THAT WAS BULLISH

Dec 2, 2014

 The move made by GOLD & SILVER  was very bullish in my opinion. Any pullback from here will be monitored, but likely as BUY opportunities.  The set up is great because it confirmed what I had been mentioning from Nov 7th,  that an ICL  (Those meaningful trade-able lows) was in place. We witnessed MANY shake outs each Friday along the way and FRIDAY,  ( That  1/2 day light volume day?  yeah right) … SHOOK THE FOUNDATIONS, but the RECOVERY was just as breathtaking if not more so. Lets examine what it means going forward.   This was what happened Before the SWISS VOTE on Gold and what happened AFTER the VOTE was “NO”.

GOLD – The shake out / Recovery was an explosive bull move.

Gold is currently down $13 as I write…is that concerning? …

This view shows that GOLD shot almost straight up back into that channel , and now appears to be bull flagging. Still bullish and inside that channel

In my opinion , this is even  better than before, let me explain why.  In this chart I had repeatedly pointed out the importance of the shake out below $1179 and how it had recovered. I wanted that price to hold, but it dropped below and lost that $1179 on Friday  .

Why is that good?  Because GOLD lost 1179 on the last trading day of November . Ahead of the SWISS VOTE that was already leaning toward being rejected.  Yes…On a weekly and a monthly it closed BELOW support and looked scary. Trust me,  MANY went short Friday into the close & MANY newsletters this weekend were admonishing the same. SO Monday  when GOLD opened down…You saw the results of a WEEKLY and now MONTHLY SHAKE OUT.  Shorts were forced to cover. and it looked like this .

Better yet, the shake out  (if it holds and I think it will) is a Weekly shake out &  a Monthly shake out since it occurred from close Nov 30 to open Dec 1.  Holding above $1179 going forward , after a double dip shake out , may leave MANY behind and possibly still holding shorts. If you read the public blogs, some still feel GOLD will fail here and when these shorts cover it could propel Gold nicely higher. Plenty of upside on this chart…its closer to oversold on a wkly.

WHAT is great about the recent shaking is that some MINERS are back near recent highs, so recovery is stronger than destruction in some, and Bullish SURPRISES TO THE  UPSIDE are evident.

RIC WEEKLY

VERY IMPORTANT HERE:

So since we had a shake out type move again for the 4th Friday in a row, and it appears that the ICL really was in   (in early Nov – Remember I was discussing it at the first Friday NOV 7th shake out) , Then its getting late,right? 4 weeks along.   And since those lows were not violated, it is time to consider these possibilities  —

1.   Did we crash & Bounce near the end of that DCYCLE , so that we are we at highs in that first Daily cycle? If so we could expect a dip down into a DCycle Low now.

2.  WHAT IF THAT was the DCL?   If so, the first Dcycle was absolutely  R.Translated and we then expect the 2nd dcycle to reach higher highs. 

3.  If  we will dip down into a DCL –  a great buying opportunity should present itself . However IF THAT was the DCycle low, todays dip is just a pause in the upside action.

I need to look into this further, but the reason I bring this up is because if we just saw a DCYCLE LOW in the form of a smack down – you would want to buy something sooner than later to have skin in the game. This would be the start of the 2nd dcycle and let me show you a few of those.

2008 lows in Miners  (In comparison we look like we’re  at that first sharp reversal, about to drift into a DCL, because that happened around day 15 too )

But notice the kind of ride up that 2nd dcycle put in, you don’t want to be locked out. Notice : After that first strong reversal…it drifted down for 5 days and then POP, gained it all back in 1 day. We could be at that POP reversal.

We often discus the June 2013 lows . The ICL then was not an easy ride either, but the 2nd dcycle was when you definitely wanted to be in.

SO I  wanted to take a look at SLV 2013 lows, because it too had a SLAM in the middle around day 14 or 15 .  NOT easy to ride.  Shaking and SLAM-DOWN galore.

Well, it slammed down around day 14  (RED ARROW) , paused 2 days , GAPPED Higher to new highs (Green arrow) because SILVER surged higher . sounds a little like now.well, before everyone could get GIDDY BULLISH it just drifted lower into a DCL from there. It actually dropped a little each day for weeks.  HOWEVER, when that DCL was in, you’d wish you were in, it ripped straight up.

ON THAT ABOVE  CHART , even if you bought “Something” at that green arrow and Silver drifted lower for those many days as shown…it took  2 days pop to re-gain that green arrow area.  What I am trying to say is that I STRONGLY still believe that we had our ICL at the  November lows. We could be at that green arrow  and endure a drift into a DCL from here – or we could have just had a short DCL and be on day 2.  EITHER WAY, I would want to own “Something”.  Tomorrows report will show some MINERS that are setting up.  For now…

This is GOLD & what I see and will report in the days ahead

GOLD POSSIBLE CYCLES  (Highs on day 16..or DCL is in- both are bullish)

GOLD 2 –  sideways pause and burst higher likely. Question is do we drop to a DCL, or did we just see one? Both are bullish.

SO IN CONCLUSION:  

The action in GOLD /SILVER was amazing! Monday was a blast back and the shorts got trapped again. That says that the real surprises are to the UPSIDE.

As mentioned in prior reports, there are some big footprints accumulating here at low prices.  yes, they keep dropping it down to scoop up the bargains, but BUY THE DIP is valid going forward.  We likely have a right translated daily cycle and can expect higher highs .  We may even have just seen a   new DAILY CYCLE LOW.  It will get clearer going forward, but today Miners are selling of on LIGHT VOLUME.  I will post some buying opportunities & stocks to watch  in individual equities likely tomorrow.

GDX CURRENTLY   (Very light selling so far)

I believe there are some really good buying opportunities in the days ahead,  I’ve seen the 2nd Dcycle out of an ICL make some very nice gains %-Wise.    You could even begin buying some MINERS now if you are ok with a little draw down IN CASE we dip into a DCL.  NOT HEAVY at these levels, just some skin in the game in case we get a pop.   Thanks for signing up everyone  I really appreciate your support and tomorrow I do plan on an earlier report.  Today was a very busy one , but thankfully not much happening in Metals and miners. Maybe just a buying opportunity : )

~ALEX