Where Do I Start?

November 3, 2014 

  Its hard to know where to start.  As I begin writing (Sunday night ) Gold is testing new lows, The $USD is at new highs,  But I am thinking GOLD may reverse Like ENERGY did!  I really want to keep this simple, but there’s nothing simple about the “THINGS” I am seeing, its getting exciting though!  I have so much to say that I have to do the Audio version.    About 98% of the feedback has been that Audio & later Video is the way to go.   Excellent results & feedback, thank you.  I did get a couple of emails saying that for some who do not use computers  much,  they still do not know how to use the audio, and can I still write everything out.   I apologize , but That will not work for this report.  I will try to write ‘enough’ , but It is going to be too lengthy and it takes me between 3-4 hrs to draw all the charts, upload all the charts, write about the charts, etc. I’ve already gathered hours of charts to try to explain what I am looking at.    PLEASE- do yourself a favor and follow the instructions on the link and learn to use the audio. It will be a better tool for you too

 

A QUICK MARKET UPDATE –      (  and then METALS & ENERGY)  Make sure your volume is turned up

 [RIGHT CLICK THIS LINK BELOW open in a new tab— CLICK “Download” , then click “OPEN”.   come back here and follow the charts]

  http://www.screencast.com/t/2UN2nptYnq

$TRAN   FROM OCT 21  (back in the uptrend)

 

As election Tuesday approaches,  I pointed out this ….

 

 

$TRAN  (Oct 29 weekly chart..   were we  1 week from a temporary top at elections?)

 

 

FRIDAY was explosive in all sectors after Japan makes its move – but is $TRAN losing steam nearing a temp top?  Notice : Volume is drying up

 

 

$SPX  posted OCT 29.   Is this is a test of the break down? We Need to break above blue trend line

 

 

Fridays surge answered that = Bullish  (But also nearing a temp top (elections)?

 

 

OCT 28-   I pointed out that prior breaks to new highs often followed by a pullback or sideways move  (not straight up) Elections?

 

 

IWC –  broke out, but is that a weak topping candle and again, light volume? Back test trend line (Elections) ?

 

So markets had a strong recovery from their sell off, but may need a break soon (Elections?).  Meanwhile the $USD is breaking to new highs and METALS AND MINERS got crushed.

I have been thinking that we were at meaningful lows, and many indicators that I use were pointing to that also.That means that the selling has been extreme!

How extreme?

 

 

 

I have been reading  many reports  (Safehaven & 321Gold ) & BLOGS and Forums , and there is DOOM & GLOOM. Even my technical analysis shows “Price Targets” that indicate Miners are going bankrupt- however in the extremes that we currently see…and when sentiment gets Extreme and Fear & Panic is in all of the headlines-  Often a new (RARE) technical outlook comes into play.  It can lead to short covering rallys, it can lead to “Shake outs”  & ” Sharp reversals” and so on.  It is normal technical analysis, but it is much more RARE, since it only happens at bloodbath extremes.  Therefore it is harder to predict, but one needs to be on the look out for it… it can be awesome.

 

Fresh on your mind should be the recent ENERGY SELL OFF.   Think about XLE and its recent crash. Headlines everywhere got Extremely Bearish. Some say Oil is going to $10.

Then I spotted this reversal and posted a report on Energy?  It was over…at least temporary lows were in.  We bought reversals  for at least a bounce / short covering rally (and now we may be seeing the higher lows that can also be bought).

 

 

Yes- dont forget that Energy just sold off SHARP, STEEP, SCARY and No one wanted anything to do with ENERGY… But it was a “BUY”.  So it may be best for us to review some of the current possible higher lows / buy set ups in ENERGY and then I will get into what might be happening in Metals & Miners.  I always look for 5 waves in moves and a-b-c corrective moves, but I dont know all the E.W. rules,  so feel free to add to the “Comments” if you are absolutely sure of a “Rule” that will help myself & others. Just charts and AUDIO from here…

 2 ways to view XLE possibility  (Bullish 1st & Cautious  2nd )

 

 

 

The above are Weekly however,  and take time to play out.  For now I see Bullish set ups in ENERGY on daily charts, so the following charts are set ups to point that out in Energy ( AND INCLUDE COAL IN THAT TOO)

 

FIRST A LESSON USING PEIX  –  a reversal was pointed out here  in the energy report OCT 20    (Back to audio)

 

 

The lesson for buying opportunities is written  on the chart – for understanding some of my other energy charts

 

 

PEIX WKLY (Stay Frosty)

 

 

With that above lesson on what to look for daily & weekly…more charts ( The first 2 from last Fridays post as a reminder )

 

 

 

MRO

 

Read these charts for advice “BUYING” if needed

 

WTI

 

 

 

WLL DAILY

WLL WKLY (extra support)

 

EXXI

 

 

GDP

 

 

CPE

 

These are here for you to examine set ups & choose if you wish to enter one (or two).

  I DO NOT BUY EVERYTHING I POST….HOW COULD I ?

 

So the XLE CRASH, HEAVY MELT DOWN in ENERGY caused a lot of Panic,  Fear, Articles saying that the XLE had broken to new lows, broken 2011 support and would enter free fall

And then it reversed SHARPLY . What may have started as short covering began to gain traction… click on this chart.

NOTICE:  “TECHNICALS WERE BROKEN”  is what you were reading , but that reversal is a TECHNICAL BULLISH PATTERN AT EXTREMES

  ( Hint Hint:  Remember that possibility for GOLD/MINERS )

 

 

Could that happen to MINERS/METALS?  Yes.  Monday , Nov 3??  Who knows, but soon, because the extremes seen now have caused conditions to produce that type of great reversal and rally in the past. In Fact,  it is so scary and fearful in Miners land, that you hear about all the Miners going bankrupt soon, Gold is now thought to be ready to plunge BELOW $1000 and closer to $800.

I LOVE articles like that , and a BPGDM reading of Zero, and “High volume break downs” breaking all support, no end in sight ! Yes,  breaking support and causing PANIC VOLUME (like energy was) . I am watching and should be ready for a snap back rally   ( and I think it could be  MUCH sooner than you are reading about on 321Gold) .

 

– Let me mention that I am not talking about JORDAN ROY BYRNE. I believe His article was written around OCT 30 , & posted on OCT 31. I enjoy his free commentary currently because he is not extreme & Biased-

 

I am writing this Sunday Night after the New England / Denver football game, but its getting late (Midnight) . I have decided to do the audio Monday morning  and post this report first as an Energy report.

I will write up a separate Metals / Miners report after posting this Monday Morning.

 

~ALEX