually indicate profit taking, topping action, and selling can continue. The good news is that on day 18 , this daily cycle is almost guaranteed to be right translated, which means that when it finds its daily cycle low, it should make a run for new highs.
I am just thinking that it would definitely be prudent to remove leverage if some have leveraged positions. It may be prudent to take a little off the table or close all positions to preserve dry powder for the daily cycle low. COULD we maybe just dip for a tag of the 10 sma and then make new highs on day 23 , falling into a daily cycle low after that for maybe day 28 or so? Yes. Somewhat like what we saw in 2012 or even 2008 lows. Can I tell exactly what will happen from here? No.
So this is just a heads up. There are trend lines and moving averages below that can be watched , but it should be noted that we …
1. We might go higher for a few days later this week, possibly double top ? Marginal new highs? and then roll over into a daily cycle low (guess day 28ish)
2. We might just start dropping here , bounce at the 10sma, and then drop further. etc
3. Something else
I just need to mention that maybe some want to start locking in money to buy on the dips if conditions remain favorable . We can always re-enter later. Especially if this selling remains , and we get that Bearish Engulfing Candle.
The Markets have sold off too. QQQ, SPX, DOW are giving it up again. TZA is looking more and more interesting .
I wanted to add these charts of what I see
GDX CURRENTLY – at support , but a sharp selling day & possible bearish engulfing .
I actually drew this yesterday with cycles in mind. Maybe a short cycle since miners seemed strong. I was going to use it in a “Lesson on selling’ to show how GDX could just go sideways , hit a trendline that is rising. Hit the 50sma as it rises. Maybe a quick drop to fill the gap .
. Its possible if the Miners remain strong, but this is a fast sell off so far. It takes price right to the support line.
Was That A Curve Ball? 
Hanging In There?
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It looks like panic? Look at this chart Alex:
http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5
I dont know if its panic, it looks like a stop run to me in Gold. Miners look a little different to me.
Gold itself looks really bullish to me. If you look at a chart of $GOLD daily, the drop today was just below $1230 …that chart looks good and is presumably early in its Daily Cycle. Miners are on day 18 and may be more likely to drop, but they also could be experiencing ‘shake out’ type volatility. .
One more possibility. Big money just manufactured an exit by breaking the triangle and then handing the bag off to over zealous retail traders right before they terminate the intermediate rally. Something just doesn’t smell right about that much selling in miners with gold flat. Probably couldn’t hurt to place a stop to protect some profits in case this is a warning the bullion banks are about to halt the rally.
Very heavy volume in DUST today. In the past this kind of volume has often signaled an intermediate top. Not a guarantee by any means, just noting that warning bells are going off today and it might not hurt to lock in some profit just in case the banksters are getting ready to halt the intermediate rally and force it into a left translated cycle.
Thanks for sharing your concerns. Actually this chart below of DUST says that the last time we had a high volume reversal in Dust …Dust dropped .
I will address more in the next report. I’ll try to put something together tonight. In case I dont have time, chart #2 = 2012 Miners run up. Bearish engulfing sold off a day or 2. We’ll see how this plays out.
I think GOLD / SILVER still looks bullish : ).
Here’s a little bigger look with more than one occurrence.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUST&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75065575364&a=384736333&listNum=1
10day sma 19.83
Maybe a drop to here maybe overshoot and back up. Will be healthy and reset sentiment and wash out weaker hands
Jay,
Hard to say. If one ignores the stop run on Jan. 2 then gold is on day 14 of it’s daily cycle and could be due for a 4-14 day sell off into a daily cycle low.
Gary, On SMT the cycle charts mark 8/9 days into gold cycle. Haven’t seen a reference to this 14 day alternative as of yet.
To all readers.
Please refresh the article and re-read it…I added 2 charts. I wanted to post it as quickly as possible, so I added the charts later. Thanks.
Gold is on day 7, miners 18. It seems we could have a short cycle and then back up?
Alex- this feels like déjà vu with a couple weeks of gains erased very quickly if/when we follow thru to the downside. It’s so hard to hold these metals/miners when it always ends ugly. Today’s candle was awful and silver retracing big in Asian trading. A ton of Commodities are getting destroyed and one has to wonder how long metals can stay bid. I am holding for now but very nervous as to me abx still a harbinger and it acts pitifully. I hope all goes well Tomm with your mom!
Alex, agree with assessment. Metals look ok but ugly for miners. Exited my last tranche of GDX monthlies today. Expire Friday so felt definitely better to take profits since I didn’t have much time left. Over last 2 weeks made,enough on calls to cover another year of CF! Still holding unleveraged SAND. Delaying next entry until we have more clarity. Hopefully #2 idea holds, we retrace, get support and power up again. I knew $22 GDX was sledding but made sloppy exit when it dropped quickly (was busy at work and couldn’t monitor at open). Thanks for update and best of luck tomorrow.
As bad as miners looked, also realize DOW lost 400 from high to low point this afternoon. 2015 not shaping up to be cakewalk last 2 years have been for equities.
What do you think of natgas now? Nice rally today, and it seems like it broked 13SMA what you adviced to look week ago. Can it now rally for some time?
Alex…. how was your mom doing?
I thought sometimes about her and you.
See you D.V. tomorrow morning.
Trust you get some good sleep.
what a beautiful turn of events for the bullish people on gold and pm related items