Thinking

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I just wanted to post this before the close

The selling in Miners  is a little uncomfortable ,  because they should have put their daily cycle low in already. A break below that low is likely a failed 2nd daily cycle low.

GDX DCL

 

 

 

So a gap down tomorrow could be a failure.

This is GDX currently and it hasnt failed,  but a gap down would trap some.  It would cause losses.

GDX DEC 22 2

 

 

 

GDX looked good coming out of the gate, and many silver stocks looked very good just last week.  CDE, HL, ETC

Unfortunately due to this current weakness, some may want to step aside instead of risking a gap down and a failure, instead opting to watch and see if it reverses and get back in if it does, rather than risk losses.

At this point as seen in the bove chart,  it hasnt failed yet….but Its frustrating ,  this weakness on a holiday week with increasing volume has to be considered more than I expected.  I need to release this before close.

7 replies
  1. CS
    CS says:

    Energy failing too. Do we fall to $40 a barrel of oil? I just sold my energy ETFs and GDP Alex. The market schizophrenia is just too much to tolerate. I’ll reconsider energy and especially oil once we get down into the low $40’s if we fall that far.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Oil may be bottoming, but sometimes better safe than sorry. Oil is still above the recent lows, but NATGAS got smacked pretty hard here.
      And just to repeat, Gold isnt broken and Miners didnt break down, but I wanted to mention the negative possibilities in case the overnight action ws negative. Rough navigating the markets near the lows for sure!

  2. Cason
    Cason says:

    Thanks for update – these questions would have popped up on the last write-up otherwise. 🙂 I let my stops run on most of my new GDXJ positions from last week opting to eject out instead of crashing like last time. All commodities got ROCKED today and without meaningful dollar strength. I think there is some serious hatred at end of year – call it rebalancing or tax loss selling if you want. But this might be uphill for a few weeks regardless of cycles. Gonna try an overnight stab at bounce after huge move today but don’t recommend it. 24 hours or less.

  3. Cason
    Cason says:

    Had a horrificly bearish thought today to share. Last June was a huge, huge 2-stage move up. Dec-Feb 14 was slow at first then big blow off 3nd DCL, May was big move but those waiting for “the 2nd leg” left lonely and disappointed. Fall ’14 bounce has, other than about 3 days, been utter crap compared to the past. Point being that each successive bear market bounce has been weaker than the one prior. GLD chart will quickly confirm this. Takeaway is its not over. Sorry but felt need to share.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Well, I agree with the facts of that observation, it appears weaker than DEC 2013 / May 2014 but the implications remain to be seen.

      June 2013 lows and Oct 2008 lows looked really weak at the end of their first daily cycle, but the 2008 rally certainly lasted far longer than any of the ones you mentioned, so When I view things, I try to do so in that context. This “Could still be a bottoming process” …if it fails , thats what it is…a failure. if it sticks , it was just another type of bottom.

      I am planning a small report late tonight instead of tomorrow morning to address possibilities.

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        That is true. It is just one data point in a sea of information (but one that bears will yell loudly). Much more to consider. I’m with you on Nov ICL- that vol and price action wasn’t a random coincidence. But need to get 2nd cycle going…

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