I Think Its Time

After looking at a few thousand charts yesterday , I am thinking that it might just be time to take some positions if you dont have one.  Though we “COULD” dip down into a daily cycle low, I again have to wonder if that SMACK DOWN last Friday-Monday was the end of a short daily cycle.  THAT would mean we are in the 2nd DCYcle.   Also looking at charts of many Miners yesterday, they look like good set ups , some have very little downside risk vs what could be a nice %-Gain to the upside.  Take a look with me and see what you think. 

GOLD 4 hr chart this morning.  Looks pretty bullish as I write  (7:00 A.M.)

SO I mention above a possible future DCL with the Jobs report Friday, but this cup & Handle also looks like it could POP higher for a couple of days.  IF a DCL is still ahead, it THEN may only drop to a DCL that isnt  much lower than right here if break out of this cup/handle soon.   LOOK AGAIN at GOLD WKLY as of yesterday…

GOLD WKLY as of DEC 3  (Classic shake out if you ask me)

MINERS are very close to a shake out / recovery (Watch 20.18)

SO this is all lining up as BULLISH behavior, and now I have been saying that for 4 weeks!   I went through charts yesterday and captured quite a few Miners  that you should have a look at too. I am saying that at this point, (And I said it yesterday too) I would take a position if I didnt have one already. UPSIDE surprises can be pretty nice when GOLD/SILVER & MINERS set up like this.   We seem to be at that point where  ALL MINERS will rise together…thus the dartboard picture for the theme pic.  It looks like it might be a “Throw a dart and Buy at least a couple of these set ups”   lets see some charts and remember ,  “WHAT IF THE RECENT SLAM WAS A DCL?” this would be the start of the 2nd leg up …

SLW  is STRONG  (A buy when it reversed at the  50sma, or buy now in case of an upside pop and place a stop below the 50sma)

SSRI looks good RIGHT HERE above the 50sma (MANY SILVER STOCKS DO)  BUY

SSRI  another BULLISH  view

HMY  hasnt moved much, but LOTS of volume. It may be getting ready to POP. Low risk right  here,  or Buy above the 50sma for more confidence.

NG – Buy now

EGO has shown strength , and may break out  (and so has RIC as I always show here). They may be leading the way.  EGO doesnt really show the crash last Fri-Mon, does it?

Its a bit extended to enter here, but I wanted you to see the strength

EXK – Here is one that hasnt moved much, but a sweet double bottom low risk entry.  You can BUY NOW with a stop below Nov lows…or buy a break out above its 50sma,  or buy after it breaks above this trendline.  EXK is a good silver stock if you ask me.

Lastly  RIOM.  This has held up VERY NICELY….like RGLD and RIC  since its Deeper ICL lows.

When you find these, buy the dips and they can be core positions for the BUY & HOLD type, because they hold up well above their lows.

So the recent NOV ICL DIP in RIOM  was a buy, The FRIDAY dip was too.  HOWEVER, seeing how strong this has been in that above weekly chart,  I’d also take a partial position here and IF we get a dip into a future DCL , I’d just add. We may just break out here above the recent high near $2.70 and make a run for highs near $3.10ish.   Then a sideways move could form a cup & handle?  I drew the magenta line in case we drop to a DCL this week. THAT would be a great buy.  Tagging the trend line, inverse H&S , etc

SO you can see that your confidence MUST be getting stronger that we are at a Bullish point in Metals, right?  I know it can be scary, especially after last Friday & Monday , but honestly-  In my experience, THAT WAS EXTREMELY BULLISH shake out type action.  

Lets review for confidence :     IF out of the blue I just yelled…  “BUY MINERS!”  You’d think it was a shaky chance at best.  BUT remember – 

1. I had been looking for ICL lows since the end of OCTOBER. 

2. Miners bottomed on Wed & then I said here that  I saw a shake out FRIDAY NOV 7th & BOUGHT THEN.

3.   EACH FRIDAY after we had mini shake outs , and Smart Money looked to BUY BACK each drop.  THATS HOW BOTTOMS FORM, they shake out weak hands, strong hands enter and support price.

4. LAST FRIDAY was the Mother Of All Shake outs with the SWISS VOTE disguise , because the NO VOTE slammed it down Sunday & we saw “Someone”  started the rally Monday.

I reminded everyone here with these  GOLD DEC 1 chart s

THIS is the time to be brave and I hope by now you have a position (At least a small one) in case we get some more UPSIDE SURPRISES. I KNOW the downside risks cause a lot of fear, but you dont want to be chasing later either.  There are a few scenarios as to how this could play out, and yes, there could be a dip to a DCL soon, but also we could POP & RUN higher, break over the 50sma in Miners and a DCL might just drop and test that 50sma  (BUY!  Add to positions if you see that, I will report it here).  We also MAY have had a freak DCL slam down on Monday.  THEN we’d be in the 2nd DCycle, and the next pop could just run away upside, with short covering.  SO I AM SAYING…

With all the BULLISH shake out, buy back, bottoming going on…why not at least get SOME exposure at the lows, with lower risk since you set your stops below Nov lows, or below the 50sma if you own something above the 50sma  (SSRI for ex) etc.  I hope this has helped you to see some opportunities that look bullsih .  If I didnt know cycles at all, these chart set ups using strictly Technical Analysis are BULLISH and I would be recommending that you BUY at least a small position. Actually, that IS what I am doing now  : )

Thanks for being here And as always,   STAY FROSTY  -But I think the ICL (lows)  are behind us in NOV

~ALEX