Nov 13 UPDATE

2:45 P.M. Nov 13.   (I apologize for the late “Alert” , the auto Email alert system apparently was down when I posted this)

Many have asked that I occasionally show what I watch during the day  and post here.  I don’t want to watch and report on every little wiggle, but there are interesting things to look at . Especially since this mornings report I showed a possible stab at a lower low still fitting the cycle counts & Elliot wave ,etc …so let me show you quickly what I am watching.  it is more bearish for Gold Miners, but…so far GDX and GDXJ  do remain above the 10sma on a daily chart  (not shown) .  So these are the intra-day wiggles that I look at.  More charts / less words here so I can post quickly .

GOLD looks fine  (so far) …many shake outs , but regains support areas.  (Click to enlarge)

If  “MINERS LEAD”..are they holding up ok?  They remain above the 10sma so far,  BUT…

GDX did break down as it reached the top of the channel (see chart for more)

 So I look closer – break down & Test?

 GDXJ is holding up & even bounced off of support after I captured this  (Click to open)

HOWEVER- THIS IS A BREAK OUT – and a nice one at that  (click)

My thoughts are that GOLD dropped and recovered today  , but what about overnight?

–  GDX looks to have broken support, its now bouncing as I write  (See 5 minute chart ) -will it recover or test & fail? 

–  DUST and JDST charts look as though GOLD & MINERS would make that slightly lower low mentioned in this mornings report.

–  If so …the dollar may break to new highs and roll over, and JDST and DUST could double top.

That would be a second scenario to what I have been thinking (thinking that THE lows are in).  It would be more like December , as I mentioned this morning.   please see this mornings report and look at that DEC chart of slightly lower lows .We could drop to a slightly new low and then recover. THEN maybe we can get a short covering rally like the NATGAS snap back?

Actually, here is that chart. 

So I’m not trying to scare anyone unnecessarily, but  as the markets change, we have to stay unbiased and allow things to just play out.   We try to get on the right side of the trade, try not to get run over in the mean time.  The above update is just how I manage my own positions as things unfold.  THINGS could recover  (Gold currently is) – Miners remain suspact , but again…still above the 10sma.  DAILY charts look ok.    Its overnight & tomorrow that make me wonder , and that JDST chart reversal

GDX part 2

CASH is a nice position in times of uncertainty too-  to deploy when the opportunity arises. SMALLER HOLDINGS also can be advantageous in uncertain times.  We’ll see what overnight and Friday have to offer.  Best wishes.

~ALEX